EXCLUSIVE: Even before Monday’s Inauguration, the EU's £½ TRILLION underspend on defence is on Trump’s mind

New President demands EU27 spend 5% of GDP on defence - Most aren’t even spending half that

Montage © Facts4EU.Org 2025

UK has been the top performer in last 10 years, spending £50bn more than NATO minimum

Next Monday a Trump wildfire will hit the White House, with the inauguration of the 47th President of the United States. Importantly for the UK and the EU, the US will have a new Commander-in-Chief of its Armed Forces.

Today the Brexit Facts4EU.Org think-tank reveals the first part in a devastating series of reports, which we are sharing with our friends at CIBUK and GB News.

A Brexit Facts4EU.Org Pre-Trump Mini-Series
Trump, defence, and the EU - battlelines drawn

Part I (This report)- Even before Monday’s Inauguration, the EU's £½ TRILLION underspend on defence is on Trump’s mind
Part II - Exclusive : President Trump’s secretive Florida meeting with NATO’s new Secretary General
Part III - President Trump’s Belles and Beaux of the Ball – Which British and European celebs are going?
Part IV - In 14 years as Dutch PM, Rutte never once spent close to the NATO minimum on defence

Pre-inauguration, the incoming President has already had things to say about Europe and defence to add to his scathing remarks during his first term as President. His target was the EU’s pitiful defence spending record. Amongst his very recent comments, he has called for a significant uplift in defence spending from all the NATO allies, to 5%. NATO’s current minimum spend of GDP on defence is 2%, as we will explain further down in this report.

"I think NATO should have 5%. They can all afford it, but they should be at 5%, not 2%."
- President Donald Trump, press conference, Palm Beach, 07 Jan 2025.

The man most likely to be elected German Chancellor next month, Friedrich Merz, was dismissive, telling the German press:

“The 2, 3 or 5 percent are basically irrelevant. What matters is that we do what is necessary to defend ourselves.”
- Friedrich Merz, press conference, Germany, 08 Jan 2025.

Brexit Facts4EU.Org Summary

The EU's dire service record on defence spending

Trump calls for massive hike in NATO defence spending from all NATO allies, to 5% of GDP
EU member countries are split on this issue, ranging from the broadly positive to the outright negative
The UK Government of Sir Keir Starmer has yet to commit
EU's 10-year underspend on defence totals more than half-a-TRILLION pounds

1. Defence spending of the UK and EU : 2014 (when Putin first invaded Ukraine’s Crimea) to 2024

2. How the EU’s defence underspend breaks down by country (the worst offenders)

President Trump and Brexit Facts4EU.Org

One of the advantages of the Facts4EU team having been working seven days a week for the last 10 years is that our research archives are extensive. Back in 2018, we made a note of a Tweet which President Trump had made about the EU's spending on defence, and here it is. This shows the President's views are clear and have been consistent down the years.

Many countries in NATO, which we are expected to defend, are not only short of their current commitment of 2% (which is low), but are also delinquent for many years in payments that have not been made. Will they reimburse the U.S.?
— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) July 10, 2018

What we have shown above is that the EU's "delinquency" from 2014-2024 amounts to a total of $655bn - over £1/2 TRILLION pounds - which President Trumps suggests should be "reimbursed".

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The battlelines are starting to be drawn - here is the history

At the NATO Summit in Cardiff back in 2014, the NATO member countries committed to spending a minimum of 2% of their GDP on defence.

This came as Vladimir Putin had just undertaken his first illegal invasion of Ukraine’s territory, which ended in him annexing Ukraine’s Crimea peninsula.

For years Brexit Facts4EU.Org has published reports showing how only a handful of EU countries kept to this agreement reached in Cardiff. We demonstrated that the UK consistently met and exceeded the minimum standard.

NATO's flag

The ‘Biden their time' years

Then along came Joe Biden. Suddenly the pressure was off.

In 2023, just over a year ago, the largest potential spender in the EU (Germany) only managed to spend 1.64% of its GDP on defence. Its average over the previous 10 years was only 1.42%. We should add that the German government’s estimate for 2024 is 2.12%. If true, this would be the highest annual jump since we began keeping records back in 2014. Needless to say we will be looking very, very carefully at the final 2024 numbers when they are released, as we have seen no signs over the past year from the German military of any sudden, large build-up in its capacity.

Below we show Germany versus the NATO minimum and the UK

In Part II tomorrow

In Part II, we have an exclusive report about a secretive meeting between President-elect Trump and the new Secretary General of NATO. We will look at President Trump’s likely relationship with NATO’s new man, the EU-loving former Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte who was forced out of power in his own country in 2024. This relationship may well prove to be feisty. We have some startling information for readers so we urge you not to miss this!

Observations

On Monday next week President Trump will enter his second term of office. We do not expect him to hang around on any of the policies he has been broaching, including defence.

Just as he has been turning up the heat on possible tariffs for EU goods entering the USA, we anticipate it will not take long before he starts to attack the EU – and the NATO headquarters in Brussels (yes, really) – over all the years during which EU countries have relied on the US and the UK for their defence.

With US and EU battlelines starting to be drawn on this issue, and the EU splitting in two once again on a key area of policy, Facts4EU.Org has revealed the exclusive findings of our in-depth study of the latest NATO records. These are most unlikely to please the President, but we will send him a copy anyway, out of courtesy. We’re sure he will like the way we’re exposing the facts, but he will not like what the facts say.

The 'back-pay' of $195bn which the EU owes

In our report today we have not simply looked at each country’s current level of spending, but at just how much they should catch up on. NATO does not summarise this shortfall, so we dived into their raw data and have done their job for them. To our knowledge the Facts4EU.Org think-tank is the first organisation such as ours to present the facts like this. It involved a lot of detailed work but we feel it was worth it.

From a UK perspective, it could be said that the United Kingdom has been subsidising EU countries by defending them, and thereby allowing those countries to enjoy the £1/2 TRILLION which they have benefited from, by not contributing their fair share to the defence of Europe.

When President Trump entered his first term of office, he lambasted European countries in no uncertain terms for their failure to invest in their own defence. Heavily criticised in Europe at the time, Trump’s strong statements nevertheless provoked a response and EU countries slowly began to increase their defence expenditure. Unfortunately this was all far too slow and distinctly lacking in ambition. Notwithstanding, some improvements were made.

In Part II tomorrow

In Part II, we have an exclusive report about a secretive meeting between President-elect Trump and the new Secretary General of NATO. We will look at President Trump’s likely relationship with NATO’s new man, the former Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte, who was forced out of power in his won country in 2024. This may well prove to be feisty. We have some startling information for readers so we urge you not to miss this!

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Brexit Facts4EU.Org, Wed 15 Jan 2025

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Reader Comments 8

1. Ashley Great Britain , Wednesday, January 15, 2025, 07:20:

The EU and especially countries in it like Germany, Spain, Italy and France have underpaid Nato for a long time. They are like leaches, happy to have other countries pay and defend them.
Now Germany says they don't care about the payments, they should invest in defending themselves. They should be repaying and saying sorry we will raise our payments now and thank you for carrying us.
Trump highlighted this in his last term.
I don't think he'll take any prisoners this time.

2. Sparky , Wednesday, January 15, 2025, 10:07:

Measuring over 10 years is conveniently showing other countries, this piece particularly focussed on showing Germany in a negative light. Current German spending as a % of GDP is 2.1% compared to 2.3% for UK.
.
With modern warfare and weapons a small number of personnel can be very effective as long as the weapons possessed provide a large enough, an advantage uk armed forces do possess but as seen in Afghanistan and Iraq boots on the ground is crucial. In 2024 the British Army decreased in size by 3% (see FullFact). The Royal Navy currently has 62 vessels, in 2018 it had 72 vessels.
.
The UK does not posses or can afford a large enough force to stand alone, it is and will be for the forceable future reliant on allies in any conflict. Given what’s happened in Iraq and Afghanistan over the last 25 years, we need to be very careful before relying on the USA.

3. KB , Wednesday, January 15, 2025, 10:47:

There's no point spending more money just for the for the sake of it. Surely the metric to use is the amount of military resources available to a country. i.e. the size of the armed forces and the amount of kit available to them.
Military spending is just as much of a black hole as the NHS. It's quite possible to spend loads more money on it without seeing any real benefit.
For example, I read that more civil servants work in Defence Procurement than we have soldiers in the army.

4. Sparky , Wednesday, January 15, 2025, 17:05:

MPs have backed a EU-UK Youth Mobility Scheme in parliament today which will get its first reading later this year.

5. LuxuryBalloon , Wednesday, January 15, 2025, 20:57:

If Trump and the USA have enough money to buy/invade fellow NATO member Greenland, surely the USA has enough money to cough up for NATO.
We had 20,000 British troops occupying Germany until 2010. We still have the Normandy Barracks in Paderborn. British soldiers are stationed in Germany right now. A bit harsh now to accuse Germany for not acting like a full NATO member. We have lulled Germany into a false sense of military security for generations.

6. Ashley Great Britain , Thursday, January 16, 2025, 07:00:

5 lux balloon.
-
British forces have been based in Germany for decades primarily to keep an eye on them, to prevent them from attempting another Europe take over.
That's why Germany turned to lawfare through the EU, Becoming the dominant force at the top table.

7. LuxuryBalloon , Thursday, January 16, 2025, 07:08:

6 Ashley … we have been occupying Germany for decades … but we have not asked, demanded and forced Germany to pay for it.

8. Ashley Great Britain , Thursday, January 16, 2025, 17:41:

7 lux balloon.
-
Yes that's because we're very nice people.

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