Starmer’s migrant deal with Macron this week is more likely to be ‘six in, one out’

Our new study shows France took back less than 50 migrants a year from UK under ‘Dublin Agreement’

Montage © Facts4EU.Org 2025

Data reveals 82% of UK’s requests were never returned to France, despite EU rules

Today we can reveal some more bad news for the Prime Minister, ahead of the likely announcement of a new 'One in, One out' Macron’s Migrants deal Sir Keir is planning to make during the French President’s visit starting tomorrow (Tuesday 08 Jul 2025).

On Saturday the Facts4EU think-tank, together with the surging new ‘Stand for Our Sovereignty’ organisation, released a report exclusively to GB News showing the shocking facts of France’s lack of performance under the EU’s ‘Dublin agreement’ for returning migrants to the country they first entered.

Some Rejoiners have been suggesting that if the UK were still in the EU we would benefit from the Dublin agreement because we would be able to return our migrants to France. In fact that agreement ceased a few years after the UK left. Even if it were still in operation, the figures below show it would not have had any noticeable impact on the UK’s illegal migrants crossing the Channel.

The data Sir Keir would rather you didn’t see before Macron’s visit this week

The Facts4EU and Stand for Our Sovereignty teams conducted extensive research of all information available about the EU’s former ‘migrant returns’ deal, called the Dublin agreement. We used the official records of both the EU statistics agency and the UK Home Office, which of course did not agree in all details. We also researched French government files but these were unforthcoming.

Unfortunately for Sir Keir, however, both sets of data from the EU and the UK confirm three things:

The French don’t seem to like taking back their illegal migrants, and
They don’t seem to be very good at obeying EU regulations, and
They took back a smaller and smaller percentage as the years went by

Brexit Facts4EU.Org Summary

Percentage of illegal migrants France took back under the Dublin Agreement

(Note: Figures are for all the years we have been able to obtain.]

2008 : 52.8% (First year data is available)
2019 : 10.7% (Last pre-Covid year before Brexit)

France started by taking back only half its illegal migrants… and went downhill fast from there

Taking back only just over half the formal requests received from HM Government was not a good start for France. It must be remembered that this was an EU-wide agreement.

Only a dozen years later this already-low performance had become far worse. In 2019, the last reliable year for data such as this, the percentage was down to 10.7%. Almost one in 10. This is a very long way from the ‘one in, one out’ deal which Sir Keir is strongly rumoured to be signing this week.

The eminent constitutional expert in Parliament for many years, Sir Bill Cash, commented:

“Here is yet another example of Labour’s stream of cosmetic proposals to deal with issues. The real solution to these challenges, of course, lies in legislation.
“There is a need for clear and unambiguous legislation to override the European Convention on Human Rights, the Refugees Convention, the Human Rights Act, and other conventions, and by doing so in explicit terms the Supreme Court will accept.

“This is based on the all-important principle of legality, as evidenced in the case of an Iraqi national where the judgement was quite explicit about this in paragraph 144 of the Rwanda judgement itself: “…in any event, the principle of legality does not permit a court to disregard an unambiguous expression of Parliament’s intention such as that with which we are concerned in the present case.”
“The Labour Party simply will not accept this because they’re ideologically incapable of understanding that this straightforward solution is in line with our own, unique, unwritten constitution, unlike other European member states.”

The Dublin Agreement was not even a ‘returns deal’

It must be remembered that the Dublin Agreement was not strictly-speaking a returns deal. It was an agreement for migrants to be returned to the EU member country where they had first requested asylum. In short, France was simply being asked to take back and continue processing these migrants.

For Sir Keir’s alleged ‘one in, one out’ deal with President Macron, it would seem that the UK will be asked to take migrants from France who have some connection with the UK – family or similar. These are therefore people with a chance of being allowed to stay, under the UK’s current lax system and the ever-present threat of being referred to the ECHR.

The majority of the illegal migrants crossing the Channel from France by rubber boats are young men from countries far away, with little or no connection with the UK, and therefore have no genuine reason to be granted asylum. Crucially, although they come from France, they are not the ones whom President Macron will be asking the UK to take.

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And then there’s the small matter of the bill

It seems that every time Sir Keir Starmer and David Lammy talk to foreign governments, it ends up costing the UK taxpayer money. So far the taxpayer has seen nothing in return.

Now we will be asked to pay for some extra new ‘elite’ gendarme squad to paddle up and down in the shallows and turn back some of the migrants boats while they are in shallow water, by puncturing the rubber boats themselves. This all comes on top of the £0.5bn the British taxpayer has already given to the French government for – as far as can be ascertained – dramatically increasing the number of illegal migrants making the crossing to the UK this year, once again.

Commenting to GB News, one of Stand for Our Sovereignty’s Vice-Presidents, Claire Bullivant, said:

“None of the costs for all the sovereignty giveaways have been quantified in any detail, but all have been mentioned by the EU as involving UK payments
“They each represent surrenders of sovereignty which are bad enough in themselves, but when the UK has to pay to give away its sovereignty, this is when we really do say:
“‘Enough is enough.’”
“Please do join and support us in this fight.”
- Claire Bullivant, Vice-Chairman, Stand for Our Sovereignty, 05 July 2025

The ‘State Visit’

As Sir Keir rolls out the red carpet for Emmanuel Macron in London on Tuesday, his welcome will not only include a triumphal carriage ride with King Charles, a private tour of the extensive gardens of Buckingham Palace with His Majesty King Charles as his tour guide, but also an address to both House of Parliament.

It seems that even this is not enough for Sir Keir. Discussions are now well-advanced between French and British officials regarding the UK paying for yet more ‘elite’ French squads of Gendarmes. At the weekend the French were careful to ensure TV coverage of Gendarmes wading in and puncturing migrant boats to prevent them from going any further.

Stand for Our Sovereignty’s other Vice-Chairman was uncompromising:

“Here is a man who – to put it mildly – has hardly been a friend to the United Kingdom. Examples are legion but let’s take one from Sir Keir’s ‘EU Reset’ Summit’, which we refer to as his ‘Summer Sovereignty Sale’.
“Just about the only quantifiable fact that came out of that sorry affair was an eleventh hour demand by Macron to extend the current wholly unacceptable fishing deal for another 12 years. Starmer meekly agreed, and decimated our fishing industry for a period so long that many skippers will have retired before it completes.
“And all for nothing in return. Shameful.
“‘Enough is enough.’”
- Ben Philips, Vice-Chairman, Stand for Our Sovereignty, 05 July 2025

Facts4EU will be reporting separately on the French police response and in particular the various agreements that have already been reached by Home Secretary Yvette Cooper, with talks having starting in November last year.

Observations

We invite readers to imagine a situation where the roles above are reversed and French are seeing thousands of illegal migrants crossing from England to France.

In this scenario, the British have been content to see so many tens of thousands departing their shores each year that they have not, frankly, put up much résistance. After years of inactivity – or lack of effective activity – by the British, the French insist something must be done. The British government then suggests that perhaps some things could be done, but it will be expensive and the French will have to pay.

“But it’s a British problem, you must pay to solve it,” say the French in a vain hope. Very quickly the French concede and offer to pay for whatever it takes to stop boats setting off from Dover for Calais and Boulogne. “Well, okay,” say the British, “but no guarantees it will work, mind. Let’s see… about half a billion quid should just about cover it to begin with, and we’ll see where we go from there.”

Does this sound remotely plausible? No, we don’t think so either.

Finally – and to be fair to the French – these illegal migrants have passed through many EU countries before reaching the northern shores of France. Ultimately the ownership of the entire problem of illegal immigration like this lies firmly at the door of one Ursula von der Leyen. And a very great deal to a certain fellow countrywoman of hers, former German Chancellor Angela Merkel, who opened the doors to Europe in 2015.

Yet one more example of the ineptitude of the EU Empire.

Please, please help us to carry on our vital work in defence of independence, sovereignty, democracy and freedom by donating today. Thank you.

[ Sources: EU Commission official statistics agency | Home Office | French Interior Ministry ] Politicians and journalists can contact us for details, as ever.

Brexit Facts4EU.Org, Mon 07 July 2025

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Reader Comments 9

1. Sparky , Monday, July 07, 2025, 06:48:

The drop shown above is possibly down to the Cons Govt not processing migrants.
.
The Independent ran a good analysis on illegal migration in Feb. It stated that 18,987 immigrants had been returned to countries of origin since Labour came to power. A graph in the same piece show how boat migrants has increased significantly since Brexit.
.
Looked like bit of action for the cameras but good to see the French Police deflating the boats.
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Three of the countries that boat migrants are coming from are Afghanistan, Syria and Iran. The UK should not have joined George W Bush in these areas. The mess left when the USA pulled out is a source of illegal immigration.
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I wonder how many people will be complaining about illegal immigration whilst they are sat waiting for their food delivery by Deliveroo. Facts4EU should be calling for a boycott of Deliveroo etc.
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Legal net migration is down by half last year, it was only 430,000 in 2024. Well done Brexit!

2. Have You Wondered , Monday, July 07, 2025, 06:56:

.
I think his failure to respond to a national crisis is DELIBERATE! Why? There are 7 pieces of international regulation (I'll post a precis of them on request) along with a remedy within the ECHR Art.15 and 1951 Refugee Convention Art. 9 "...in the interest of essential national security" - that the UK and EU ignore.
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There has to be a secret UK Govt. deal with the EU where the UK has for a long time agreed to take a share of the migrant influx into Europe and the UK pays the EU to bring them halfway across the Channel? To me, this failure to respond to a national crisis is DELIBERATE because even putting all the UK and EU politicians together - none could be this inept.
.

3. Have You Wondered , Monday, July 07, 2025, 07:02:

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The EU have already in effect withdrawn from the ECHR?
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Take a good look at the EU. France, Germany ,Poland, Hungary ,Austria, Slovenia, Denmark and Italy have all used a suspension of Schengen (the free movement of people) enabling them to patrol their borders, instead of using the ECHR ARTICLE 15 Derogation in time of emergency and the 1951 Refugee Convention article 9 "...in the interest of essential national security" , for which they would be crticised profoundly.
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So why is the UK allowing this invasion?
.

4. Gazzablack , Monday, July 07, 2025, 10:00:

1, sparkless
.
The word "possibly" doing a lot of heavy lifting there Hiro.
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I bet the Independent didn't include the caveat that none of those "returned" came across in small boats, or that those who were returned were done so as a result of agreements negotiated by the last Tory government.
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One thing we do know.
The Rwanda scheme DID have a deterrent effect, with crossings reducing before Two Tier cancelled it.
(During the anti immigration riots in NI it was pointed out that when the Rwanda data scheme was about to be enacted migrants crossed into ROI to avoid being sent there, and on the day that Two Tier cancelled it, they all crossed back into NI)

5. Colin , Monday, July 07, 2025, 15:03:

Maybe it was a but naive to think that leaving the EU would miraculously solve the illegal immigration into the UK?
The facts are that illegal immigration into the UK has ballooned since we left the EU.

6. Sparky , Monday, July 07, 2025, 16:29:

4 G. In an impact assessment of the Rwanda policy, the Home Office itself acknowledged that there is “little to no evidence” that restrictive policies discourage people from migrating.

7. Diane , Monday, July 07, 2025, 17:00:

(5) Colin - Maybe it was rather our gullibility in expecting & believing that our UK Gov had the will, the drive, the nous, the determination to do what was necessary. It was afraid, I suspect. Afraid to do the right thing. And it is still the case. It did not balloon simply due to our leaving the EU. Take a look around and see / read what is happening in the EU & elsewhere and the outdated legislation we are tied to. Tensions in Germany / Poland to name but one. Borders, or talk of them, all over the place. We have the One In / One Out Anglo French proposal in the pipeline this week. How that will reduce the taxpayer's total liabilities is highly questionable. Let's wait for the detail but many in the know are not hopeful. Labour's backbenchers already preparing to rebel against what they see might be on the table however. They want more safe routes, yes more, without having any consideration, ability and maybe intelligence to see and evaluate the wider picture for our country. Labour has had a year to bring in new, emergency legislation or some deterrent. The one deterrent we had they called a gimmick, a cheek after what they have come up with since. A number of EU southern state members also already complaining to the EU Commission as to what this possible bilateral arrangement might mean for them, so they can likely scupper it all too.

8. Gazzablack , Monday, July 07, 2025, 17:49:

6, sparkless
.
They should have gone to specsavers.
There WAS a drop n crossings when it looked like Rwanda was a "go
And there was anecdotal evidence from NI on the effect Rwanda had on migrant movement between the two Ireland's

9. Parky , Monday, July 07, 2025, 21:18:

Maybe it was a bit naive to think that staying in the EU would miraculously solve the illegal immigration into the UK.
The facts are that illegal immigration into the EU has ballooned since the UK left.
Maybe it caused all those Mexicans to try and illegally enter the the U.S. as well. Yes that must be it, sounds good to me. Could always check it in the Guardian or Independent just to confirm the "facts".

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