Brexit Facts4EU.Org Summary

Key topics and extracts

“We speak for millions”

Despite standing down at the next general election, Sir John remains as energetic and ebullient as ever. He recognises that :

“There are battles to win for democracy, for freedom, for free enterprise, for greater prosperity and the forces against us are mighty, the Establishment is not very helpful and so I’m grateful to you guys for fighting the fight with me.”

“You must be cutting taxes not raising taxes”

Sir John then provides the historic context within which the economic reforms of the 1980’s took place.

“It reinforced the general message that free enterprise works”

“Wherever we turned an industry away from monopoly public provision and got it opened up to competition and free enterprise capital it expanded, it grew, it improved, it innovated, it created extra jobs.”

“We need to make the case anew for free enterprise, competition and choice.”

In re-making the case for privatisation Sir John highlights the appalling state of those industries still under monopoly control.

On the Post Office

“Awful spectacle”

Recent examples include the appalling behaviour of the Post Office – a nationalised monopoly. Those in charge of the business not only secured themselves hefty bonuses but managed to lose £14 hundred million in their trading activities.

On the Bank of England

“A runaway outrage”

The Bank of England has just sent an invoice for £49bn which taxpayers have had to pay for its massive bond losses and according to recent estimates, there could be an additional £170bn to come, again all to be paid for by the taxpayer.

On the Railways

“Unaffordable and unreasonable”

The main network was re-nationalised under the Blair government after a successful decade under private ownership. The main re-nationalisation has cost taxpayers in the last year - capital and revenue losses combined – £33bn.

On the parallels down under

Much of what Sir John outlines has a resonance in Australia, according to Steven Tripp. By way of example, Steven describes the privatisation of the telecoms industry under John Howard’s government in the late 1990’s which was part of a wider programme to pay down the debt they had inherited from Paul Keating’s government.

On Central Banks

“Hooked on idea of continuous intervention”

Instead of withdrawing their massive financial Covid intervention promptly, they then doubled down by intervening in the energy market following the invasion of Ukraine which meant that

“Before you knew where you were, these developed countries were taking on extremely large debts.”

“Forecasting models that patently don’t work”

As we know, inflation peaked at 11% as a result of Covid intervention as well as the consequences from the war in Ukraine. The BoE excused themselves by stating that the war in Ukraine had upset their modelling. But as Sir John points out, inflation had already risen from 2% to 6% before Putin even began the invasion of Ukraine.

On reducing state debt

“The best way to get state debt down in relation the wealth and economic health of the country is of course economic growth.”

Many governments are pursuing policies which will achieve the opposite, by imposing higher taxes, or creating wild credit swings due to unreliable central banking or unreliable fiscal policy.

On merits of lower taxation

Sir John endorses the Laffer principle of lowering taxes as the best way to generate higher revenues. The UK has direct experience of this with the brain drain which occurred in the 1970s. As soon as marginal rates were lowered people started returning to the country and investing in Britain again.

On Capital Gains Tax

Sir John argues that if the rate of CGT is too high it will freeze the sale of assets because only an outstanding return on sale will make it worthwhile. The long-term result of higher CGT will simply be lower economic growth.

On Immigration

“I don’t think it’s a win to increase your GDP by less than you’ve increased the population”

Free movement from Europe has been reduced as a result of Brexit. At the same time, non-EU migration has exploded. Our current economic model which relies on cheap labour doing low-status jobs is precisely the wrong one, says Sir John.

“The best technology now transforms the situation and doesn’t need the same armies of underpaid labour.”

We need to move to a high wage, high productivity economy. With AI and the digital revolution, the automation will be doing much of the low-grade work, freeing up people to take up more remunerative roles. Innovation in agriculture in the growth of crops is already taking place which will make it easier for machine picking rather than relying on cheap labour.

On trade with the world post-Brexit

“Teeming with opportunity”

Remainers said the existing trade deals with the EU could not be rolled over. They were, and now we have trade deals around the world especially the CPTPP.

He expresses great regret at the way in which the UK treated Australia, New Zealand, and Canada after joining the EEC. He believes there is a great opportunity to right those wrongs, and develop our trading links with our Commonwealth partners in the years ahead.

On rebuilding relations with the Commonwealth

“A beacon of democracy and freer trade”

That broader alliance looks set to become even more important in the years ahead from a geo-strategic perspective. Now that we are trading partners in the CPTPP, we have a particular interest in securing trade routes in and around the South China Sea.

On Brexit Benefits

“Be of good cheer”

Sir John was at pains to point out that since leaving the EU, the UK has secured some important wins. We do have the constitutional right to make the changes we want.

The UK has secured important trade deals (particularly in relation to services) and the country has avoided a huge financial liability now facing member states as the EU embarks on an enormous debt-raising campaign. He also references a further 7,000 laws avoided since leaving the EU.

On Northern Ireland Sir John remains critical of the Windsor Framework which traps NI within the ambit of EU law.

On the wider political landscape Steven Tripp drew attention to one of Sir John’s books – ‘We don’t believe you – why populists reject the Establishment’.

As ever Sir John is ahead of the curve in identifying the discontent so many feel towards the establishment parties which purport to represent them. He highlights the reasons behind Donald Trump’s appeal among millions who don’t feel the international trade order was providing them with a good deal because it allowed China to take their jobs away from them.

On Net Zero

“This can only go at the pace the public wants it to go at”

Governments are in the process of trying to force us into buying electric cars, heat pumps and adopt smart meters when it makes no practical sense to do so at the present time. They are in a hurry to deliver net zero by any means possible and spending huge sums introducing regulations to that effect which have to be borne by the ordinary taxpayer.