These 3 charts show how Reform is on a roll and how 'the trend is Farage's friend'

With President Trump storming the White House, is Reform set to ride an even bigger wave?

Montage © Facts4EU.Org 2025

We are now past the point of denial by Sir Keir and Kemi

Note: Brexit Facts4EU.Org remains non-partisan. What follows is factual. If a seismic shift in the political landscape in the UK and in European countries is taking place, this should be reported.

In Part I the Facts4EU.Org think-tank revealed the dramatic changes in membership numbers of the UK's political parties in the last two years, never before presented in this way. In today's report (Part II) we follow this with three charts which support the first chart and will be equally disturbing for Sir Keir Starmer and Kemi Badenoch.

A Brexit Facts4EU.Org Series
Is the political landscape changing in the UK and Europe?

Part I - Are the UK’s legacy, established parties about to be ‘Reform-atted’?
Part II (This report) - Is there a limit on Reform's popularity?
Part III - In Europe, the socialist governments have been falling like dominoes

The fundamental question must soon be asked: "Has Reform now reached the game-changing moment?"

Brexit Facts4EU.Org Summary

The popularity of the main UK parties

[Source : Major national (GB) polling companies.]

1. The UK pre-2024 election years

© Brexit Facts4EU.Org 2025 - click to enlarge

2. From Jan 2024 to the present

© Brexit Facts4EU.Org 2025 - click to enlarge

3. Zooming in – From the general election to today

Note: We have added ‘trendlines’. These are linear and are generated by the data and are not manipulated in any way. They give a broad indication of the direction of travel, helping to average out all the individual polling results.

© Brexit Facts4EU.Org 2025 - click to enlarge

The facts are startling and must now be faced by the 'Establishment' parties

  • Sept 2023 : Reform started overtaking the Greens, who have now been left far behind
  • Jan 2024 : Reform overhauled the LibDems, and are now twice as popular as Sir Ed Davey's party
  • Jan 2025 : This month they are more or less in a 3-way tie with Labour and the Conservatives

Putting to one side how this translates into seats, it is extraordinary that in popularity terms a relatively new party has come so far, so fast. And 'the trend is their friend', as our final chart above shows very clearly.

No doubt the party is working on electoral calculations, ‘weightings’, sectoral analysis, and priority target seats, but these are worthless without the core support required to take advantage of regional, local, and population-specific targeting. Reform now seems to be reaching this tipping point, where their focus can now shift to the tactics and strategy to put Nigel Farage into No.10 Downing Street.

Coming up : The Trump effect in the US and the domino effect in Europe

In the third and final part of this report, Facts4EU will put the UK's apparent tectonic shifts in the political landscape into context with what is happening in the United States and particularly in Europe. Part III brings together the various elements - UK success for Reform, Trump's success in the US, and the inexorable rise in populism in the EU - and invites a measured re-assessment of what might be ahead for us all in the remainder of this decade.

Observations

The future for Reform in a Trumpian world

The figures above as well as the membership figures cited in Part I show a party on a rapid upward trajectory.

Unsurprisingly there have been some challenges along the way. Mr Farage has often pointed out that the mainstream media tend to hold Reform UK to a higher standard than the other parties, particularly in respect of issues such as the suitability of candidates. Let down by a candidate vetting company, says Farage, a small number of 'rotten apples' were chosen to stand as candidates. As soon as further background checks were conducted, however, these candidates were summarily removed. Facts4EU has reason to believe that the pendulum may now have swung too far the other way, but this evidence is purely anecdotal at this stage.

Follow the money

What is clear is that Reform has seen a large increase in its funding, due to the revenues from the astonishing growth in membership numbers in recent months, together with the effect of some significant donations from big donors who have switched to Reform from having helped to bankroll the Conservative Party. This new funding now allows Reform UK to expand its headquarters team considerably. To date it has been the poor relation in comparison with the funding that has poured into the Labour, Conservative, and LibDem parties over the years.

The big question now is whether Reform's infrastructure can keep pace with the rapid growth in its membership and popularity. If this transition can be achieved then the establishment parties will have even more reasons for concern.

To give one very recent example, many of Reform's senior team - including Nigel Farage - were in Washington DC for the Inauguration weekend. The opportunities over several days for major media coverage benefiting Reform's cause were legion but these went unpromoted and the press was mostly silent on this. If Reform now starts to ramp up its media output then Sir Keir Starmer, Kemi Badenoch, and Sir Ed Davey really should start to worry.

Finally, don't miss Part III of this report, where we put everything into context and ask some searching questions.

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[ Sources: Major national (GB) polling companies ] Politicians and journalists can contact us for details, as ever.

Brexit Facts4EU.Org, Wed 22 Jan 2025

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