Total deaths to this point in 2015 were higher than ONS’s latest 2020 figures

Deaths will rise faster, but 2020 numbers are still lower than five years ago

Exclusive analysis of official figures by the Brexit Facts4EU.Org team

In just two weeks in January five years ago, 31,103 people died in England and Wales. That’s 2,222 per day. (These figures exclude Scotland and Northern Ireland.)

All the shops, factories, and offices stayed open. Football matches and other sporting fixtures took place as normal. People could leave their homes without fear of prosecution, and without fear of being informed on by their neighbours.

Fast forward to 2020, just five years later. In the latest two weeks for which the ONS has published figures, 27,528 people died. That’s less than the number who died in the two-week period in 2015 referred to above.

What about total numbers of deaths this year?

Below is a chart showing the number of people who have died this year so far, compared to the number who died in the same period in 2015. We have also included the average of the last five years, to give some balance. In each case the data covers the period up to the end of week 14. (That’s 03 April in 2020.) This is the last period for which the ONS has complete figures.

Brexit Facts4EU.Org Summary

Total deaths in 2015 to this point
are in fact higher than in this year.

1.9% higher than they are this year, to be exact.

If we adjust for the effects of immigration since 2015,
the numbers are over 4.5% higher in 2015 than now.

To be clear: this chart shows ALL deaths from ALL causes, in hospitals, care homes, at home, or in public places, in England and Wales.

Will deaths soon exceed those of previous years?

Yes, undoubtedly. We expect the ONS’s next weekly figures to show a very marked increase. We have absolutely no doubt whatsoever that the jump in deaths for the week ending 10 April will look alarming.

Our charts above merely show the position in England and Wales, based on the latest full set of data released by the ONS on Tuesday. They are intended to redress the balance a little, when compared to some of the more hysterical reporting from some sections of the media.

The simple fact is that total deaths are still lower than they were in 2015 – five years ago - when the country was not on lockdown and life was normal.

Will people be dying because of “the cure, not the cold”?

Readers are likely to know people who will not even attempt to visit their doctor, or to see a specialist they have already been seeing for a serious condition. We certainly know such people and one is on our team. We also observe that attendances at Accident & Emergency departments are at an all time low.

“The total number of attendances in March 2020 was 1,531,100, a decrease of 29.4% on the same month last year. These are the lowest number of attendances reported since this collection began and are likely to be a result of the COVID-19 response.”
- NHS England, latest report issued 07 Apr 2020

Medical practitioners all say that early diagnosis and treatment of most health conditions is one of the most important factors in the outcome for any patient. It seems highly probable that many extra deaths will now be being caused by the State’s reaction to the Coronavirus.

Observations

Next week we expect the number of deaths this year to overtake those in 2015 up to that date. We expect this trend to continue for some weeks before it starts to subside.

The big questions in all of this are the ones which almost all commentators have been afraid to ask. Certainly we felt on our own when we first started querying the data two months ago. We are pleased to note that some newspapers are finally publishing articles which are starting to ask the difficult questions.

We would like to throw a question at readers

For Coronavirus to have been an international pandemic/disaster closing down normal life,
by how much would you expect to see deaths to be higher than in other ’flu epidemic years?
10%? 50%? 100%? 250%?

We welcome your thoughts in the comments section below.

* * *

The battle for Brexit has so far consumed four years of our lives. Members of our team would like to go back to our businesses and to a ‘normal life’ where we are not working seven days a week.

Boris Johnson put 31 December 2020 into law, as the date when the UK will exit the “Transition Period” of colony status to the EU. We cannot abide one second more. We must conclude this chapter in our lives and move on to the joys of being a truly independent and outward-looking nation once again.

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[ Sources: ONS | NHS ] Politicians and journalists can contact us for details, as ever.

Brexit Facts4EU.Org, Wed 15 Apr 2020

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Reader Comments 20

1. Robert, Grimsby , Wednesday, April 15, 2020, 08:39:

You ask a difficult question at the end of your article. We've had (flu-type) epidemics many times so the big question is how this one's different. The other problem is that we will be told that if we hadn't shut down the country then the deaths would have been much higher.
I dont have the answers but my guess is that the reaction to this virus has been totally overblown. I don't have any evidence for this, it's just my feeling. Well done for raising these questions.

2. Kevin , Wednesday, April 15, 2020, 08:58:

My answer to your question is at least 50% increase in deaths. To justify our lives and economy being wrecked and I'd also like to know the increase in profits for medical companies and funding to NHs and global health organisations this year because of all this.

3. Dennis , Wednesday, April 15, 2020, 09:17:

I suspect the 1000's of emergency field hospital beds will not be fully used, (hopefully).

4. James Bertram , Wednesday, April 15, 2020, 09:53:

'For Coronavirus to have been an international pandemic/disaster closing down normal life,
by how much would you expect to see deaths to be higher than in other ’flu epidemic years?
10%? 50%? 100%? 250%?'
Your article looks at ONS figures for the UK. Your question refers to the 'international' situation.
Here are 'international' death rates for Covid-19 compared to flu up to April 14th:
'COVID-19: Approximately 120,450 deaths reported worldwide; 23,649 deaths in the U.S., as of Apr. 14, 2020.*
Flu: 291,000 to 646,000 deaths worldwide; 12,000 to 61,000 deaths in the U.S. per year.
https://www.hopkinsmedicine...
-
Expectations are entirely dependent as to whether they are those of a pampered wealthy westerner - or whether you belong to the 3 billion world's poor on less than $5 a day, or the 800 million extreme poor who live on less than $2 a day.
https://www.theguardian.com...
The poor do not benefit at all from closing down world economies; many will die from that decision. They know that they are of the lowest priority for world governments; and that they have no voice. They get on with life, regardless.

5. Syd , Wednesday, April 15, 2020, 09:59:

Straight answer - double the normal seasonal average deaths would tell us we had a problem that justified locking down the country.

6. Malcolm , Wednesday, April 15, 2020, 11:11:

I well remember having the Hong Kong flu in late 1968 confirmed by my GP at the time who actually came out to visit me! The other day I thought I’d check the UK mortality stats and the deaths attributed to the HK flu in the UK were 80,000.

7. Patrick F , Wednesday, April 15, 2020, 11:18:

Off topic. I applaud the Government's initiative in introducing the NHS Lottery card to raise funds for our heroes. The card costs £5 and one lucky winner will be announced by Matt Hancock after our Thursday crap for the NHS.
First prize: a 10 minute consultation with a (hard working) GP, in a real doctors' surgery.
Second prize: a face mask.
Third prize: a thirty minute walk in a public park, with a police escort.
I read this in The Daily Hero, so it must be true.

8. Not4EU, London , Wednesday, April 15, 2020, 11:19:

The 'excess' deaths have certainly climbed, to 6,082 registered in week 14. However, only 3,475 of ALL deaths 'mention' covid19 (even suspicion is enough to have it noted on the Certificate of Death). .
This means that there is an 'excess' mortality of 2,607 attributable to...what? With restrictions on transport, there will be fewer traffic incidents & A&E use is well down. Could it be due to 'because of' Chynavirus, with all other medical treatments seemingly abandoned? The 'cure' -Lockdown? Why isn't this being questioned?
There appears to be growing evidence, from doctors, that rather than a pneumonia-type illness it is more like hypoxia (altitude sickness), which would mean that the treatment is wrong & why the combination of hydroxychloroquine, azithromycin & zinc appears to be fairly successful as a treatment.
Meanwhile, it seems that the goalposts have been moved. We have gone from preventing an overwhelming surge that RNHS could not cope with, so 'flattening the curve' to everyone must stay locked up regardless. Most ICUs are running 30% below capacity (normally would be at 90%), plus we now have the Nightingale hospitals. Certainly enough time for RNHS staff to put on dance displays as they're bored, whilst we have an excess of deaths unrelated to their now current single purpose.
Viruses will come & go but the Govt will never forget how easy it was just to lock people up & promote fear & snitching. Anyone might think that there is another agenda at play.
I'm certain that this 'emergency' would be shortened if ALL public employees (that incidently pay no tax) except the active military are to receive 80% of their pay, to a maximum of £2,500 per month, until this crisis is resolved.

9. Sydney Ashurst , Wednesday, April 15, 2020, 12:44:

The death toll is climbing because Covid 19 has got into Care Homes and is picking off the elderly as they are the most vunerable. Government procurement and distribution of PPE to them did not have priority, so are they now receiving supplies. The stay at home strategy has delayed the spread of the virus, but is the virus going to disappear with warmer weather, doubtful as it appears to be different from influenza.
With talk of excess ICU's in Nightingale Hospitals what is Government policy on treating the elderly.
The good news - The Spectator has learned that the UK will not request an extension to the Brexit transition period. David Frost, the Prime Minister’s chief Brexit negotiator, has held discussions with the First Secretary of State Dominic Raab and other senior ministers in the past few days. The conclusion of these discussions has been that the UK will not request an extension to the transition period It is understand that no one in these discussions backed asking for an extension.
The thinking is that a delay would not solve the fundamental policy problems and that a deal is either possible or not. Another factor, is that the Government worries about the cost of any extension. There is concern that extending could drag the UK into the arguments about who pays for the various EU schemes designed to protect the European economy and preserve the eurozone.

10. James Bertram , Wednesday, April 15, 2020, 12:49:

Yes, Sydney - for liabilities see this link:
https://facts4eu.org/news/2...

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