2026 – Part II of "The year you will be lied to on an epic scale about Brexit"

The refreshing truth about Brexit with evidence from the official sources, not "forecasts"
With Sir John Redwood and Richard Tice MP

Montage © Facts4EU.Org 2025

The second part of the key facts to take into this year

This is the second report about the new confidence amongst Rejoiners, which demolishes the last of the completely false claims made during the 10-minute rule motion proposed by the LibDems shortly before Parliament wrapped up for Christmas. It also covers some other claims made in the run-up to Christmas by a variety of politicians, as well as some old claims which readers will recall from Project Fear which have all been proved fake.

The first report for GB News on the claims regarding the economy, caused considerable upset amongst the Rejoiner community as they tried without success to argue against the facts presented. This second and final part will be no different, although the topics are different.

A 2-parter with good news about Brexit

Part I - The definitive demolition of the claim Brexit has damaged economic growth
Part II (This report) - Definitive demolitions of the other negative claims about investment, exports, & jobs
With Sir John Redwood and Richard Tice MP

We deal with business investment, trade, and employment and once again present 'at-a-glance' charts which demonstrate that these have all performed well in Brexit Britain.

This report is again based purely on official facts, compared to the academic 'forecasts' which Rejoiners such as Sir Keir Starmer and all Rejoiner parties and their MPs are forced to rely on, because the facts will not back up their wholly erroneous claims.

Report Summary
The false claims about Brexit versus the reality (official figures in real terms, excl. inflation)

1. "Choked business investment"
2. "Strangled trade"
3. "Leaving the country"

No, business investment is up 19.1% since the UK left
No, exports are up 18.9%
No, employment is up by 2.4 million since we voted

Report and charts by Facts4EU, with additional commentary by Richard Tice MP, Deputy Leader of Reform UK, and the Rt Hon Sir John Redwood, and in association with GB News with whom we worked on last week's business growth report.

1. Business investment

It is easy to continue with the items on the LibDems’ list

In the big "Let's rejoin the EU's Customs Union" motion, the LibDem's 'Europe' spokesman, Dr Al Pinkerton MP, also mentioned business investment as having been “choked”, and as this is not often discussed by Brexiteers, below is the proof that he could not be more wrong.

In fact it has risen by 19.5% in real terms (after taking off the effects of inflation) since the UK actually left the EU’s Customs Union and Single Market at the end of the Transition Period on 31 December 2020.

Richard Tice MP gives GB News and Facts4EU his exclusive thoughts on business investment

Pictured right: Richard Tice MP, Deputy Leader, Reform UK

Far from being “choked”, the excellent chart below by Facts4EU demonstrates that UK business investment has in fact risen since Brexit.

Just as our Chancellor seems to have a problem recognising which way is up when it comes to her level of borrowing, so our LibDem friends have a similar problem when it comes to the mathematics of investment.

UK investment is up by 19.5% in real terms
since the UK left the EU's Single Market and Customs Union

The Rt Hon Sir John Redwood comments to GB News and Facts4EU on business investment

Investment has grown well since we left the EU, contrary again to gloomy Remain forecasts. Our history in the EU showed that the more we accepted EU laws, taxes and directions, the slower our growth and the more obstacles to successful investment. Now we are out we are avoiding some of the most damaging new laws they are adopting.

The EU held us back. Draghi shows that, overall, the EU has lost out on the massive digital investment underway, led by huge US corporations.

UK investment is doing a bit better, and can increase thanks to Brexit as we distance ourselves from the restrictive and costly rules crippling the EU's growth as identified by Mr Draghi. The UK has more digital investment than comparable EU countries, and needs to use its freedoms to expand it further.

Richard Tice MP comments further to GB News and Facts4EU on business investment

It should be remembered that Germany has its own troubles on investment and other issues, being in recession after its immigration policies have failed and after struggling with the EU’s Net Zero policies.

Our private sector can do much, much better of course, but this has far less to do with Brexit than with a tax code so long and complex it could consume the shelf-space of four copies of the entire wizardry output of J. K. Rowling. We shall of course be wielding the editor’s red pen to this code, making investment a great, great deal easier in the future.

Logo © Reform UK

None of us wish to see our businesses going abroad to seek further phases of funding for their investment needs.

2. Trade - exports

The paper also mentions trade and the LibDem's spokesman described this as having been "strangled" by Brexit. Once again, contrary to what the public are told, exports have actually risen. Below is the proof, with data from the Office for National Statistics.

UK's exports of goods and services have grown by 19.2% in real terms
since UK left EU's Customs Union and Single Market

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The Rt Hon Sir John Redwood gives GB News and Facts4EU his exclusive thoughts on the growth in exports

Our trade has flourished since Brexit. There was no collapse as the Remainers forecast before and after the event. Our exports of services, especially to non-EU destinations have soared, aided by new Trade Agreements that at last include the service chapters the EU failed to negotiate.

2021, our first year out, brought 7.5% GDP growth - largely owing to Covid lockdowns for much of the previous year - and good growth in trade. So there was no negative Brexit effect in 2021 and no late scramble in 2020 to carry out trade transactions ahead of Brexit. Once again Remain forecasts were wrong.

Inside the EU our non-EU trade grew faster than our EU trade. By the time we left, well over half our trade was with non-EU countries. That was inevitable given the slow growth, high cost, over regulated nature of the EU getting in the way of business success.

3. Employment

Finally, we have to rebut yet another claim from the LibDem spokesman for 'Europe', this time about employment. Here is what he said in the 10-minute rule motion on 09 December motion in the Commons.

Third claim, made about a poor jobs market by a Rejoiner,
based on no evidence this has anything to do with Brexit

"At a time when Office for National Statistics data shows rising numbers of young Britons leaving to work overseas, we have a national duty to support growth, ease household pressure and give young people a compelling reason to build their futures here in the UK."

- The Rt Hon Dr Al Pinkerton MP, Commons, 09 Dec 2025

We do not dispute the number of young Britons leaving to work overseas - only the reasons for it. This has nothing to do with the EU's Customs Union and rather more to do with Rachel Reeves' Budget measures. The reality, as readers can see below, is that employment has increased significantly since the Referendum and since the UK actually left the EU.

It is perfectly clear from looking at the evidence from the Office for National Statistics that Brexit has not had a negative effect on employment. It continued to rise, aside from the usual fall during the Covid-19 period and stands significantly above its previous level.

This has not stopped Rejoiners like the LibDems, Sir Keir Starmer, Rachel Reeves, Labour, the SNP, and the Greens, from making their wild claims without quoting any facts whatsoever. On the other hand, our chart above cannot be refuted. This is the truth.

For many ordinary people, the thought of losing your job is catastrophic

As an example of the grossly inaccurate forecasts, Brexit Facts4EU.Org has chosen one of the most powerful and terrifying of HM Treasury’s many predictions of immediate catastrophe if the British people voted to leave. This was the issue of immediate job losses following a Leave vote.

For ordinary people, the threat of massive job losses resonates far more than many of the more arcane and complicated arguments about GDP, investment, and intricacies of EU membership.

Fancy a stroll down Memory Lane?

One month before the EU Referendum in 2016, Her Majesty’s Treasury embarked on a massive propaganda exercise designed to scare the living daylights out of the British people, if they dared to vote Leave. Below is a Brexit Facts4EU.Org chart, showing HM Treasury’s threats (in grey) compared to the reality of actual job numbers (in red). As ever we drew the actual employment numbers from official government statistics from the ONS.

The reality of jobs increases after the Referendum (in red)
Compared to HM Treasury's dire threats of IMMEDIATE job losses (in grey)

Statistical note : The Treasury was not able to give quarterly estimates for the job falls of up to 820,000 which it predicted. In the chart above we have therefore spread these over the two years period which they were forecasting for the immediate aftermath of a Leave vote.

About Project Paralysing Fear - by the Treasury and by the UK Government

On 23 May 2016 the Treasury published its official forecasts of what would happen in the event of a Leave vote. This was their ‘short-term impact assessment’. The long-term impact had already been described by them in a document 5 weeks earlier.

To be very clear, these were their threats of immediate impacts, not what would happen after the UK exited the EU in what was then thought to be 23 June 2018. In other words, these would be the consequences which would start the moment the British people put their cross in the ‘Leave’ box on the ballot paper.

Exactly one month before the EU Referendum

Excerpts from the then Chancellor George Osborne’s speech
At which George Osborne launched his Treasury's analysis if we voted Leave

“HM Treasury analysis: the immediate economic impact of leaving the EU”

“But what about the immediate impact on our economy? What will it mean next month, next year? And what will it mean for you?”
“Today the Treasury is publishing its detailed and rigorous analysis of the immediate impact of leaving the EU on growth, jobs, prices, wages, house prices and our nation’s finances.”
“They won’t take new people on; some will let existing people go. And what about families – how are they likely to respond? Families will also be uncertain about what is coming next.”

- The Chancellor, 23 May 2016, one month before the EU Referendum

These deliberate and wholly false forecasts were then used by the Government, the Remain campaign, and by the BBC and other pro-Remain media organisations – to devastating effect.

Above : © BBC - The BBC's then Economics Editor enthusiastically produced a film of the Treasury's false forecasts.

Observations

It is clear 2026 will be the year when Sir Keir Starmer and his Rejoiner colleagues will become even bolder in their pronouncements that Brexit has somehow failed the country, despite all the evidence to the contrary, and that the only answer is an increasing alignment with the EU. This will become evident in one legal instrument after another, affecting every part of our lives.

As each of these is announced we will stand to defend them. If we receive financial backing from the public this can be guaranteed. Without this, there is little we can do.

Please, please help us to carry on our vital work in defence of independence, sovereignty, democracy and freedom by donating today. Thank you.

[ Sources: ONS | HM Treasury | BBC ] Politicians and journalists can contact us for details, as ever.

Brexit Facts4EU.Org, Thurs 08 Jan 2026

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Reader Comments 7

1. Sparky , Thursday, January 08, 2026, 09:26:

It has been the inevitable uncertainty caused by Brexit that has damaged investment. The uncertainty was caused by the lack of plan and strategy, Brexit was a campaign mainly about immigration.
.
"A new study led by researchers at King’s Business School, Stanford University, the Bank of England and the University of Nottingham finds that Brexit has left the UK economy significantly smaller than it would otherwise have been.
Drawing on almost a decade of economic data and evidence from one of the UK’s largest surveys of senior executives, the Decision Maker Panel (DMP), the study estimates that by early 2025 GDP in the UK economy was between 6 and 8 per cent below its pre-Brexit level."
.
From The National "A study by economists at Stanford University, the Bank of England, and the National Institute of Economic and Social Research estimates that UK business investment is 12 to 18 per cent lower than it would have been if Britain had stayed in the EU. Researchers used almost a decade of data since the referendum, combining simulations based on macro data with estimates derived from micro data collected through surveys.
.
From the Economist "Brexit has deepened the British economy’s flaws and dulled its strengths"
.
From Brexit Fact Base. "UK is a ‘low investment nation’ relative to its OECD peers (pre- and post-Brexit)
Business investment is estimated to be 10% lower than without Brexit (reducing GDP by about £29 billion)
If UK GFCF matched OECD average as % of GDP, it would be investing about £30 billion a year more
UK business investment has only recently exceeded pre-pandemic levels"
.
I could also mention the BoE or the OBR but they are easy to search for: Have fun!

2. Mr Sceptic , Thursday, January 08, 2026, 11:23:

The silliness of Brexit: I can only travel in the EU for 90 days in a given period. But my labrador can travel for 120 days.

3. NH , Thursday, January 08, 2026, 12:07:

1. Sparky "A New Study"
It's not actually a new study is it, it's the same old report that the Lib Dems used and it's mainly an update of a report they produced in 2019. For the authors you left off the German Bundesbank and the assistance given by the Banqe de France, the Banca D'Italia and the European Investment Bank. Despite all of the organisations providing personal to produce the report the all refuse to endorse it as being accurate !
.
As stated before it does not compare the UK with the EU it mainly compares the UK with non EU countries and only on a per capita basis. The main conclusion is major nations outside the EU perform far better than those in the EU (which EU ministers and politicians fully confirm) and nations that control immigration perform better on a per capita basis than nations that do not.
.
Remainers are so desperate they have moved on from their fear stories about economic collapse to the fear of missing out.

4. NH , Thursday, January 08, 2026, 12:13:

2. Sceptic
Don't you mean the silliness of the rest of the World. They are so silly in controlling their borders that they have all managed to outperform the EU countries consistently for over 25 years.

5. knies , Thursday, January 08, 2026, 15:17:

There was not a lack of plan or strategy, but there was deliberate obstruction to execute brexit. It is time to take legal action against all for spreading lies about brexit (incl. the BBC). The uncertainty was caused by the "experts" and other anti-brexiteers (incl. the BBC).

6. Gazzablack , Thursday, January 08, 2026, 18:33:

2, septic
.
That would be EU rules, not Brexit rules
.
You may think you're critiquing the "silliness of Brexit" but in reality you are critiquing the "silliness of the EU".
.

7. Gazzablack , Thursday, January 08, 2026, 19:30:

For those who harp on from a position of ignorance about how the small boats are caused by Brexit and leaving the Dublin Regulations.
.
Well the Dublin Regulations are being removed in July 2026, to be replaced with the EU Migration Pact and "burden sharing"
.
.
Meanwhile
.
Excerpt from the FGS Global Radar 2026, on the need for reform in the EU
.
Significant majorities across the entire EU for needing powers returned to EU member states, and for major reform on how the EU operates.

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2026 – Part II of "The year you will be lied to on an epic scale about Brexit"

The refreshing truth about Brexit with evidence from the official sources, not "forecasts" With Sir John Redwood and Richard Tice MP

The second part of the key facts to take into this year

It is easy to continue with the items on the LibDems’ list

Any credit card user

Paypal Users Only - Choose amount first

For many ordinary people, the thought of losing your job is catastrophic

Fancy a stroll down Memory Lane?

About Project Paralysing Fear - by the Treasury and by the UK Government

Observations

Any credit card user

Paypal Users Only - Choose amount first

Reader Comments 7

1. Sparky , Thursday, January 08, 2026, 09:26:

2. Mr Sceptic , Thursday, January 08, 2026, 11:23:

3. NH , Thursday, January 08, 2026, 12:07:

4. NH , Thursday, January 08, 2026, 12:13:

5. knies , Thursday, January 08, 2026, 15:17:

6. Gazzablack , Thursday, January 08, 2026, 18:33:

7. Gazzablack , Thursday, January 08, 2026, 19:30:

The refreshing truth about Brexit with evidence from the official sources, not "forecasts"
With Sir John Redwood and Richard Tice MP