If the UK re-joined the EU in the next 10 years, what would it be re-joining?

“Must do better” - EU Commission’s report card on the 9 countries lining up to join

Montage © Facts4EU.Org 2023

On Wednesday the Commission showed how it plans to become the EU36

On Wednesday (08 November 2023) the EU Commission published its annual reviews of each of the 10 countries who want to join the EU. One is irrelevant (Turkey) as talks have been stalled for the last five years. The other nine are very keen, however, and none of them will be net contributors to the EU budget.

Brexit Facts4EU summarises each country’s chances, plus what the EU would look like

Part One – How the EU27 intends to become the EU36 (This report)
Part Two - Just how little these countries will add to the EU’s GDP

Today Brexit Facts4EU.Org presents a picture of what the newly enlarged EU will ultimately look like. If the Rejoiners had their way and if the UK applied to become a member again, then it is important to know what we would be rejoining.

Firstly, who are “the Candidates”?

We start by listing the countries lining up to join the EU.

Brexit Facts4EU.Org Summary

The list of nine realistic 'Candidates' to enter what would be 'the EU36'

Seven official ‘realistic’ Candidates :

Albania
Bosnia and Herzegovina
Moldova
Montenegro
North Macedonia
Serbia
Ukraine

One official Candidate going nowhere :

Turkey

Two Potential Candidates:

Georgia
Kosovo

[Source: Latest EU official data, released Wed 08 Nov 2023.]

Secondly, what are their chances of becoming members of the EU?

Below we have only summarised some of the major issues which currently prevent any of these countries becoming members of the EU. There are more, but readers might detect some common themes. The EU Commission talk of each of these countries in positive terms, emphasising the progress they are each making. The reality is that they all have some way to go.

Brexit Facts4EU.Org Summary

Currently the 'Candidates' are not who you might wish to have as neighbours

'The Magnificent Seven'

Albania
Problem Areas: Corruption, organized crime, freedom of expression, minority issues, rule of law.

Bosnia and Herzegovina
Problem Areas: Corruption, judicial system, economic reforms, freedom of expression.

Moldova
Problem Areas: Corruption, power of oligarchs, judicial reform.

Montenegro
Problem Areas: Corruption, organized crime, justice reform.

North Macedonia
Problem Areas: Corruption, organized crime, public administration.

Serbia
Problem Areas: Way too close to Russia and China, attacks on Kosovo.

Ukraine
Problem Areas: Corruption, power of oligarchs, organised crime, fair treatment of minorities... Oh, and there’s a war going on.

Two Potential Candidates:

Georgia
Problem Areas: Corruption, power of oligarchs, human rights, Russian media interference, electoral problems, over-powerful security services, judicial reform.

Kosovo
Problem Areas: Corruption, judicial reform, government reform, state services, relationship with Serbia.

In Part II we will demonstrate just how little these countries will add to the EU’s overall GDP.

Observations

The EU's unelected decision-makers

It is worth pointing out that the unelected EU Commission acts as prosecutor and judge when it comes to deciding which countries can become “Candidate Countries” of the European Union.

The ultimate arbiter is then the EU Council who effectively act as jury. They are the ones who decide on the Commission’s recommendations and they must act in unanimity in order for a new country to be allowed to join.

It is the 27 Leaders (and their coalition governments) in the EU Council who are the real hurdle for many of the applicants. The disputes over policies towards Russia and China represent just one area that is causing real conflict politically - even amongst the existing EU27 - but this is the tip of the iceberg. Some EU members also object vehemently to other policies of the Candidate countries. For example the Bulgarians have recently sent troops in considerable numbers to their border with Serbia. And the Candidate countries also have many serious disputes between themselves.

Re-join what, exactly?

When any of the applicants do end up as EU Members, it begs the question of just what sort of political mess will reign in Europe for decades. On top of this, there is the thorny question of freedom of movement. One can only imagine how many millions from these poor countries will exert their new rights to come and live in the UK.

Then there is the question of just how much more per annum the UK would have to contribute to the EU budget each year, if the UK were to rejoin. The EU will be paying the Candidate countries many billions every year for years, to pay for the upgrading of their infrastructures. This is a subject we will cover in Part II.

There should be no mistake in readers' minds. The EU is determined to absorb the nine countries we have listed into their sclerotic political bloc. This will not happen overnight but the process is well underway.

The United Kingdom is well out of this. Another Brexit benefit.

We must get reports like this out there

Reports like the one above take far longer to research, write and produce than many people realise. If they were easy, readers would see other organisations also producing these daily. However, there’s little point in the Facts4EU.Org team working long hours, seven days-a-week, if we lack the resources to promote them effectively – to the public, to MPs, and to the media. This is where you come in, dear reader.

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[ Sources: EU Commission ] Politicians and journalists can contact us for details, as ever.

Brexit Facts4EU.Org, Fri 10 Nov 2023

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Reader Comments 11

1. Sparky , Friday, November 10, 2023, 06:59:

You could add Northern Ireland to that list.

2. Gazzablack , Friday, November 10, 2023, 08:44:

1 Sparky
.
Perhaps they should add Gaza.
.
Get Hamas in the Shenghen zone, eh Sparkless?

3. Northern Muppet , Friday, November 10, 2023, 09:42:

Sparky! Ha!!
.
Ask the people of NI what they want to do! Even the catholics don't want to leave the UK!!

4. terence patrick hewett , Friday, November 10, 2023, 10:15:

The EU does not compare well with the CPTPP, of which the UK is a member. The EU is hoovering up more economic basket cases, to go with its collection of economic basket cases. The CPTPP, comprises of a large chunk of the economically successful Anglosphere, in addition to the massively expanding economies of Asia. Not suprisingly, the EU's share of world trade is shrinking year on year, to add to their political woes. I suspect that one day, the expanding economies of the increasingly powerful Visegrad bloc, will lose patience, and take Brussels out with the trash.

5. NH , Friday, November 10, 2023, 11:56:

A recently leaked EU report put the cost of this expansion, under current rules, at 256.8 Billion Euros over the next financing period. This is in addition to 400 Billion Euros for the cost of restructuring Ukraine and the additional 100 Billion of Euros the EU has recently requested. The only way they can pay for this is higher charges and reduced hand outs. The CAP (Common Agricultural Policy) will need big changes which will not please French Farmers. Many countries expecting their handouts will be asked to pay up.
.
The problem is many countries economies are now being propped up by handouts from NextGenEU. When this ends and they are asked to pay up it's going to have a devastating effect on their economies. In addition to this when these new countries join the Eurozone it will lead to huge additional hidden costs to support the Euro.
.
I imagine this is going to result in a very long drawn out fight to decide who will pay for this. While this is ongoing the EU will not be focussing on productive policies for creating growth. The UK exited at just the right time to avoid this power-hungry madness !

6. Paul j , Friday, November 10, 2023, 12:02:

This is all Sparky has now.
Pathetic threats of Irish unification.
How's Scottish independence going Sparky?

7. John Hardman , Friday, November 10, 2023, 14:10:

Sparky
Paid by the non elected empire builders
How gullible can one be

8. jon iivesey , Friday, November 10, 2023, 17:36:

Sometimes you can tell a lot about people by listening to what they think the good news is. Mario Draghi says it is almost certain that the EU is going to enter a recession this year, but he says they are well-positioned because unemployment has "never been lower". As it happens, EU unemployment has come down from 12% and is now at 6.5%. Can you imagine how we would be in the UK if our unemployment had never been lower than 6.5%?
Instead, UK unemployment is 4.25% and has been below 5% going back a decade. Not only that, but we take in half a million immigrants a year and over the past couple of decades we have created about half a million new jobs a year. One a half million new jobs since the Brexit referendum in 2016, even after Covid disruption.
Some people like to compare the UK with France. France's GDP has now slipped pretty decisively behind the UK, by about ten percent after being neck and neck for decades, they have 7% unemployment, about one and a half times the UK level, and they have 30 million employed persons, two million less than the UK on the same population. And if that does not sound too bad, that is before the the EU recession that Draghi says is coming.
Oh, and what does Draghi says is the solution? Well, more integration, since that has been so successful in the past. Seriously, they have never had less than 6.5% unemployment and the solution is more integration. Not a liberalised job market or more incentives to create new jobs, just more integration. I think we are well out of that mess.

9. jon iivesey , Friday, November 10, 2023, 17:39:

1. Sparky , "You could add Northern Ireland to that list." No, you couldn't because under the GFA decisions about NI rest with the voters of NI. The days when the future of NI could be decided over the heads of its people by the EU or Guardian readers, is over.

10. jon iivesey , Friday, November 10, 2023, 19:09:

Probably everyone has spotted this, but the thing the likely candidates have in common is that they are all from the wreck of the Turkish Empire in Europe that existed for centuries, became the "Sick man of Europe", and then broke up during the Balkan Wars of the early 20th Century.
That means that they all have long cultural traditions of resistance to Turkish rule which means law breaking, local mafia activity, resistance to paying taxes, concealment of income, defiance of authority and rejection of rule of law.
If the EU wants to take on this mess, maybe they should first take a look at Greece. Greece was the first to break away from the Turkish Empire, back in the 19th Century, but it still has strong cultural elements of ungovernability, corruption, resistance to taxpaying and of course Greece was the focus of the Euro crisis back in 2005 when the euro came very close to breaking up, and even the UK had to lend the EU money to try to rescue things.
What we are really seeing here is the EU persisting with its basic delusion that you can buy "convergence" with fiscal transfers, and we know you can't, because Greece and Ireland simply emerged from the euro crisis with huge new debts, Greece and Portugal show little signs of convergence with the rest of the EU, Italy has lost 30% of GDP in comparison withe the UK, France keeps slipping further and further behind Germany,and Germany's investments in the rest of the EU are not profitable for Germany, which is now entering recession.
Eventually the EU will figure out that it could do better allowing each member to set its own policies, and going back to being a free trade are and nothing else, but it will take a few more crises before that happens. And at each crisis we will trade a bit less with the EU and a bit more with the growing economies outside the EU.

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