“Nigel stole my lunch money” - Rachel’s ‘Brexit Budget’

These definitive charts show why she’ll need a different excuse

GB News publishes the unsurprising proof that the Chancellor can’t blame Brexit for her tax hikes

Montage © Facts4EU.Org 2025

Welcome to the first of our Pre-Budget Specials, in association with GB News

Part I : "The definitive, slam-dunk debunk of the Chancellor's false claims"

Reeves’s desperate attempt to resurrect Project Fear fails two most basic tests

When Rachel Reeves went to the International Monetary Fund’s annual meeting in Washington and told them Brexit “will reduce the UK’s long-term productivity by 4%, relative to remaining in the bloc”, it must have felt like old times.

Finally the UK's Chancellor of the Exchequer was back amongst anti-Brexit officials and politicians again and could safely rehearse her new excuse for raising taxes in her budget in just four weeks’ time. For Ms Reeves and her Treasury officials it would have been akin to a reassuring trip down memory lane, dredging up discredited Brexit forecasts from nine years ago and rekindling old myths.

In this first – and devastating – exclusive pre-Budget report for GB News, the think-tanks Brexit Facts4EU and The Campaign for an Independent Britain (CIBUK), together with the Rt Hon Sir John Redwood, bring readers the latest economic data proving that Brexit is not to blame for the Chancellor’s budget woes. We also have the exclusive comments of Richard Tice MP on this report.

“It doesn’t get more damning for the Chancellor than this.”

Richard Tice MP commenting exclusively on this report to Brexit Facts4EU, CIBUK, and GB News

“It doesn’t get more damning for the Chancellor than this, does it? She seems to have pinned all her hopes on trying to fool the British public that Brexit is somehow to blame for the economic crisis she has plunged us into. Well I’ve got news for her. The public isn’t easily fooled.
“These great charts from the respected Brexit Facts4EU and The Campaign for an Independent Britain – based on the official statistics excluding inflation - show clearly that Brexit Britain has outperformed the EU’s finest.
“This is real growth. 12% since the Referendum. We’ve beaten Germany – in fact our economic growth has been more than double theirs. We’ve beaten France and we’ve beaten Italy. We wish them well, but this is something to be celebrated and it shows what a great, resilient country we are. We went through all the turmoil of a Remainer Parliament trying to wreck our chances but we came out on top, despite that.

“But I know we can do even better. Given the right policies from a government that really is committed to being the best that we can be, we can build on this growth.
“Instead of this we have Rachel from Accounts, who has just lost what little credibility she once had. What a shame she’s spent her time on arguments she lost nine years ago instead of focusing on what we need to drive our prosperity as a country.
- Richard Tice MP, Deputy Leader, Reform UK, 30 Oct 2025

SUMMARY - The two basic facts which torpedo Rachel’s ‘Brexit lifeboat’

Since the UK’s EU Referendum in 2016:

GDP has grown by 12.0% in real terms - faster than the EU’s Top 3 economies
Employment is up by an incredible 2.4 million

Brexit Britain's economic growth - The uncomfortable truth for the Chancellor

© Brexit Facts4EU.Org 2025 - click to enlarge
[Source(s) : Office for National Statistics | EU Commission (Eurostat), accessed Oct 2025]

“It’s ridiculous for the Chancellor to blame Brexit for her deficit.”

The Rt Hon Sir John Redwood commenting exclusively on this report to Brexit Facts4EU, CIBUK, and GB News

“It’s ridiculous for the Chancellor to blame Brexit for her deficit. The vote was 9 years ago.
“The only reason Rachel Reeves has a black hole in her 2026 budget is her own overspending. Taxing more now will make things worse, slowing the economy, losing us more jobs and investment.
“This is re run of last year’s budget, a Groundhog production. It is knocking confidence with threats of tax rises. It is spending excessively on public sector pay rises without productivity gains, on too many illegal migrants they do not stop, and on a surge in sick notes for life where people should be helped into work.
“Brexit is saving us £30 bn a year to help her get a grip on UK finances.”
- The Rt Hon Sir John Redwood, 30 Oct 2025

1. GDP has grown faster than the EU’s Top 3 economies

The OBR’s forecasts were works of fiction. They originally came from two reports produced by George Osborne and HM Treasury before the Referendum, both anti-Brexit. At that time around 13 forecasts from a variety of sources predicted a range of falls in GDP and these were then averaged. This is where the phantom ‘GDP will be lower by 4%’ mantra came from. And yes, the Treasury reports stated that the negative effects of a Leave vote would start immediately after the vote, NOT after the UK had left the EU. We have therefore followed HM Treasury in measuring from the Referendum.

Incredibly, the forecast drop was predicted to happen over a period of 15 years, despite the fact that neither the Treasury nor the OBR have proved themselves reliable at forecasting even six months ahead. As with all myths, this became contorted over time, to the point where there are people on social media today confidently asserting that GDP has fallen by 4% as a result of Brexit.

In fact, GDP in real terms (excluding inflation) has risen by 12%, beating the EU's top three economies.

Real growth in GDP since the Referendum, Jun 2016 - Jun 2025

Latest official data

© Brexit Facts4EU.Org 2025 - click to enlarge
[Source(s) : Office for National Statistics | EU Commission (Eurostat) | accessed Oct 2025]

FACT : GDP has risen by 12.0% in real terms since the Referendum.
FACT : Brexit Britain has outperformed the EU’s Top 3 economies.
FACT : The real GDP growth rate has been more than double that of the EU’s largest economy, Germany.

“The 4% loss of GDP from Brexit is a breathtaking lie.”

The Rt Hon Sir John Redwood commenting exclusively on this report to Brexit Facts4EU, CIBUK, and GB News

“The 4% loss of GDP from Brexit is a breathtaking lie. The origins of the 4% were a bad, averaged forecast of 4% less productivity growth over 15 years or an annual rate of 0.25% less. We cannot know that until we get there and there is no sign of it so far.
“Rachel Reeves has now told the world she has to raise taxes to fill the imaginary black hole caused by Brexit. Instead, she is likely to raise taxes to fill the hole she has made by rash overspending. £20 bn of Bank of England losses, first payments to cover the £30 bn gift to Mauritius, £10 bn on illegal migrants, and soon you get to serious money.
“Facts4EU, CIBUK, and I will cover issues of productivity, debt, and the deficit in the essential follow-ups to this pre-Budget Special for GB News.”
- The Rt Hon Sir John Redwood, 30 Oct 2025

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2. Employment is up by 2.4 million, not down by 500,000-820,000

In 2016, the then government forecast a large drop in employment, as companies would start to make people redundant due to Brexit. Just as with GDP, the opposite happened.

Forecasting mass unemployment was one of the hard-hitting – and totally erroneous – methods used by the Establishment as part of ‘Project Fear’. Nine years later and there has recently been the start of a drop in employment, but this is due to Rachel Reeves’s policies, not due to Brexit. The Brexit effect was positive, as can be seen below.

“People want to feel the effects of our growth in their pockets.”

Richard Tice MP commenting exclusively on this report to Brexit Facts4EU, CIBUK, and GB News

“People want to feel the effects of our growth in their pockets and in their household income. They want to see waste being slashed, more people encouraged back into work, and to feel that their government is behind them as they work to improve their lives. They want to see confident, inspirational leadership with economic policies that make sense to the vast majority, not just a few.
“What the country needs is a government focused on delivering for the people of this country, in all regions. We have it in us. The world is constantly changing and we need to be adaptable and to make the most of the advantages we possess. This starts at home, where people must feel rewarded for their efforts, not penalised with ever-increasing taxes.
“Our independence gives us this opportunity. We can go from strength to strength. We just need Reform.”
- Richard Tice MP, Deputy Leader, Reform UK, 30 Oct 2025

Growth in employment since the Referendum, Jun 2016 - Jun 2025

Latest official data

FACT : Employment rose by an incredible 2.4 million.
FACT : No-one from the Establishment has ever apologised for scaring people so egregiously.
FACT : Unemployment has just started edging up, due to the Chancellor’s policies.

Observations

Both Brexit Facts4EU and CIBUK remain non-partisan. This report is not party political, it is about facts. Sadly, when a Chancellor comes out with statements clearly designed to mislead the public in a grotesque fashion, we feel obligated to respond. Our report today is the definitive, slam-dunk debunk of Ms Reeves's disappointing remarks. We therefore hope that readers will circulate the links as far and as widely as possible.

Why is there no "Frau Brexit", "Madame Brexit", or "Signora Brexit"?

The last time we checked, there had been no Dexit, Frexit, or Itexit, yet the economies of Germany, France and Italy have grown less than the UK’s. Nor have we seen the Finance Ministers of those countries popping up in Washington DC and blaming their economic performance on a vote which took place over nine years ago in the UK.

Ms Reeves continued to give interviews in the days after delivering her statement to the IMF and doubled down on her claims. Her hope is clearly to give some weeks for these fanciful ideas to gain currency amongst the British public, ahead of what threatens to be a damaging budget.

There's no pleasure in shredding a Chancellor's credibility

It must be said that even some pro-Rejoin forecasting organisations have been reluctant to back her, knowing that the facts prove the opposite.

In this report we have shown Ms Reeves's embarrassing statements to be exactly that - embarrassing - using the cold, hard facts which destroy them. There are many metrics we could have chosen, but the growth in real GDP is the one which truly torpedoes Reeves’s small 'Brexit lifeboat' and, we hope, puts it to the bottom of the sea where it should forever rest.

For good measure we included one other indicator with which most people can identify. The threat of mass unemployment prior to the Referendum was simply deplorable in our view, as it affected a great many people who had been planning to vote to Leave the EU. Many times in the past 10 years we have called on David Cameron and George Osborne to apologise for the distress and worry they caused to a great many people, and to admit that they were disastrously wrong.

The fact they have never done so is one of the reasons, perhaps, that Rachel Reeves thought she could get away with resurrecting some of this arrant nonsense over nine years later.

Our definitive, once-and-for-all demolition of her Brexit claims and her credibility, using the official facts, might perhaps make her think again before sitting down to write her budget speech.

COMING UP today, in our second Pre-Budget Special !

Firstly, GB News has covered our report extensively this morning and we recommend reading it. In addition, the report will be on GB News TV today. Ben Philips, the Deputy Chairman of our associated organisation CIBUK.Org, has kindly agreed to represent us and CIBUK. When we know what time he will be on, we will post this information here, with a link.

In our second Pre-Budget Special for GB News, we will continue our quick guide to understanding the Chancellor's budget in three weeks' time, and what's at stake for us all. Like today's report, it will be punchy, written for the non-economist, and will contain our 'at-a-glance' charts which give readers an instant understanding. Don't miss it!

Please, please help us to carry on our vital work in defence of independence, sovereignty, democracy and freedom by donating today. Thank you.

[ Sources: Office for National Statistics | EU Commission (Eurostat) | Office for Budget Responsibility | HM Treasury ] Politicians and journalists can contact us for details, as ever.

Brexit Facts4EU.Org, Thurs 30 Oct 2025

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Reader Comments 11

1. Mr Sceptic , Thursday, October 30, 2025, 09:27:

The Tory Brexiteers prioritised inflating total GDP numbers by increasing the population through the Boriswave. But the Boriswave has lowered the GDP/capita … making the average person in the UK economically worse off despite the superficial headline growth.

2. Have You Wondered , Thursday, October 30, 2025, 10:06:

.
If Reeves is so concerned about Brexit, why is the UK taken it upon themselves to pay to protect EU territory namely Ireland?
There are no publicly documented annual cost or budget allocations to enable the UK and Ireland defence cooperation Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) signed in 2015. Despite Irelands' bumper budget surpluses they have no credible defence force and leave it to the UK.
BRINO?
.

3. KB , Thursday, October 30, 2025, 12:27:

The problem with GDP figures is that there are all kinds of variants of them.
First problem, the other side will say that the referendum vote was followed by an immediate devaluation of the pound relative to the Euro and indeed nearly all other currencies including the US$.
If you redo the plot converting all countries to Euros or US dollars it would not look so favourable would it.
A second issue that the other side raises is borrowing. The UK has borrowed more (as a per cent of GDP) than the Euro area in this period. If you borrow more and dish it out to the population then of course GDP will increase.
That said, I am still of the opinion that if we would only take our noses out of the EU's backside and started to use our Brexit freedoms it could be a very different story.
The real problem facing the UK is energy prices and the net zero policies, not Brexit.

4. Major GWL MC OBE , Thursday, October 30, 2025, 13:44:

2. Have You Wondered, The premise that the UK "protects the Republic of Ireland is misleading, as the Republic of Ireland is a sovereign, neutral country with its own defence forces. The UK does not have a formal protection mandate over Ireland. However, historical, geographical, and shared interests have created an interdependence in security matters, particularly air defence.
There is no direct cost for the UK to protect Irish airspace because the arrangement is based on a secret memorandum of understanding from 1952, not a paid service. Under this agreement, the RAF can intercept hostile aircraft in Irish airspace if the Irish Air Corps is unable to do so. This is part of a long-standing informal agreement rather than a formal, funded arrangement. The UK provides a de facto air defence service to Ireland, as the Irish Air Corps has lacked an independent air intercept capability since 1999.
The cost: The arrangement is not a paid service, but rather a collaborative agreement based on mutual strategic interests, with the costs of RAF operations covered by the UK's defence budget.
The context: This arrangement has been in place since 1952, predating the formalisation of many modern defence cooperation agreements.
Though often perceived as the UK "defending" Ireland, the arrangement is mutually beneficial. The UK requires the ability to intercept potentially hostile or unresponsive aircraft as far away from its own territory as possible, and this often involves operating within the large oceanic area that makes up Ireland's FIR.
I hope this information helps you understand military matters between Ireland and the UK.

5. NH , Thursday, October 30, 2025, 15:28:

1. Sceptic
Your are incorrect on every single fact you have mentioned !
.
According to the ONS's inflation adjusted figures NDP/capita (nett domestic product per head) in Q1 2021 was £7652 the latest figure for Q2 2025 is £8585. NDP is a more realistic figure than GDP because it takes into account depreciation.
.
We have no way of knowing how many EU citizens would have moved to the UK if we had stayed in the EU so it's impossible to compare. We know that after the initial surge in EU immigration, after the "EU Free Movement Directive", UK NDP per capita dropped significantly. As most EU immigration has been minimum wage and the Conservative immigration had much higher minimum salary levels we would probably have been much worse off if we had stayed in the EU.
.
The figures are largely academic as even if the average figure had come down it does not mean that the people that were in the UK before Brexit would be worse off. There has also been a significant increase in the economically inactive since the pandemic but this was clearly nothing to do with Brexit as there has been a constant high level of job vacancies since Brexit.

6. Gazzablack , Thursday, October 30, 2025, 16:43:

1, septic
.
You're mistaking the UK for Germany, for it is Germany that has seen it's GDP per capita fall.
.
.
Spain and Italy have the largest unfunded pensions in Europe, at about 500% of GDP.
They're also the two countries with the lowest fertility rates in Western Europe.
.
Guess who has to bail out EU members when they screw their own economies.
Other EU members, particularly the net contributors.
.
Glad we left yet? As the Spanish and Italian timebomb is ticking along nicely here, and other members will ultimately foot the bill.

7. Mr Sceptic , Thursday, October 30, 2025, 17:43:

The loss of cheap Russian gas (which used to supply 55% of Germany's needs) by Feb 2022 has reduced Germany's GDP by 3%. The UK didn't face the same energy supply crisis as Germany. But Brexit's economic damage to the UK is comparable to Germany's economic losses from losing cheap Russian gas.

8. Mr Sceptic , Thursday, October 30, 2025, 17:46:

The UK's GDP/capita growth collapsed from outperforming the Euro area by 2 percentage points (17.7% vs 15.7%) in 2000-2016 to severely underperforming it by 7.2 percentage points (3.3% vs 10.5%) in the post-Brexit period from 2016-present. (Source of data: Julian Jessop)

9. NH , Thursday, October 30, 2025, 20:01:

8. Sceptic
You're off subject again so I am not going to give a detailed reply.
.
Do you not know that between 2008 and 2016 there was a huge currency crisis in the Eurozone with 6 countries almost going bankrupt. They were saved from bankruptcy by an enormous stimulus program which would obviously have increased their performance after 2016.
.
You, and your mate Julian Jessop, could not possibly have picked a more ridiculous period to compare performance !

10. Sparky , Thursday, October 30, 2025, 20:11:

A drop in £ v $ after the ref combined with significant QE held up the economy.
.
GDP has increased on the back of increased services trade which UK is well placed to benefit from and. Exports of goods are. 17% down post Brexit.
.
The 7.5% increase in employment equated to 180,000 compared to immigration of 3 million.
.
And don’t forget, low investment due to uncertainty, low productivity due to low investment. Sharing Northern Ireland with the EU.

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