In EU, ‘centre-left’ governments in unstable environments have been falling like dominoes
In the US, the Republican President Trump is firmly back in the White House
In the UK, the centrist establishment parties are now under pressure from a surging Reform UK
Montage © Facts4EU.Org 2025
In Part III of our series, Facts4EU.Org presents a wider perspective on seismic shifts in voters’ thinking
The US has swung right with the election and inauguration of Donald Trump, and many EU countries now have so-called ‘far-right’ parties in coalition government.
In France – the EU’s No.2 economy - the right-wing National Rally led by Marine Le Pen was the most popular party in the national elections last year but was kept out of government by improbable coalitions of the Left and Right. President Macron is now on his third prime minister since the election just seven months ago and the country is looking increasingly ungovernable.
© Brexit Facts4EU.Org 2025 - click to enlarge
Note: Brexit Facts4EU.Org remains non-partisan. What follows is factual. If a seismic shift in the political landscape in the UK and in European countries is taking place, this should be reported.
Brexit Facts4EU.Org Summary
- US goes firmly to the right under President Trump
- 21 national parliamentary elections in EU countries, 2023-2024
- Fragmented, dysfunctional, and short-lived governments are the norm
- Right-leaning parties have generally improved their vote share
- UK bucked the trend in July 2024, electing Sir Keir Starmer’s Labour with a massive majority
- Now the UK’s trend seems to be shifting, with Reform UK on the march
The prevailing wind is coming from the Right
In this final part in our US Inauguration mini-series on the changes taking place in the global political landscape, the Brexit Facts4EU.Org think-tank summarises recent developments in the EU and the US and analyses the potential importance to the UK.
We are sharing these reports with our friends at CIBUK and GB News.
Despite our numerous caveats below, it can be said that more centre-left EU governments are set to fall this year, starting next month with Germany, the EU’s No.1 economy. In another indication, in the EU Parliament the number of MEPs from the ‘far-right’ has increased by 50% following the election last June.
A Brexit Facts4EU.Org Series
Is the political landscape changing in the UK and Europe?
Part I - Are the UK’s legacy, established parties about to be ‘Reform-atted’?
Part II - Is there a limit on Reform's popularity?
Part III (This report) - In Europe, the socialist governments have been falling like dominoes
With so many countries now ‘dressing to the Right’, in mid-2024 the British electorate went against the grain and voted for a Labour government.
In Parts I and II this week we produced ‘at-a-glance’ charts showing how Labour’s popularity has subsequently plummeted since the election and how it and the other two main parties (Conservatives and LibDems) have seen their membership numbers fall, as Reform UK’s have soared.
In this final part we consider the UK’s political landscape
in a European and US context.
Commenting exclusively to Facts4EU on our reports, Reform’s Deputy Leader Richard Tice MP was in ebullient form.
“Reform is soaring in membership and in the polls, as people realise so much of Britain is broken.
“They recognise that only Reform’s policies can save Britain and make people better off.”
- Richard Tice MP, Deputy Leader, Reform UK, Thurs 23 Jan 2025.
The UK’s No.1 trading partner in the World has a new, pro-UK President
The 47th President of the United States, Donald J Trump, did not hang about, as we predicted in our article here. His speech on Monday following his inauguration was full of action, following up on his promises during the election campaign.
The challenge now for the British Government is how to take advantage of the natural warmth the new President feels for the UK, compared to the ambivalence and hostility of his predecessor, Joe Biden.
This could have a significant effect on the UK economy, if the UK manages to avoid the tariffs which President Trump is planning to impose on EU imports into the States.
The rotating smorgasbord that is the political map of the EU
It would be fair to say that any attempt to categorise most governments in EU member countries as being ‘Left’, ‘Centre-Right, or ‘Right’ (or sub-categories thereof) is fraught with difficulties. The reasons are many and various :
- The majority of EU countries are so fragmented politically it takes months (sometimes over a year) to form coalition governments.
- These coalition governments are often short-lived, lasting months or even weeks, and ‘caretaker’ governments are almost the norm in some countries.
- Alliances between Hard-Left, Centre-Left, Centre-Right, Right, and Far-Right parties are relatively common, in order to gain slim majorities in parliaments.
- Some parties called ‘Far-Right’ embrace policies typically associated with ‘Far-Left’ parties, such as high spending, big state, pro-Putin, etc.
- Conversely on the Left there are parties which are strongly anti-immigration and nationalist.
Brexit Facts4EU.Org Summary
The cold winds blowing across the EU for Centre-Left governments
- 2023 : 10 general elections
- 2024 : 11 general elections
© Brexit Facts4EU.Org 2025 - click to enlarge
The above numbers for EU national elections per year are complicated by some countries having had to hold more than one election. For example, Bulgaria put its people through three elections in 2023-2024 – and still they do not have a stable government.
In summary, the hundreds of EU parties and all their potential combinations and alliances are so numerous it would take battalions of psephologists such as Sir John Curtice to attempt to categorise and define them all. Even then, the conflicting policy objectives within coalition governments – and even within parties themselves - make efforts to describe a particular country’s political stance almost impossible.
Despite the complications, a right-wing trend in the thinking of electorates is discernible
The best we can do is to report on trends as we see them in the national moods of the electorates. The fact these are not generally reflected in the colour of governments resulting after general elections (due to unlikely coalitions forming) must make the electorates despair.
Perhaps this is why turnouts in some countries are so low. For example, in Bulgaria’s latest election in October 2024 only 33% of those eligible actually voted. Two-thirds of the electorate apparently did not see the point of going out to vote for the second time last year, only to see another parliament with MPs from eight parties squabbling amongst themselves over who should rule.
Perhaps the most interesting political shifts have been taking place in Italy, France, Germany, Finland, Austria, and the Netherlands. We summarise these as follows :-
- Italy : Government now led by right-wing Georgia Meloni of ‘Brothers of Italy’ (invited to Inauguration)
- France : Right-wing Marine Le Pen’s National Rally won highest vote share but denied power by coalitions
- Finland : Right-wing parties now part of coalition government
- Austria : Far-right won highest vote share, government still in flux
- Netherlands : Right-wing Geert Wilders' party won, now in coalition government
- Germany : Far-right AfD party starts winning in State elections, set to do well in Feb’s general election
Observations
Inevitably some parts of this report are subjective by nature. We have listed facts where we have them, but the overall picture in many countries in the EU is somewhat confused. We believe our characterisations of political leanings are reasonable, although readers may have slightly different views on some of the countries and parties.
Meanwhile in the UK, the usually stable political landscape has been seeing some changes which are comparatively rare for our very old and well-established democracy. To some degree, Brexit has been the catalyst for this but the Covid lockdowns and the increasing degree of concern from the public over immigration – legal and illegal – and over Net Zero have also played their part.
How did we get here?
Perhaps some of the rising tide of disquiet really started with the anti-Brexit stance of Theresa May’s Conservative government which resulted in Parliament seemingly not willing to enact the will of the majority. As further huge immigration rises were reported, along with disturbing information coming to light regarding Covid measures and most definitely regarding terrorist incidents, one party benefited above all others: Reform UK.
We would now seem to have a United States under firm, right-wing leadership, an EU bloc of Left and increasingly Right-wing parties unable to agree internally and even unable to agree within each member country, and a United Kingdom which might be within three years of returning a government involving a party never before considered to be a true contender.
‘Did someone mention the economy?’
Within all of this we also have the old chestnut of “It’s the economy, Stupid.” The simple fact is that the UK has been experiencing low levels of growth – and particularly low or stagnant growth in living standards – for decades, and the gap with the United States is becoming wider than the Grand Canyon.
With a Labour government having repeatedly promised an overriding focus on growth, the current indications for the economy are pointing in the opposite direction. If this continues, as we believe it will, any party which can promise a credible alternative designed to create wealth is likely to increase its standing in the polls dramatically.
With Reform’s focus on immigration and what might be called ‘societal issues’ such as wokery, de-banking, etc, it has yet to break through on the economy. If it starts to do so this year, we may really see some further, very dramatic shifts in voting intentions which could build on the momentum already seen to date. Together with a larger infrastructure based on its new funding levels, and a democratisation of the party, we are unable to see the likelihood of any ‘plateauing’ in Reform’s rise which has been predicted by the establishment parties.
It will be interesting to see whether Labour and the Conservatives have any plan to counter this fast-growing threat to their dominance, and also whether Reform successfully manages its transition to being a realistic party of government. Right now it seems that this is Reform’s to lose.
Reminder : Brexit Facts4EU.Org remains non-partisan and we judge parties based on our core aims of independence, sovereignty, democracy, and freedom.
COMING UP... A Conservative Stance on Economic Growth
In tomorrow's edition of Facts4EU, we plan to bring a Conservative view on the issue which is taxing many minds currently: that of the UK's disappointing growth record. Assuming we can resolve the technical issues, we hope to bring readers an exclusive, live-streamed broadcast of a talk from Oxford University by a senior Conservative thinker, on how to tackle the country's growth crisis. We are certain this will prove to be very interesting and should enliven the debate now raging around Rachel Reeves' economic policies. Don't miss it!
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[ Sources: National electoral commissions | ] Politicians and journalists can contact us for details, as ever.
Brexit Facts4EU.Org, Thurs 23 Jan 2025
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