5.6 trillion reasons why the EU has called the UK “Treasure Island” for the last 20 years

While the PM was ‘aligning more closely’ in Berlin, we analysed the bloc’s latest dealings with the UK

Montage © Facts4EU.Org 2024

Facts4EU summarises just how well the EU has done – and continues to do – out of exporting to the UK

Today our unique investigation of EU files reveals that in the last 20 years the EU has exported goods to the value of over €5½ TRILLION (£4.7 tn GBP) to its ‘Treasure Island’ : the United Kingdom. In doing so, the EU has made a surplus on this trade of nearly €2 TRILLION (£1.7 tn GBP).

A week ago today, British PM Sir Keir Starmer was in Berlin being friendly with his opposite number, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz. He then moved on to Paris where he spent time with President Macron, talking about the same subjects.

During his trip he talked of ‘closer alignment, a ‘reset’ of the UK-EU relationship, a new treaty, and even a defence agreement with the EU. The PM arrived in Berlin just two days after the EU released its latest trade figures, which we summarise below.

Brexit Facts4EU.Org Summary

20 years of the EU selling its goods to ‘Treasure Island’ (the UK), 2004-2023

1. 20-Year Overview

Total EU exports to UK : €5,561.6 bn (£4,712 bn GBP)
Total EU surplus on the trade : €1,942.1 bn (£1,646 bn GBP)

[Source : EU Commission data, accessed 26 Aug - 01 Sept 2024. Spot exchange rate from Bank of England.]

2. EU annual goods exports to UK, 20 years from 2004-2023

EU goods exports to UK 2023 : €334.6 billion
Total EU goods exports to UK in 20 years from 2004 : €5.56 TRILLION

3. EU annual surplus (exports minus imports), 20 years from 2004-2023

Total EU surplus on the trade : €1,942.1 bn (£1,646 bn GBP)

Is it any wonder the EU prevented the UK from doing its own trade deals during the 4½ years it took to leave?

For decades, the UK was a member of the European Union and as such was seen as a captive market. For all this time, the United Kingdom was prevented from doing its own favourable trade deals around the world and - because of the EU’s high tariffs on many imported goods – British consumers paid the heavy price of EU membership.

Following the Brexit referendum vote the EU then prevented the UK from starting trade negotiations with other countries during the 4½ years it took to escape its empire.

The Rt Hon Sir John Redwood, former Secretary of State, commented on our report

"The trade figures reveal how EU membership skewed U.K. trade. The EU took off tariffs and barriers to things they were good at, but were not so keen to lower barriers for all those services the U.K. excelled at, whilst imports of food, energy and manufactures grew. U.K. exports to the rest of the world grew faster than to the EU, especially in services, showing how EU barriers held us back.
"The EU agriculture, energy and industrial policies all conspired to hinder U.K. output and make the U.K. more dependent on importing everything from apples to steel and from electricity to cars from the EU.
"Now the U.K. is out if can accelerate the growth of its non EU trade. It also needs to change EU farming and energy rules to promote much more home production to start to get those excessive imports down."
- The Rt Hon Sir John Redwood, 03 Sept 2024

The EU’s surplus keeps on building, year after year

Today, more than three and a half years after finally leaving the EU at the end of 2020, we show how the Brussels bloc is continuing to make vast sums out of the UK each year. It seems the UK’s great new free trade deals such as CPTPP cannot come soon enough.

We now have the EU’s trade figures for the first two quarters of this year (2024). These show that the EU’s trade surpluses with the UK continue to grow, despite the UK’s formal exit from the bloc at the end of December 2020. Below we present the first half-year results for the four years since the UK technically became independent.

Brexit Facts4EU.Org Summary

4. The EU’s surplus, first half of the year, 2021-2024

1st half 2021 : € 67.0 bn
1st half 2022 : € 56.4 bn
1st half 2023 : € 72.9 bn
1st half 2024 : € 88.7 bn

Observations

EU leaders are much happier with Sir Keir Starmer’s performance as UK Prime Minister than the British people seem to be, at least according to the latest polls. He was once again warmly welcomed in Berlin and in Paris last week, as he talked glowingly of the UK seeking a better relationship with the EU, aligning more closely with it, and even of signing a new treaty and a new defence agreement.

This is all music to the EU’s ears, of course, as they see the early signs of being to able to sign the UK back up to an ever-increasing number of EU institutions, laws, and rules.

Meanwhile, the EU wants nothing more than to see its ‘Treasure Island’ continuing to buy EU goods in greater values each year. As the EU’s exports to other world markets have been falling, and with the whole EU plunging into a trade deficit on a regular basis, at least it can rely on good old Britain to keep a proportion of its factories alive and its people in employment. In the last 20 years, the EU has never once had a trade deficit with the UK.

The future lies beyond the EU

As we have reported here and here, the UK is now less than three months away from being able to trade virtually tariff-free with certain countries worldwide when it becomes the first non-founding member of CPTPP, a trading bloc with a population more than 30% larger than that of the EU. Many other trade deals have also been signed and more are being negotiated. Brexit Britain is slowly resuming its traditional role as a player in world trade.

In time we expect the EU to see a faster drop in its share of the UK’s global purchases – a share which has already been steadily falling over the last 20 years. Perhaps one day the EU will find itself buying more from the UK than the UK buys from the EU. No that would shock some Brussels-dwellers…

NOTICE : Facts4EU has now scaled back to publishing 5 days-a-week

For over eight years we have worked seven days-a-week. As far as we are aware we are the only organisation of our type to have done this. We are grateful to those of our readers who have made donations but sadly the level of our funding is now such that we must make it stretch for as long as we can. This means team members taking other paid work and reducing our output to five days-a-week.

Please, please help us to carry on our vital work in defence of independence, sovereignty, democracy and freedom by donating today. Thank you.

[ Sources: EU Commission (Eurostat) ] Politicians and journalists can contact us for details, as ever.

Brexit Facts4EU.Org, Wed 04 Sept 2024

Click here to go to our news headlines

Please scroll down to COMMENT on the above article.
And don't forget actually to post your message after you have previewed it!

Something to say about this? Scroll down for reader comments

Since before the EU Referendum, Brexit Facts4EU.Org
has been the most prolific researcher and publisher of Brexit facts in the world.

Supported by MPs, MEPs, & other groups, our work has impact.

We think facts matter. Please donate today, so that we can continue to ensure a clean Brexit is finally delivered.

Any credit card user

Quick One-off

From £5 - £1,000

Monthly

From £3 per month

Paypal Users Only - Choose amount first

Quick One-off

Monthly

PLEASE NOTE IF YOU WOULD LIKE TO COMMENT : You can write your comment under any existing comments below. After you have clicked to preview your comment, you MUST then click on the CAPTCHA system and send you comment, for it to be published. Thank you!

Reader Comments 15

1. Ashley Great Britain , Wednesday, September 04, 2024, 06:20:

Our Eu membership was forced on us through the back door by deceptive manipulative political figures. The EU only ever hoped to gain from the uk in a one sided manner, And uk individuals and the establishment allowed it.There is no doubt that the EU has hindered the UK for decades.
-
Keir starmer is treading on thin ice. Its clear he thinks everyone's forgotten about Brexit and doesn't care.
The labour party will be ruthless in enacting their long held goals.
They are demonstrating this on a daily basis.
-
After the UK making some gains on the Brexit front as an independent union (minus Northern Ireland) Labour are on the cusp of shattering it.
CPTPP can't be stopped now (although labour would want that) and the UK must go full steam ahead at it.

2. Sparky , Wednesday, September 04, 2024, 07:12:

UK services exports have grown 9 times faster than goods exports since 2010. The growth in services has nothing to do with Brexit. There was a significant dip in services exports around the pandemic which has now recovered and on the same trajectory as it was pre pandemic. The bounce bask from the dip during the pandemic is the significant growth reflected in the post.
.
Goods exports is a weakness in our economy, exacerbated by Brexit. Goods exports have been in decline since the 80's with the growth of China and the far east cheap manufacturing, automation and the decline of the UK heavy industries.

3. Old Albion , Wednesday, September 04, 2024, 07:29:

'Sparky' you forgot to mention our economy and industrial base being wrecked by the imposition of loony net zero policies and the madly expensive energy costs that have resulted from it.
Admittedly the previous government are to blame for all of that. But Two-tier Kier and the Starmer stasi will not just continue with it all, they will worsen it.
By the way, if the (laughingly named) UK ever hits net zero! That will save <1% of global Co2 emissions. Which of course will be taken up by China and others.
The whole thing is so stupid, we should all be laughing, but we ain't ........

4. terence patrick hewett , Wednesday, September 04, 2024, 08:55:

The barmy Labour Party are committing suicide at a rate of knots: Labour Party supporters are about to find out how bad the 1970's were. Only Reform UK will reverse descent into hell.

5. NH , Wednesday, September 04, 2024, 09:26:

2. Sparky
You have completely missed the point of the Facts4EU report !
.
This report is about the growing deficit the UK has with the EU. The deficit is wealth destroying for the UK and completely unsustainable. The UK is different from all other EU economies because we have a larger amount of exports to the rest of the world than to the EU and because we are a service based economy. Hence we have to be able to make our own trade deals with the rest of the world and not have these grossly restricted by the EU. The EU wanted to protect the UK market from external competition to maintain it's own high margins !
.
Since the Brexit vote UK exports have increased by approx. 50% and since we left the EU in 2021 they have increased by approx. 28%. Of course service exports have been growing as we have become more of a service based economy. Now we are making more trade deals, although they are taking a long time to be implemented, this will grow further.
.
If you want to say something sensible why don't you explain why you believe a constantly growing deficit with the EU would be sustainable if we were still a member of the EU ? The only reason it's presently sustainable is we have a surplus with the rest of the world and this trade is more profitable than EU Trade.

6. LuxuryBalloon , Wednesday, September 04, 2024, 13:08:

In 2023, the EU accounted for 42% of the UK’s exports (49% of goods exports and 36% of services exports). This share has been broadly stable over the last few years. In 2023, goods exports to the EU were 11% below their 2019 level in real terms. Good exports to non-EU countries in 2023 were also 11% below their 2019 level in real terms. In 2023, UK exports of services to the EU were 9% above their 2019 level in real terms. Exports to non-EU countries were 15% above their 2019 level. (Source: House of Commons library).
If you had hoped that Brexit would have helped our manufacturing, that hope seems to be squashed. The CPTPP might just shift some of goods trade deficit with the EU to a goods trade deficit with the CPTPP countries. It is our London-based financial service industry that is thriving … and the CPTPP does not deal with services.

7. Ashley Great Britain , Wednesday, September 04, 2024, 13:17:

6 luxury balloon.
-
The CPTPP does deal with services!

8. Sparky , Wednesday, September 04, 2024, 14:04:

3 OA. No boats missed at all. JR refers to the UK services trade being held back by the EU, this is not the case, services trade has been growing since 2010. Since leaving the EU the UK trade deficit in goods has grown because Brexit has made it more difficult to export to the EU.
.
Also mentioned in this piece is that the EU prevented the UK from opening trade deals talks after the referendum. This is not true. It is the terms of article 50, written by a British diplomat, Lord Kerr that prevented negotiations before triggering article 50.
.
The deficit is with the world not just the EU. Brexit has made the deficit worse. Luckily there has been a growth in services across the world which has offset the week goods.

9. terence patrick hewett , Wednesday, September 04, 2024, 14:18:

Astonishing that LB doesn't realise that the CPTPP encompasses services. For the UK, it is one of its major attractions. LB's other detractions concerning the CPTPP are similarly erroneous. This really is basic stuff.

10. NH , Wednesday, September 04, 2024, 14:47:

6. LB
You seem to have made a lot of assumptions in your analysis. All economies were effected by the pandemic and the shortages and inflation created by the Russian invasion so using this period without international comparisons is often misleading. I will point out the following:
.
During the period the UK moved from being the worlds 7th largest exporter to the worlds 4th largest exporter.
During the period the UK moved up to become the world's 2nd largest exporter of services.
You seem to have used UK CPI inflation as "real terms", in the short term this is usually nothing like export inflation which is usually much lower.
When we left the EU they reclassified many of the UK exports to the EU as "non UK" because of EU "Rules of origin". This reduced official exports to the EU but it had little or no effect on UK companies.
Brexit is not just about improving trade deals with the CPTPP it's about improving trade deals with the World.
Trade deals are not just about improving exports they also improve imports which is important for prices. Many manufactures already import "partially manufactured goods" from CPTPP countries.
Services include a whole range of items, Financial Services are a relatively small part of this.
UK Financial Services are not just "London-Based."
As stated above (7. Ashley) the CPTPP does includes services in it's trade deals.
We have a large surplus with non EU trade and most of it is "high margin" unlike much of the goods trade.

15 comments, page 1 of 2

Add comment:

Please note: Your email address is never published unless you choose to enter it.