Do Rejoiners understand the economic madness they want to rejoin?

UK’s GDP is 9 TIMES that of all nine EU ‘accession’ countries COMBINED

Montage © Facts4EU.Org 2023

We provide proof that the Commission is driven by ideological zealotry, not by reality

As we reported yesterday in Part I, the EU Commission has just issued its ‘report cards’ on the progress which the nine accession countries are making towards becoming EU members.

Today in Part II we present the conclusive evidence that if the EU27 becomes ‘the EU36’ – as it fully intends to do – then it will become an economic basket case. We invite all Rejoiners to review the official facts below. These are incontrovertible and demonstrate that the EU is all about ideological zealotry, regardless of any practical economic considerations.

Brexit Facts4EU summarises each country’s chances, plus what the EU would look like

Part One – How the EU27 intends to become the EU36
Part Two - Just how little these countries will add to the EU’s GDP (This report)

The economies of the nine EU accession countries, compared with what the EU lost – the UK

The figures below show the GDP in 2022 for the United Kingdom versus the GDP of the EU’s nine proposed accession countries. Seven out of the nine are formally ‘EU Candidate Countries’ as we reported yesterday. The other two are in the process of acquiring the same status.

Brexit Facts4EU.Org Summary

UK GDP versus the GDP of the EU's nine accession countries

United Kingdom : $3,070.7 bn
EU accession countries : $335.5 bn

[Source : World Bank GDP figures for 2022, in USD billions.]

Here is what EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said on Wednesday

“Enlargement is a vital policy for the European Union. Completing our Union is the call of history, the natural horizon of our Union. Completing our Union, also has a strong economic and geopolitical logic.”
- Ursula von der Leyen statement, Wed 08 Nov 2023

The EU Commission President made this statement on the announcement of the 2023 ‘report cards’ for the nine countries vying to become EU members, which the Commission fully supports.

Here’s what happens when all nine have joined

Firstly, as we made clear yesterday, none of the nine accession countries are joining the EU tomorrow. Nevertheless the illustration below is based on the EU Commission’s declared intentions on Wednesday.

This is an illustration based on the latest figures for GDP and populations.

Brexit Facts4EU.Org Summary

The effect on GDP per capita

If and when these nine countries join, the EU’s population would rise by 64,283,016 (14.3%) to 512,670,888.

Unfortunately the EU’s GDP would only rise by $335.5bn (2.0%). This would have the following effect on GDP per capita in the EU.

EU27’s GDP per capita : $37,114
EU36’s GDP per capita : $33,115 (-10.8%)

[Sources : World Bank | EU Commission | UN population stats.]

For information, the average GDP per capita in the accession countries is just $5,220.

Ben Habib, businessman, former MEP, now Deputy Leader of Reform Party UK
commented on our two reports

"What Brexit Facts4EU.Org and CIBUK have published in these two reports on what the EU is set to become is clear and comprehensive. It evidences the EU to be an expansive political project, not an economic one and it is, as ever, always prepared to bend or break the rules when it suits.
"Finally, this sort of empire-building, driven by political expansionism rather than economic good sense will, in the end, accelerate the collapse of the EU."
- Ben Habib, Deputy Leader of Reform Party UK, 11 Nov 2023

What happens to the Euro?

It is now a condition of joining that countries must adopt the Euro as their currency. The problem is that they must meet the economic criteria for doing this. This is despite the fact – as have reported previously – that many of the existing members would not currently pass the test.

When Greece joined the EU the figures were ‘fudged’, and we all know what subsequently happened to Greece’s economy after this. The danger with the new accession countries is that they might suffer the same fate.

Overall, however, the real danger is to the value of the Euro itself. With the Eurozone falling into recession it is in poor shape to cope with yet more debt burdens.

Finally, the Common Agricultural Policy

A massive consumer of the EU budget, the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) costs billions. The problem here is that Ukraine’s economy is massively dependent on agriculture, as the recent troubles in getting grain and sunflower oil to the EU and elsewhere since the war has shown.

If Ukraine joins the EU – as the EU Commission wants – then it will consume a significant proportion of the CAP. This in turn will leave a lot less for other countries with a significant agricultural element to their economies, such as France, Italy, and Spain.

Observations

We invite readers to look again at the quote from Ursula von der Leyen. These eurocrats are quasi-religious zealots. Any sane review of the nine candidate countries shows that they have precious little in common with the more developed member countries of the EU27 – either economically or socially.

In our report above we have given just some indications of the serious economic challenges for the EU if it pursues its current policy of enlargement.

None of this seems to matter to the EU Commission, however, as it is driven by political ideology. It might matter more to the EU’s current 448 million citizens when they find out what the effect of absorbing these nine accession countries will be.

One thing should be clear to all British people. Rejoining the EU would involve even greater transfers of the UK's wealth to countries with whom we have little in common. We wish them well, but why should the British taxpayer fund infrastructure improvement projects in these countries when all the billions donated are branded "Funded by the EU"?

As we commented in Part I yesterday: "The United Kingdom is well out of this. Another Brexit benefit."

We must get reports like this out there

Reports like the one above take far longer to research, write and produce than many people realise. If they were easy, readers would see other organisations also producing these daily. However, there’s little point in the Facts4EU.Org team working long hours, seven days-a-week, if we lack the resources to promote them effectively – to the public, to MPs, and to the media. This is where you come in, dear reader.

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[ Sources: World Bank | EU Commission | UN population stats ] Politicians and journalists can contact us for details, as ever.

Brexit Facts4EU.Org, Sat 11 Nov 2023

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Reader Comments 7

1. LuxuryBalloon , Saturday, November 11, 2023, 09:33:

Why is Facts4EU writing stories about a hypothetical rejoining? We will not rejoin. Brexit is a huge success and I don’t know anyone who is regretting having voted for Brexit.

2. terence patrick hewett , Saturday, November 11, 2023, 11:19:

The Mafia has its code of honour, but like its EU soulmate - it's just crooks. The EU functions because the wheels are greased with what in the Anglosphere, are called graft and criminality.

3. Gazzablack , Saturday, November 11, 2023, 17:27:

1, Luxury Balloon
.
Because it doesn't hurt to remind people.
.
Time is a great healer
It's also an amnesiac.
As time passes there will be those who will forget why we left.
.
Having said tha,t the latest Omnisis polling is out regarding voting intention and yet again it confirms the obligation to adopt the Euro, something now mandatory for joining the EU, would make 45% of rejoin voters change their vote.
Which means that yet again, staying out wins.

4. jon iivesey , Saturday, November 11, 2023, 18:31:

"[Enlargement]..... also has a strong economic and geopolitical logic.” This is what it is to be a European. And I don't mean an EU fan, although people like Sparky re just like this, but to be a European pure and simple. I spent years working in Europe and the most obvious difference I noticed between us and the Europeans is that pragmatism seems to be a completely foreign concept to them. Political debates in the UK always involve some element of outcomes. We let the twitter idiots debate the "logic" of policy because we know that all any of them are doing is cherry-picking the part of the argument they happen to like and which serves their purpose. The rest of us want to know what the outcome is going to be, what was the outcome the last time we tried something similar, and what was the outcome the last time someone else tried it. The clever dicks can always tell you how superior PR is for voting, but most of us smile and note how many countries have adopted PR and got political muddle and paralysis as a result. The proof of the pudding.
And here is UvL telling us that enlargement has logic. Is there any evidence? It does not matter because she does not care about evidence. Enlargement has led to pervasive corruption, accounts that can't be audited, endless fraud scandals and the slowest growth on the planet, but don't worry, because some 18th or 19th century French philosopher claims it has "logic". And that is good enough. European policies always have logic and Europe is always recovering from the last policy that had logic.

5. John Hardman , Saturday, November 11, 2023, 21:16:

Hot Air Balloon Head
Must be paid by the non elected EU empire builders
How can anyone be so naive
Must have fell for all the EU brain washing

6. LuxuryBalloon , Sunday, November 12, 2023, 08:24:

5 ‘Must have fell’?

7. Robert Mcdonald , Sunday, November 12, 2023, 10:03:

Jon .. I remember when business was in love with big is better until it found out that big is bureaucratic and sclerotic.
Small is now recognised as beautiful providing innovation and flexibility and dynamism. Big businesses are now generally run in small independent wings.
The eurocracy is BIG.

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