Boris plan is not Brexit on 31 October, and it splits the United Kingdom

Northern Ireland to stay in EU Single Market, border in Irish Sea

Transition period remains, meaning UK stays in EU with no say until 01 Jan 2022 at earliest

Brexit Facts4EU.Org has analysed the Government’s new ‘offer’ to the EU in respect of Brexit. Two documents were released publicly by the Government yesterday. We understand that another 44 pages of legal text have also been presented to the EU, but this document is not available.

What this is – and what it is not

Firstly, this is NOT a new deal with the EU. The documents relate principally to the infamous ‘Northern Ireland Backstop’. This is NOT a “ripping up” of Mrs May’s surrender treaty. The documents go into no detail on all the other aspects of Mrs May’s Withdrawal Agreement and Political Declaration, beyond some aspirations. Based on the two documents, here is our summary :-

Brexit Facts4EU.Org Summary

The United Kingdom is to be split until at least 2026, more likely 2030
The UK will not leave the Single Market and Customs Union until at least 01 Jan 2022, more likely 2024
The six counties of Northern Ireland will then in effect stay in the EU Single Market for four further years
Northern Ireland will, however, be outside the EU’s Customs Union, but only after the Transition Period
The UK as a whole will enter a ‘Transition Period’ on 01 Nov 2019 – under EU laws but with no say over them
This Transition Period will last until at least 01 Jan 2022, and most probably until at least 01 Jan 2024
At the end of the Transition Period Great Britain will finally be free, but Northern Ireland will not
Positive: UK Government no longer intends to ‘align closely’ with EU laws after the end of the Transition Period

Key passages from the Prime Minister’s letter to President Juncker

Readers can read the whole of the PM’s letter to the unelected EU Commission President Juncker here. Below we present some key passages:-

“The backstop acted as a bridge to a proposed future relationship with the EU in which the UK would be closely integrated with EU customs arrangements and would align with EU law in many areas. That proposed future relationship is not the goal of the current UK Government. The Government intends that the future relationship should be based on a Free Trade Agreement in which the UK takes control of its own regulatory affairs and trade policy. In these circumstances the proposed “backstop” is a bridge to nowhere, and a new way forward must be found.”
“This Government proposes a New Deal for Northern Ireland”
“It provides for the potential creation of an all-island regulatory zone on the island of Ireland, covering all goods including agrifood.”
“This regulatory zone must depend on the consent of those affected by it. This is essential to the acceptability of arrangements under which part of the UK accepts the rules of a different political entity. It is fundamental to democracy.”

Key passages from the Government’s “Proposals for an amended protocol on Ireland/N.I.”

Readers can read the whole of the Government’s proposals here. Below we present some key passages:-

“The proposal set out in this note would see regulatory checks applying between Great Britain and Northern Ireland”
“7 b. In addition, Northern Ireland would also align with all relevant EU rules relating to the placing on the market of manufactured goods. This would reinforce the arrangements above by ensuring that regulatory checks can be implemented at the boundary of the zone, as appropriate and in line with relevant EU law, minimising the potential for non-compliance.”
“7 c. The governance framework for this zone would be as set out in the previous Protocol.”
“9. To support this system of controls at the boundary of the zone, traders moving goods from Great Britain to Northern Ireland would need to notify the relevant authorities before entering Northern Ireland, in order to provide the necessary information to undertake the appropriate checks, and, where appropriate, prevent the entry of products prohibited or restricted by EU rules.”
“12. The zone of regulatory compliance will mean that Northern Ireland will be, in significant sectors of its economy, governed by laws in which it has no say. That is clearly a significant democratic problem.”

Reaction from UK politicians and from the EU

Jeremy Corbyn : “It’s worse than Theresa May’s deal.” - Sky News interview.

Arlene Foster (Leader of the DUP in Northern Ireland) : “The DUP has always indicated that the United Kingdom must leave the EU as one nation and in so doing that no barriers to trade are erected within the UK.

“This offer provides a basis for the EU to continue in a serious and sustained engagement with the UK Government without risk to the internal market of the United Kingdom. It will require changes to the draft withdrawal treaty and we welcome the fact that all sides now recognise that requirement in order to secure agreement.

“These proposals would ensure that Northern Ireland would be out of the EU Customs Union and the Single Market as with the rest of the United Kingdom.” - Official DUP statement.

[Note: See our ‘Observations’ section below.]

Steve Baker MP (Chairman of the ERG group of Conservative MPs) : “The PM’s made a very significant move here. We said we wanted to 'Chuck Chequers' and at last we have a Prime Minister putting an FTA as a destination. But we haven’t yet seen that destination set out in full and there are other problems with the WA”

Stephen Kinnock MP (informal leader of around 25 rebel Labour MPs) : “If Dublin and Brussels are happy, then we’re happy.”

Meanwhile it seems that the 21 Conservative arch-Remainer MPs who had the whip withdrawn two weeks ago are likely to back the deal. With the DUP, ERG, and Labour rebels on board this would be enough to see the deal pass the House of Commons.

EU Commission official speaking off the record : “The proposal is fundamentally flawed. If it is take it or leave it, we better close the book and start talking about the modalities of an extension. If they want to commit a stupidity, it should be fully their responsibility.”

EU Parliament : “The Brexit Steering group at the @Europarl_EN is absolutely not postive about PM Johnson’s proposals. It doesn’t provide the necessary safeguards for Ireland.” (Guy Verhofstadt MEP, EU Parliament Brexit Co-ordinator)

Observations

It is tempting to say that none of the above matters, because the EU will reject the new proposals. Nevertheless we felt it was important to cover the Johnson Government’s first substantive documents to the EU.

Do they represent a plan for Brexit? No. Not even close. They relate to the frankly ridiculously-overstated issue of a border in Northern Ireland – an issue we have covered many times.

It is relevant to point out, however, that the fresh proposals represent an enormous shift in UK Government policy. They are prepared to put a border down the middle of the Irish Sea, thereby separating an important part of the UK from the mainland. The EU will at least be cock-a-hoop at this.

As to why the DUP have done an apparent U-turn, one must wonder why this is. Yesterday, after the Government’s documents were released, we picked up an announcement from the Government while the media was focusing on Boris Johnson.

The Rt Hon Julian Smith MP, Secretary of State for Northern Ireland, announced that the province is to receive more than half of the new UK Growth Deals fund, designed to support economic growth, create jobs or invest in local projects. We thought readers might like to know.

Even if the new Boris Johnson proposals are a bluff, they still matter

Mrs May’s surrender document is an abomination on so many levels. To remind readers, here is our recent one-pager on this. Even if the new Prime Minister expects the EU to reject the new proposals, these allow the EU to persist in their fantasy world, believing that the majority of what they imposed on Mrs May is in any way reasonable.

At some point someone has to stand up to this dysfunctional and increasingly-totalitarian regime, and tell it like it is.

Attempting to appease a dictator has consequences. The British people learnt that lesson at great cost in the last century.

Please help us to keep going if you can, with a donation. We acknowledge them all. We just can't keep going at this critical time without the help of you, the public, as we have no other source of funds.

Brexit Facts4EU.Org, 03 Oct 2019

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Reader Comments 19

1. Patrick F , Thursday, October 03, 2019, 06:45:

My 'X' heads towards the box on a ballot paper that says 'Brexit Party'.

2. Shattered , Thursday, October 03, 2019, 07:02:

I hope that the Brexit Party trounces the other three but sadly I fear that the UK is going to end as of 2020. We will only have one United Socialist States of Europe from then onwards.

3. James Bertram , Thursday, October 03, 2019, 07:44:

'Positive: UK Government no longer intends to ‘align closely’ with EU laws after the end of the Transition Period'
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Well that depends on who is in power at the end of the Transition Period. May and the 200 creeps who voted confidence in her are still there in the Tory Party (expect the 21 traitors to be re-instated after the next election). They may well push to align closely.
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Too, at the end of the transition period, how much of our army, our intelligence services, our fishing grounds will have been given away?
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And how much will it cost? What of the 39 billion? Will there be 13 billion payable each year while in transition? How long will transition be - and will it be extended, perhaps endlessly? Are we liable in this period to bale out the EU in a financial crisis?
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And what of our laws? We will be subjugated by the European Courts during transition.
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In fact, all the problems outlined in Facts4EU one-pager still seem to be there.
https://facts4eu.org/news/2...

4. Paul A , Thursday, October 03, 2019, 07:55:

Does Boris’s proposed new deal return our territorial waters which are a national asset and therefore should be nothing to do with the EU? Perhaps we should be demanding one 1/27th of all EU national assets?
Does the ECJ have any say whatsoever over the (institutionally biased) legal system or our country? Does the EU continue to retain control over our armed forces - as signed away by Mrs May? Do we still have to give them £39 billion and then continue to pay, ad infinitum, into the eu coffers in return for absolutely no benefit?
Are we still liable for billions of Euros when the EU27 economies and banks collapse?
Or is this just 'Surrender document Mk 2'?

5. Carol W , Thursday, October 03, 2019, 08:19:

Johnson is either desperate for a deal and prepared to consign his party to the bin or he knows that no deal he can conjure will get through Parliament, so he's just tick-tocking towards 31 October when he and Cummings will spring the trap on Remain.
I just know that I'm heartily sick of all the game playing and I want payback for the last three years: the electorate deserve massive reform of government and institutions and we need to make sure we get it.

6. Not4EU●, London , Thursday, October 03, 2019, 08:23:

The letter certainly reads as a border down the Irish Sea, the original EU proposal to annex NI, & something that 'no British PM could agree to' no matter how 'temporary' - PAYE was brought in as a 'temporary' measure. There are no references to the other horrors in the legally binding WA, just to the non-binding PD & almost ignored references to a transition period. James, 3, makes very pertinent points. This is not leaving the EU, which is the mandate voted for.
Now, I am heartily sick of the political machinations that I see. I don't appreciate the 'games' that they're playing with our future - saying one thing & 'maybe' meaning another. It's dishonest. How is this supposed to 'rebuild trust'? All it's doing is confirming that they haven't changed. It will destroy what little trust there is in those who have shown themselves to have integrity if they're supporting on the basis of this letter. The letter alone will have lost the Cons people support. It looks, again, like party before country & their electorate employers, & they are yet again misreading the public & the disgust in which they all currently are held.
Fool us once, shame on you. Fool us twice, shame on me. We won't be fooled again.

7. Sydney Ashurst , Thursday, October 03, 2019, 08:23:

I cannot see Merkel buying it. In the blame game they will have to mull it over and not reject it out of hand. But they will find it unacceptable and time is short.
The certainty is a meaningful vote no.4 will not pass muster in Parliament, it will be rejected.
Tick tock.
The Commission cooked up the most diabolical WA showing great determination to keep the UK in. Together with the media they scared the wits out of a majority of MP's, who rant and rage we will not accept a NO DEAL.
If a further extension is requested for the Benn Act which has no purpose due to the extensions terms, do the Council grant it.
A decision one way or the other has to be made on the 17th and 18th.
The imponderables are what the opposition parties in the UK Parliament will do, and achieve, in the days left. They cannot get the courts to convict the PM for a crime that has not been committed. Plus the Benn Act seeks a non-negotiable outcome.
A further extension leads into the unknown with an election bound to take place. A change of Government still leaves Article 50 on life support.
For the EU Council to ponder on - A labour Government has suggested it still wants to negotiate an exit deal, not the WA. They would then hold another referendum requesting the Public to authorise the new agreement.
Happy days!!!

8. Shattered , Thursday, October 03, 2019, 09:25:

It is common purpose and other un-patriots hard at work to destroy for their masters......

9. kzb , Thursday, October 03, 2019, 11:23:

The EU will not agree this proposal. The whole idea of the Irish Border problem is to stop Brexit. Let's face it, if they WANTED to solve this Irish border problem they could do so easily.
The technical solutions are there, even their own experts agree this. Notice the INSTANT dismissal by the Teashop, before any of their experts had chance to advise on it.
This also applies to the UK Remainers. They very much need to rubbish this proposal and so they have. The Irish Border has intentionally been built up as the Achilles Heel of Brexit.

10. SAFC. , Thursday, October 03, 2019, 12:21:

The 'Party Before Country' Tories, putting the party before the country AGAIN. (Sadly including the So-Called 'Spartans', and at the same time some of the Remainiac Tory Rats, by the looks of it). Another thing, has anyone ever seen an itemised invoice for the £39 billion? HAS ANYONE RELEVANT EVER ASKED FOR ONE? And lastly, is Traitor Johnson intending to give the armed forces and security services away, just as Traitor May intended to do?

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