Only 3 political parties can claim to be truly national – and the LibDems aren’t on the list
Exclusive analysis by Facts4EU.Org shows Lab, Cons, and Reform are the only truly national parties in the UK
Montage © Facts4EU.Org 2024
A UK government should be a government for the whole of the country, and there are now three contenders
In Part I we looked at the current over-representation in Parliament of the Labour Party, compared to the Conservatives. In Part II we looked at the parties which came third and fourth: Reform UK and the LibDems, respectively. In Part III we reviewed the impact of Nigel Farage, voter apathy, postal voting, and other reasons this election was so different.
Today we conclude our 4-part Christmas 2024 Election Special with a view never before seen, (that we know of), of the political landscape of the United Kingdom as we enter 2025.
A Brexit Facts4EU.Org Mini-Series
The General Election 2024
Part I - Sir Keir has the lowest electoral mandate of any government in history
Part II - How is Reform UK so unrepresented in Parliament?
Part III - Nigel Farage, voter apathy, postal voting, other reasons this election was so different
Part IV (This report) - There are only 3 truly national parties in the UK, and the LibDems don't appear on the list
In this final part we have delved into the detail of the election results, as recorded by the House of Commons authorities from the 650 Returning Officers across the UK. In particular we have analysed the geographical breakdown. We can now reveal what many suspected is true. Not all the parties who stood on a platform to be “the party of Government” for the United Kingdom could claim any legitimacy in this regard.
Brexit Facts4EU.Org Summary
The Big Four ‘National’ Parties
The finale of our 4-part Christmas 2024 Election Special
- What does it mean to be a ‘national’ party?
- Which political parties claim to be ‘national’?
- How we assessed the claims of ‘The Big Four’
- Three parties passed the test, one failed
- The big winner between the LibDems and Reform UK was Reform
What does it mean to be a ‘national’ party?
The United Kingdom has many political parties, but some make no claim to be a potential “party of government” for the UK. This is either because of their regional nature or because they are realistic about their electoral prospects. Many of the smaller parties without geographical boundaries are only able to field candidates in a very small number of seats. And as the saying goes: “You’ve got to be in it to win it.”
Voters may think of some parties as being larger than they are by virtue of the coverage they get on the BBC and Sky News, but this has nothing to do with them being national parties. For example, the Greens took the unusual step of dividing themselves into completely separate and independent parties of the UK’s nations before the election.
Which political parties claim to be ‘national’
Four parties went into the general election in July 2024 claiming to be a potential party of government. These were :-
- Conservatives
- Labour
- LibDems
- Reform UK
There are of course other parties of great significance on a regional basis, such as the SNP, Sinn Fein, the DUP, the SDLP, Alliance, and Plaid Cymru. Certainly if the Greens were to re-evaluate their current split, this would change things for them.
In the end, though, the question for the UK as a whole comes down to this : “Who might form the UK Government at the next general election?”
How did we assess the claims of ‘The Big Four’?
Our criteria were as follows :-
- Fielding candidates in at least 600 out of 650 UK constituencies
- Achieving at least 10% of the vote in at least eight out of the 11 areas (excluding Northern Ireland)
- A reasonable distribution of votes across the whole of Great Britain
The geographical spread of the four main parties
Now we come to the proof that one of the 'Big Four’ political parties has little claim to being truly national.
© Brexit Facts4EU.Org 2025 - click to enlarge
© Brexit Facts4EU.Org 2025 - click to enlarge
© Brexit Facts4EU.Org 2025 - click to enlarge
© Brexit Facts4EU.Org 2025 - click to enlarge
Three parties passed the test, one failed
Both Labour and the Conservatives easily passed the test, as might have been expected. They have both been in existence for more than a century and have had time to build up their organisations in local communities.
Two of the other ‘Big Four’ were surprises. One negatively, one positively.
The LibDems failed on both of the second two criteria. They only managed to get 10% of the vote in four areas of the country. In four out of the remaining seven areas they didn’t even manage to get 7.5% of the vote. It is clear their serious support is limited to just a few regions of the country. This helps to explain why candidates have complained that they are never able to get a shadow cabinet minister to visit their constituency during the campaigning period. Shadow Ministers are spending all their time in the small areas of the UK they consider to be winnable.
As we showed in Part II of this series, this was a successful strategy in terms of winning a disproportionate number of seats for the number of votes cast, but it most certainly does not reflect the view of the general public across the country.
At this general election the LibDems gained a total of 64 seats, losing none. The problem is that 60 of the 64 gains were from the Conservatives. 50 of these came in just three regions: the South East and West, and the Eastern region. This has had the effect of bringing the LibDems’ regional nature very sharply into focus.
In the North East and the East Midlands, the LibDems did not gain a single seat. And in Wales, Yorks & Humber, West Midlands and the North West their gains ranged from 1 to 3 seats.
Map credit: House of Commons Library - click to enlarge
The big surprise was Reform UK
The 2024 general election was the first true test of Reform UK’s popularity across the country. It must be said it passed with flying colours. It exceeded our benchmark of achieving a minimum of 10% vote share, in nine out of the eleven areas. It will be no surprise to readers that it failed in London and Scotland.
The challenge for Reform is now to build its local infrastructure right across the country.
At the weekend their Chairman, Zia Yusuf, announced that they now have 400 offices set up. To extend this still further will take more time and money, but to be represented in two thirds of the constituencies at local level is already impressive.
Photo right : Zia Yusuf, Chairman, Reform UK
Observations
Any profiling of the electorate involves far more than just geography, naturally, but we suggest that any party with aspirations to be a national party of government must enjoy reasonable support across the country. It is clear from our analysis that the LibDems do not qualify in this regard. Despite being 'the new kids on the block', Reform have succeeded where the LibDems have failed - and yet the LibDems have had a century to put this right.
When it comes to voter impressions, Reform set out not to be a party of Westminster. It is our sense that the public mood welcomes this. Part of the shift that has been taking place has been caused by many voters feeling politicians play to the metropolitan 'elite' in London and that they 'don't get' their issues. Reform has certainly made its presence felt nationally.
With both Labour and the Conservatives, each party can claim with full confidence that they enjoy support right across the country. There have always been more Conservatives elected in the South of England than the North, but the last few elections seem to suggest that party loyalty in some regions is a feature of the past. Hence all the talk about 'the Red Wall' seats.
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[ Sources: House of Commons election data ] Politicians and journalists can contact us for details, as ever.
Brexit Facts4EU.Org, Mon 06 Jan 2025
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