Size of UK’s new trading bloc set to grow 22 times faster than EU’s ‘Single Market’

Brexit Britain’s biggest-ever free trade deal – What’s the truth about how big the CPTPP is?

Montage © Facts4EU.Org 2024

The Facts4EU.Org think-tank explodes the anti-Brexit propaganda about the CPTPP and analyses the official facts

Since we broke the pivotal story two weeks ago about the UK’s biggest-ever free trade deal with one of the world’s largest trading blocs – ahead of all UK newspapers and TV channels, and after we shared this with GB News – a concerted campaign seems to have immediately started, to discredit this excellent news for Brexit Britain.

In our report we brought readers the news from Lima that the Peruvian government had ratified the accession of the United Kingdom to membership of the CPTPP world trading bloc. Peru increased the tally of existing members approving the UK’s accession to the magical number of six, representing a majority of the 11 CPTPP members. This was a crucial event, as it guaranteed the UK’s CPTPP accession in December this year.

A major Brexit Facts4EU.Org series
on Brexit Britain's biggest ever free trade deal

PART I - With the UK, this bloc will contain 590 million consumers – 31.3% more than the EU
PART II - The 5 major benefits of the CPTPP deal, to correct Whitehall and Rejoiner hostility and ignorance
PART III (this report) - Size of UK’s new trading bloc set to grow 22 times faster than EU’s ‘Single Market’
PART IV - Some ‘home truths’ about our great, global trading nation from someone who should know

News blackout

There then followed what can only be described as a ‘conspiracy of silence’. The new Labour Government simply sat on the information for eight days.

Facts4EU.Org had already acted two days after the news from Peru by providing Part I in this CPTPP series to GB News, who ran it on Tuesday 27 Aug. With the cat out of the bag No.10 issued their uninspiring news release on the Thursday – over one week after the Government’s UK Ambassador to Peru attended a ceremony with the Peruvian government minister to celebrate.

Credit: Peruvian government 2024 - click to enlarge

In today’s report we once again turn to the official facts and figures, in order to stifle the misinformation and disinformation being propagated and so that the public are in full possession of the facts, as opposed to wild statements with no basis in fact.

The CPTPP 12 versus the EU27 – relative economic sizes

We look first at GDP. Just how big are the economies of the CPTPP and the EU? Many numbers have circulated on this subject in different documents over the past couple of years and some differ considerably.

Below we present reliable, consistent, and timely data from the World Bank, all in the same currency : US Dollars. We have also looked at the size of the CPTPP when the UK accedes in December, and then what it might become if all those applying for membership do actually join. We have excluded China on the basis we believe it will be blocked and because it would have such a profound effect on the figures for what is highly unlikely to happen.

What you are about to read shows you:-

Just how close the CPTPP is to the EU in economic size
How the CPTPP’s total economic size is increasing faster than that of the EU
How much larger the CPTPP is in terms of its hundreds of millions of consumers
How the UK’s accession makes it bigger still
And finally, how much larger than the EU the CPTPP will be, as other new members sign up

Brexit Facts4EU.Org Summary

THE POSITION WHEN THE UK JOINS THE CPTPP IN DECEMBER

Total GDP – The CPTPP 12 versus the EU27

CPTPP TOTAL : $14,468,417,503,769.3 (including the UK from 15 Dec 2024)
EU TOTAL : $15,355,286,193,298.1

In simpler, round terms, CPTPP : $14.5 trillion, EU : $15.4 trillion.

[Source : Latest official World Bank data, last updated 26 Apr 2024.]

Unfortunately for the EU, the CPTPP’s growth doesn’t stop with the UK joining

When it comes to the size of the two trading blocs the trend is definitely not the EU’s friend. This hits the EU in several ways, as we show below. Not only has the EU lost the UK, but the CPTPP has gained it. A major difference between the two trading blocs is of course that the CPTPP has no desire to become a superstate, unlike the EU.

We then go on to consider the other key difference between the EU and the CPTPP. The CPTPP is growing. Naturally the accession of the UK makes a big difference, as the UK is the sixth-largest economy in the world. In addition, however, there are other countries waiting in the wings, some of quite reasonable size. We will compare and contrast the growth potential of the CPTPP with the growth potential of the EU.

Brexit Facts4EU.Org Summary

1. How the CPTPP is in the ascendant, compared to the EU

[Source : Latest official World Bank data, last updated 26 Apr 2024 | IMF | US Congress.]

1.1 GDP now, and including the UK from December

Currently : $11,255.6 bn
Increase in CPTPP GDP this December with the UK : $3,212.8 bn
This will make the new total : $14,468.4 bn

1.2 GDP with the 5 extra candidate countries

In December (incl UK) : $14,468.4 bn
Increase in CPTPP GDP with the 5 new candidate countries : $3,559.0 bn
This would make the new total : $18,027.4 bn

See section 3 to compare with the EU.

So, with the prospective new members who have applied or who have said they will apply for CPTPP membership this year, the total GDP would be $18.0 trillion ($18,027,439,355,850.6m). This is comfortably larger than the EU by more than $2.5 trillion. (Note: We have excluded China as it is almost certain they would be blocked by other members.)

Brexit Facts4EU.Org Summary

2. Size of CPTPP market – number of consumers

In Part I of this series we already showed how the CPTPP with the UK’s participation will have a population of 590 million – 140 million more than the EU. Even prior to the UK’s accession, the CPTPP had millions more people (and consumers) than the EU. Below we show the detail of this, and the population effect of the UK’s accession, as well as the effect of five more candidate countries lining up to join after the UK.

2.1 No. of consumers, including the UK from December

Currently : 522.0m
Increase in CPTPP population this December with the UK : 67.6m
This will make the new total : 589.6m
That’s 31% more consumers than the EU

2. No. of consumers, with the other CPTPP candidate countries

In December (incl UK) : 589.6m
Increase in CPTPP population with the 5 new candidate countries : 469.3m
This would make the new total : 1,058.9m

[Sources : UN Population Division and national official estimates | EU Commission for the EU27.]

FINALLY

What would be the result if the EU’s 5 candidate countries all joined the EU, compared to the result if the CPTPP’s 5 candidate countries joined the CPTPP?

Brexit Facts4EU.Org Summary

3. Growth potential – the EU compared to the CPTPP

What would be the result if the EU’s 6 candidate countries all joined the EU, compared to the result if the CPTPP’s 5 candidate countries joined the CPTPP?

EU - countries in active negotiations : Montenegro (since 2012), Serbia (since 2014), Albania (since 2020), North Macedonia (since 2020), Moldova and Ukraine (since 2024). These negotiations typically take more than 10 years and generally much longer. In Montenegro’s case (the most advanced) it has taken 12 years so far, and is expected to take a further four years, making a total of 16 years.

CPTPP – countries who have signed or who are expected to sign this year : South Korea, Indonesia, Philippines, Ecuador, Costa Rica

3.1 Extra GDP of EU’s six candidate countries : $156.5 bn
3.2 Extra GDP of CPTPP’s five candidate countries : $3,559.0 bn

If all EU candidate countries join, the EU’s GDP will increase by only 1.0%
If all CPTPP candidate countries join, the CPTPP’s GDP will increase by 24.6%

The CPTPP’s GDP growth potential (from new members joining) is over 22 TIMES that of the EU.

The CPTPP and the United Kingdom are in the ascendant. The EU’s stars are waning.

Observations

NOTICE : Facts4EU has now scaled back to publishing 5 days-a-week

For over eight years we have worked seven days-a-week. As far as we are aware we are the only organisation of our type to have done this. We are grateful to those of our readers who have made donations but sadly the level of our funding is now such that we must make it stretch for as long as we can. This means team members taking other paid work and reducing our output to five days-a-week.

Please, please help us to carry on our vital work in defence of independence, sovereignty, democracy and freedom by donating today. Thank you.

[ Sources: See report ] Politicians and journalists can contact us for details, as ever.

Brexit Facts4EU.Org, Mon 09 Sept 2024

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Reader Comments 3

1. Parky , Monday, September 09, 2024, 13:39:

"the vast majority of EU member states see the Indo-Pacific as a place of huge and unparalleled economic opportunity"
From a European Council on Foreign Relations article in December 2021 titled:
European trade and strategy in the Indo-Pacific: Why the EU should join the CPTPP
It goes on to explain how it is unlikely because of "public opinion", it doesn't mention how it is almost impossible to do a decent trade deal with the EU without handing over political and legal control of your country.
Just thought I would share in anticipation of the usual unsubstantiated propaganda about it being worthless.

2. John Jones , Monday, September 09, 2024, 15:40:

In general a good analysis of what CPTPP is & importantly could do for the UK.
The real challenge is making the construct work for all parties - this really is about the basic supply and demand including need for goods and services for all parties.
In reality in the EU the UK really only does serious business with about 6 countries - Germany, Belgium, NL, France, Ireland & Spain - this equates in reality to c. just over 220m people - the rest is frankly peanuts.
The UK is very much a services led economy by c 70% -the success of CPTPP will likely be services driven - moreover, the UK per the EU will likely only trade with the 5 richest nations in the bloc.
The big question & key determinant of success will be - what will the UK import/export to get the best economic growth out of the CPTPP agreement - until we arrive at an answer to this ( including what CPTPP get from the deal) - all bets are risky.

3. Parky , Monday, September 09, 2024, 19:01:

I came across an article about a UK cheese producer about a year ago, complaining about not being able to piggy back on the EU's Canada cheese quota any more, which effectively closed a market to them.
This from the UK government website:
The UK has secured access to various CPTPP tariff rate quotas (TRQs) which will provide improved access to CPTPP markets for UK exporters, including dairy with Canada, Japan, and Mexico.
A relatively small example, but undeniably positive.

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