Scary summary of benefit claimants, explaining why Rachel raised your taxes

8 million now on Universal Credit benefits, half of them with no work requirements

Montage © Facts4EU.Org 2025

Just who is all this benefitting?

This report by the Facts4EU think-tank analyses the extraordinarily rapid growth in the millions of people on benefits in the United Kingdom. It follows our report on public spending for GB News in the aftermath of Rachel Reeves’ further increases in tax in her second Budget on 26 November 2025.

In that public spending report we identified the £1.3 trillion spent by all branches of government. This report focuses on the area of benefits, which forms a significant area of spending, with a particular emphasis on Universal Credit. Facts4EU have researched and produced this report, with additional comments from Sir John Redwood, and in association with GB News.

Overall summary

The figures overall are quite extraordinary and there are so many breakdowns we can only provide so much in a summary report such as this. We start with the number of benefit claimants under the Universal Credit system, which came in to replace a great number of separate benefits.

There were 8.3 million people (8,277,289) claiming Universal Credit as at end-Oct 2025. This shows an increase of 1.1m people since the same time last year (+15.5% in 12 months). As if this increase were not enough, below we show the number who do not appear to have to make any effort to work, and the increase since 2020.

Those who qualify for health exemptions

There are different categories for Universal Credit and for the health component within this. This partly appears to arise out of the transition from one of the previous benefit systems it replaced: Employment and Support Allowance, or ESA.

• 3.2 million people were on Universal Credit (UC) health, up 933,000 (41%) in the year. 69% of the increase is from ESA (Employment and Support Allowance) transitions
• Of these, 294,000 (9%) had acceptable medical evidence of a restricted ability to work pre-WCA (Work Capability Assessment); 430,000 (13%) were assessed as limited capability for work (LCW), and 2.5 million (77%) were assessed as limited capability for work and work-related activity (LCWRA)
• Of all claimants on UC health, 58% were aged under 50, of whom 8% were aged under 25. (It should be noted: this is 8% of the total, not 8% of under 25s, so is a much larger percentage of under 25s.)

Proportions of Universal Credit claimants

• In September 2025, 39% of people on Universal Credit were on UC Health – up 7 percentage points from September 2024
• Within England, the region with the highest proportion of UC health cases relative to overall UC claimants is the North-East (44%), followed by South-West (42%) and North-West (42%) – and the lowest is London (32%).

‘Social Protection’ and all its component costs

Buried in one of the DWP documents we found a table relating to ‘social protection’ and the costs associated with each element. We have summarised this in the chart below. One of the things this shows is how costs are clearly spread across different functions, with a person receiving sum benefits in respect of different elements of their needs.

For example, a person could be old, ill, and a survivor of abuse.

UC WCA Decisions (in the period April 2019 to August 2025)

• 4.1 million Universal Credit Work Capability Assessment (WCA) decisions have been made in the period from April 2019 to August 2025
• Of these, 12% of decisions found claimants had no limited capability for work and hence no longer on UC health, 17% limited capability for work (LCW), and 71% limited capability for work and work-related activity (LCWRA)
• Within England, the region with the highest proportion of LCWRA decisions was the North-West (73%) and the lowest the North-East (66%)
• Of all WCA decisions in the period January 2022 to August 2025, at least 61% of them are recorded as having mental and behavioural disorders, albeit this may not be their primary medical condition.

Below we show the breakdown of those with ‘mental and behavioural disorders’. We should stress that this category does not include pathological illnesses but might include those people who are suffering from the types of condition which many people may not consider to be reasons to be signed off sick.

Assessing claimants by telephone

One of the disturbing aspects of all of this that we came across more than once was the assessment of benefit claimants by telephone interview.

The assessment and determination of an applicant’s claim is – or should be – a serious matter. The outcome for the genuine claimant is important because the amount of the benefit they receive, and the lifestyle they are able to have, depends on this.

Conversely, the outcome for the taxpayer of a somewhat optimistic (or fraudulent) claim by an applicant can result in overly generous payments for years. Repeated on a number of cases running into the tens of thousands, this can have a major impact on the overall amounts being paid out each year.

We believe this issue is being addressed and we certainly hope so.

We began looking at benefit payments as part of the burgeoning welfare bill, which in itself rose out of the enormous increase in taxes in Rachel Reeves’ second Budget, after telling us all that she was getting all the pain out of the way in her first Budget.

The sheer number of those on Universal Credit – over eight million and rising fast - is worrying. The number of young people is equally troubling.

[ Sources: Dept for Work and Pensions ] Politicians and journalists can contact us for details, as ever.

Brexit Facts4EU.Org, Thurs 18 Dec 2025

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