This chart shows why Sir Keir and Kemi should both be very worried by Reform UK

UK’s and Europe’s old operating systems: Past the point where a simple reboot will work?

Montage © Facts4EU.Org 2025

How long before the UK’s legacy parties have their drives wiped and are ‘Reform-atted’?

Note: Brexit Facts4EU.Org remains non-partisan. What follows is factual. If a seismic shift in the political landscape in the UK and in European countries is taking place, this should be reported.

Wherever you look in the Western world these days, major democratic changes are afoot. These are reflected in the rise of newer - or newly reinvigorated - political parties both in the UK and across Europe, as well as in the ways in which political discourse and its news are now being conducted and promulgated.

Added to this we have the patriotic fervour and wokery rejection sweeping the United States with its incoming President, Donald Trump.

A Brexit Facts4EU.Org Series
Is the political landscape changing in the UK and Europe?

Part I (This report) - Are the UK’s legacy, established parties about to be ‘Reform-atted’?
Part II - Is there a limit on Reform's popularity?
Part III - In Europe, the socialist governments have been falling like dominoes

From the likes of Reform UK being dismissed as a shooting star, ‘disruptor party’ with no policies and no long-term future, it and some of the other ‘populist’ political parties across Europe are proving both resilient and increasingly successful – worryingly so, to some on the establishment conservative Right and the traditional Left.

Below, Facts4EU presents an ‘at-a-glance’ chart which we are sharing with our friends at CIBUK and GB News. This summarises the problems for Labour and the Conservatives. We will follow this in Part II with three more charts, showing the significance of an apparent change in voters' intentions.

Are we seeing something in the UK we haven’t seen for 100 years?

Previously the older, established parties could look down their long, metaphorically-aristocratic noses at these new kids on the block, and continue talking to each other in their echo chambers on WhatsApp or at dinner parties.

Past rumblings such as those caused by the Social Democrats in the early 1980s proved to be but a blip on the normally unruffled bi-polar landscape of the two established parties of the Left and Right. One has to go back to the First World War and the advent of Labour to find such a shift in the paradigm as we are now witnessing.

The trend in party memberships? There is only one clear winner

Headlines were created just before Christmas when the new Conservative leader Kemi Badenoch challenged Reform UK on its membership numbers.

Below Facts4EU has drawn on the latest available information from the Electoral Commission as well as the parties’ own statements to bring readers the change in membership numbers in the last two years. We then provide further information for each of the main parties.

It's one thing telling a pollster how you might vote in the next election. It's another thing to stump up cash to join a party and support it to win seats and become the next government. Below we show how four of the main parties have fared in the last few years.

Three out of the four major parties are in decline. One is outperforming the rest by a long way.

Brexit Facts4EU.Org Summary

1. Party memberships – Reform is rocketing

  • Labour : 370,450 at end Dec 2023 - down by 37,000 (-9%) since end-2022
  • Conservatives : 131,680 in Nov 2024 – down by 40,000 (-26%) since 2022
  • LibDems : 86,599 at end Dec 2023 – down by 11,000 (-11%) since end 2022
  • Reform UK : 181,521 on 18 Jan 2025 – UP by 143,500 (+260%) since May 2024

© Brexit Facts4EU.Org 2025 - click to enlarge

[In each case we have used the best and latest information available from : House of Commons Library | Electoral Commission | Conservative Party HQ | Reform UK, all as at 18 Jan 2025.]

Mrs Badenoch took on Mr Farage over membership numbers - and lost

When Kemi Badenoch attacked Reform UK on Boxing Day claiming its membership numbers were “fake”, she did so on ‘X, (formerly Twitter), so this instantly entered the public domain. Here is the Conservative leader’s tweet, followed by Nigel Farage’s response.

Nigel Farage’s response was swift.

This resulted in Mrs Badenoch with egg on her face, after Reform opened up its systems to some major national media organisations including Sky News and the FT. Reform got a clean bill of health, but Mrs Badenoch has not apologised.

Membership of the Labour Party - declining

The Labour Party’s membership figures are outliers, as most readers will know. The reason is partly because of its relationship with trades unions. It has two main classes of membership / supporters.

1. Party members: Individual members pay an annual fee, can attend conference and constituency meetings, are able to represent the Party and, if eligible, vote in party elections.

2. Affiliated supporters are members of an affiliate (i.e. levy-paying) trade union or another organisation. Their levy for Labour Party affiliate supporter status is deducted from their dues. They are entitled to attend all constituency Labour Party member meetings but can only attend Conference as visitors, and they can vote in leadership and mayoral candidate elections. However, affiliated supporters cannot represent the Party, nor can they vote on the selection of party representatives.

“As at 31 December 2023 the total individual membership of the [Labour] Party was 370,450 (2022: 407,455).”

- Party submission to Electoral Commission

The Labour Party's membership dropped by 37,000 (9%) in the course of one year.

The Membership of the Conservatives - declining

The Conservative Party does not reveal its membership numbers in its submissions to the Electoral Commission.

The best we currently have is a statement saying that the Party had 131,680 members last year, which we know because this was the figure released at the time of the ballot of members to elect Kemi Badenoch as party leader in November 2024. (Only 95,189 members actually voted.)

This has fallen from 172,437 when Liz Truss was elected in 2022, representing a drop of over 40,000 (26%) in just two years. At the start of this century things were very different. In 2001 the Party had 328,000 members.

Membership of the LibDems - declining

The LibDems say on their website that “More than 90,000 people are Liberal Democrat members.”

In fact the latest figures they submitted to the Electoral Commission (to the end of December 2023) show 86,599 members, and these include what are known as ‘registered supporters’, who are not the same thing.

The LibDems' membership dropped by 10,900 (11%) in the course of one year.

“As at 31 December 2023 there were 86,599 (2022: 97,493) members and registered supporters of the Party.”

- Party submission to Electoral Commission

Membership of Reform UK - soaring

At the time of writing, Reform UK has 183,521 members.

We know this from the live ticker on its website, which has been checked by various news organisations including Sky News, not known for its support of Reform.

In May last year, Reform were claiming only 40,000 members, which means their numbers have risen by 260% in just eight months.

Reform UK’s advance is relentless

Regardless of any considerations which readers may have about political parties, there can be no question but that Reform UK is on a relentless and rapid rise. This is especially noticeable when it happens in the world of politics, where a party can take a couple of decades to make an impact on the electorate.

Reform is the only party seeing a consistent and significant rise in electoral popularity and this shows no signs of abating.

What makes this all the more remarkable is that they have yet to develop a full and established footprint across the country.

Progress on this front has been swift under their new Party Chairman Zia Yusuf, but they still have to find and staff local constituency offices in around one-third of all Parliamentary seats.

Coming up in Part II, it doesn't get any better for Sir Keir and Kemi

In Part II we have analysed the voting intentions of the British people and will present three charts which provide even less comfort for the Labour and Conservative parties. Finally in Part III we will summarise the groundswell that has been felt in so many countries around the world.

Observations

Regardless of what is said about each of the main parties and their policies, the simple facts are that Reform UK are currently wiping the floor with the Establishment parties when it comes to its increasing membership numbers.

The party’s structure continues to be that of a limited company, which means the members do not effectively control the party. We are told that the necessary changes to the structure are underway. In the interim, this has not stopped people in their thousands from signing up on Reform UK's website and paying their £25 annual fee (or £10 for young people).

Given that there are ostensibly over four more years before the next general election, a great deal can happen. The establishment parties will hope to see some major trip-ups by Reform, while Reform itself will keep doing what it has been doing and will hope its progress continues.

Coming up

In the second part of this mini-series we will look at voting intentions, and then in Part III we will review how European establishment governments have been tumbling like dominoes. Put together in one 3-part report, these changes are really quite extraordinary.

Please, please help us to carry on our vital work in defence of independence, sovereignty, democracy and freedom by donating today. Thank you.

[ Sources: House of Commons Library | Electoral Commission | Conservative Party HQ | Reform UK ] Politicians and journalists can contact us for details, as ever.

Brexit Facts4EU.Org, Tues 21 Jan 2025

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