The bizarre 2024 election, Part III – Some interesting changes in our political lives

Nigel Farage, voter apathy, postal voting, other reasons this election was so different

Montage © Facts4EU.Org 2024

Penultimate part of Facts4EU's Christmas review of one of the most unusual election results in British history

In Part I we looked at the current over-representation in Parliament of the Labour Party, compared to the Conservatives. In Part II we looked at the parties which came third and fourth: Reform UK and the LibDems, respectively. In today's report on the 2024 general election we review some interesting developments across our political system and landscape.

Today we consider three issues. Two of these issues are generic but troubling. The first item which we look at below is the culmination of half-a-life-time dedicated by one man to achieving this partial objective - and its potential implications.

A Brexit Facts4EU.Org Mini-Series
The General Election 2024

Part I - Sir Keir has the lowest electoral mandate of any government in history
Part II - How is Reform UK so unrepresented in Parliament?
Part III (This report) - Nigel Farage, voter apathy, postal voting, other reasons this election was so different
Part IV - There are only 3 truly national parties in the UK, and the LibDems don't appear on the list

1. Nigel Farage romps home in Clacton-on-Sea

Brexit Facts4EU.Org Summary

Nigel Farage in Clacton

Clacton had one of the highest Conservative majorities in the country
In 2019 the Conservative Party’s Giles Watling gained 31,438 votes
This was an apparently insurmountable 72.3% of the vote
However, in 2024 Reform UK’s Nigel Farage entered the ring
On Thursday 04 July he demolished the Conservatives in Clacton, winning 46.2% of the vote
His majority is 8,405 votes
The Conservative candidate slumped to just 27.9%
To turn a 56.8% Conservative majority into a Reform majority of 18.3% is extraordinary
And this was done in just four weeks

[Source: Local authorities and PA.]

“This is just the first step, I set out with a goal to win millions of votes, to get a bridgehead in Parliament and that’s what we’ve done so I’m very pleased.”
"I’ve got some things to do, I’ve got to professionalise it, I’ve got to democratise it, I’ve got to get rid of a few idiots that found it too easy to get on board. They will all go, they will all go, this will be a non-racist, non-sectarian party. Absolutely and I give my word on that.”

Why didn't Reform UK perform even better in terms of seats won?

As everyone knows, under the ‘first-past-the-post’ (FPTP) system in the UK there are no prizes for coming second. Seats are won only for coming first in the ballot.

In the election on 04 July 2024, Reform came first five times and second 98 times. Contrary to most people’s perceptions, they ran second to the following number of winning candidates from Labour, the Conservatives, and the LibDems, respectively.

Brexit Facts4EU.Org Summary

Winning parties in constituencies in which Reform came second

Labour : 89 constituencies
Conservatives : 9 constituencies
LibDems : 0

[Data source : Facts4EU analysis based on the reports to Parliament by the Returning Officer for each constituency.]

The reasons Reform UK did not win more seats isn't only down to FPTP

We should say at this point that Reform UK were always going to struggle from the moment an early, snap election was called by Rishi Sunak. Like everyone else, they had been preparing for a November election when they would have had more good candidates selected and more in the way of local party workers on the ground. Their fund-raising was also still at an early stage when the election was called.

Finally, should the other parties be scared of Reform UK’s success?

Below is our chart showing the fast-growing popularity of Reform UK. We start at the 2019 general election, when Reform UK was still called The Brexit Party. In just over five years it has grown over four times.

A good indication of this is Reform UK’s live membership tracker on their website, as we mentioned in Part II on Friday. Today we note that their membership has soared over the last few days to 152,000 at the time of writing (3am, Mon morning). They have now exceeded the membership of the Conservative Party by more than 20,000.

Brexit Facts4EU.Org Summary

The rise and rise of Reform UK

[Sources : House of Commons Library | Various polling organisations running polls this month. ]

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2. Lowest turnout as voters simply turned off

The UK has had 26 general elections in the last 100 years, from 1924 to 2024. Turnout has declined over the years, with an accelerated decline since 1992 when John Major took over from the late Lady Thatcher.

Brexit Facts4EU.Org Summary

Results of the 2024 UK general election

Comparison with electoral turnout since 1924 (100 years ago)

Voter turnout 2024 : 59.7%
This is the second-lowest turnout in the last 100 years

[Source : House of Commons Library.]

3. Postal votes have soared nearly 10 times since Tony Blair’s changes

The number of ballot papers received by post has increased dramatically since 2001, thanks to Tony Blair’s relaxation of the rules. Now almost anyone can register to vote by post and it is thought that over 10 million ballot papers were sent out in the 2024 election. Below we show the percentage of postal votes from 1945 (earliest data available) to 2019 (latest data available).

Brexit Facts4EU.Org Summary

Proportion of postal votes has rocketed

[Source : House of Commons Library.]

The finale of this 4-part Christmas 2024 Election Special

The final part in this series will show you something we do not believe has been shown before. This will round off our analysis of what was one of the most unusual election results in British history, breaking all kinds of record. And it's coming up this week!

Coming very soon…. Facts4EU.Org’s ‘Government Trackers’

Given all that we have published across these reports about the General Election on 04 July 2024, the Facts4EU.Org think-tank feel it is now time to produce trackers to monitor some of the key measures and policies of the current government. We will focus firstly on the economy, with ‘at-a-glance’ charts showing the country’s economic health since it was elected, on the key facts which affect us all.

We will then move on and add an ‘Immigration Tracker’. Not to be missed!

Observations

Those of us who have been observing the British political scene for decades, and who have some historical knowledge going back much further, will always hesitate before declaring that any kind of tectonic shift may be taking place. For example, the Conservative Party is the oldest in the World and has previously seen off threats to its existence. The Labour Party have only been around for just over 100 years but that is still a great deal longer than the Reform UK Party, and during that time at one point in particular their continued existence was in doubt. Nevertheless both Labour and Conservative parties are still standing.

That said, we are seeing some quite extraordinary events taking place, the latest of which is Reform UK's membership numbers which can only be described as rocketing. A great deal of this success is of course down to one Nigel Farage.

Facts4EU’s Chairman, caught having an off-the-record chat with Nigel, Manchester, Nov 2023

When young Nigel was lining up for servings of charisma at Dulwich College it seems he was always given a double portion. Put that together with his friendship with the President-Elect of the United States and of half his cabinet - including Elon Musk - and it could be said that the ingredients for continued success are all there.

It goes deeper than this, naturally. While Reform UK still has a great deal of work to do on fleshing out its policies in detail and democratising the party, for years Nigel Farage has been hammering home his messages which resonate strongly with ordinary voters. Where most politicians are accused of being 'out of touch' with the voters, this is about the last thing one would say of Mr Farage.

As all our readers know, we deal in facts, not forecasts, but it has to be said that all the facts are currently in favour of a major upset to the political status quo in the United Kingdom.

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[ Sources: House of Commons election data ] Politicians and journalists can contact us for details, as ever.

Brexit Facts4EU.Org, Mon 30 Dec 2024

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Reader Comments 11

1. terence patrick hewett , Monday, December 30, 2024, 07:11:

Time is on Reform UK's side: whatever damage the Labour Party does, will be undone by Reform UK. Nothing is forever in politics, unless you bring the voters with you. The fundamental re-alignment of UK politics is accelerating. Both the legacy political parties are dead in both name and in their present form, if they want to see power again. Of course the last governments were insane enough to try and replace the demos.....

2. Sparky , Monday, December 30, 2024, 08:24:

Why did people vote Reform in the last election. See WIKI and YouGov. 34% immigration 9% to get rid of the Conservatives.
Who voted Reform. Majority of Reform voters are: over 50, C2DE demographic (skilled, semi skilled, unemployed, retired), earn less than £30.000 pa, live in social housing, did not have a higher education, are white and voted leave.
Why did Reform win in Clacton. The area aligns well with the demographics above, Clacton is classed as highly deprived in terms of employment, income and education.
Look forward to seeing the trackers on the economy and migration but looks like these will on the current electoral term. Why not start at key dates for Brexit, 2016 or 2021.

3. Ashley Great Britain , Monday, December 30, 2024, 09:31:

Reform uk is certainly on the rise. Just in the last hour and a half their membership has risen by 88 new members, that's nearly 1 per minute! An astonishing level of new support. People were sick to the back teeth with the conservatives and now they are seeing the light that Labour are even worse.
-
2 sparky.
Yes you really want to believe that they are all white, old, low paid or out of work racists.
You just keep sitting there in your bunker pal.

4. Sparky , Monday, December 30, 2024, 10:00:

3 AGB. That's the research, that is who Reform attract. Ive mentioned before the YouGov tracker of scale of issues by public opinion, immigration spiked in 2016 because of the Leave campaign. The worse the economy and immigration get the more people will vote for Reform and the worse the economy and immigration will get. Reform are just agitators taking advantage of any issues they can misrepresent to gain coverage and support. Reform does not come up with any solutions and as seen on QT a few weeks ago, when challenged there is no substance.

5. NH , Monday, December 30, 2024, 11:27:

2. Sp.
You are returning to your same old strategy of constantly repeating the same old information without any reliable proof that it is correct.
.
If you want polls here's 2 more:
J L Partners poll results showed that for 16 - 17 year olds Reform was in second place with 23% support and for 16 -17 year old men it was in joint first place with Labour.
IPOS poll results showed that for 23 - 34 year olds Reform was the second most popular party.
.
The one thing we can be sure about is the outcome for 2025 will be very uncertain as the world has changed. People will get to live with the Labour Party's policies and make up their own mind. They will also get to see how the EU manages it's trade wars, lack of competitiveness, defence problems, debt problems, investment problems, funding problems, corruption problems, immigration problems, currency problems, political uncertainties and decision making problems.

6. Sparky , Monday, December 30, 2024, 12:18:

5 NH. Latest poll by JL shows Labour with 256 seats Cons 206, Reform 71, Lib Dem 66. But we’re 4 years away from any GE. The Cons need to keep a low profile after having reputation destroyed by Brexit so Reform are being flattered by a new Labour Govt trying to get all the unpopular changes in early (but making a mess of it) and Cons with tails between their legs.

7. NH , Monday, December 30, 2024, 12:47:

6. Sparky, "Labour Govt trying to get all the unpopular changes in early"
.
You don't seem to understand the Labour Party's budget.
Their policies will have an effect on the future economy they will not simply disappear as a one-off cost. The increased costs of employing people and increased employee protections will effect employment, inflation and investment. The increased public sector salaries will increase inflation and maintain high interest rates, Caving-in to unions will lead to more pay demands and strikes. Their green policies are increasing the cost of electricity and this will effect many UK businesses and consumer spending.
.
Both the Conservative Party and Labour Parties were elected based on fake manifestoes. The Reform Party may be too new to have detailed policies but I don't think there is any doubt that they intend to do what they say they will. As I have said the world is now a very different place and I have no idea how everything will be in 4 years time but I do believe the electorate will have far more information to make an informed decision.

8. Gazzablack , Monday, December 30, 2024, 15:47:

6, sparkless
.
Labour, who were so full of themselves leading up to and immediately after the election ( "14 years of Tory chaos" and "The grown ups are now in the room") have now resorted to asking quangos for ideas on how to grow the economy.
.
Don't bother asking them Keir, they have no idea.
.
But if you just follow this advice then the economy can start growing again!
.
RESIGN, AND LET THOSE WHO KNOW WHAT THEY'RE DOING DO THE JOB.

9. LuxuryBalloon , Monday, December 30, 2024, 17:41:

I don’t mind Farage as PM … as long as Elon Musk is pulling the strings behind the scene.

10. Gazzablack , Monday, December 30, 2024, 18:29:

9, LB
.
And this is why you're considered to be a 'novelty condom'

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