EU’s biggest cash cow is in trouble, according to latest estimates

No.1 EU economy “is in poor health,” say Germany’s 5 financial institutes

Montage © Facts4EU.Org 2024

Facts4EU.Org reviews the latest forecast from the German Joint Economic Forecast group

On Wednesday (27 Mar 2024) the news out of Germany was not good. Their Joint Economic Forecast project group presented its updated analysis of of the German economy, which it prepared on behalf of the Federal Ministry for ‘Economic Affairs and Climate Protection’.

Germany accounts for approximately 30% of the total GDP of all the 27 EU member countries. In simple terms, if its economy sneezes the others catch the ‘flu.

This matters for the EU as a whole

Germany is by far the largest funder of the EU budget. When the United Kingdom was still a member, Germany and the UK were the principal transferors of wealth to the many smaller EU countries. With the UK now gone, a much greater responsibility has fallen to Germany.

The state of the German economy therefore matters greatly. With it turning down, the EU as a whole has a reason to worry.

Brexit Facts4EU.Org Summary

Germany's doldrums

1. Germany’s GDP (with new forecast for 2024)

  • 2021 : 3.2%
  • 2022 : 1.8%
  • 2023 : -0.3%
  • 2024 : 0.1%

Brexit Britain’s GDP growth rate in 2023 was 0.1% compared to Germany's loss of -0.3%.

[Source : Gemeinschaftsdiagnose and UK ONS]

© Brexit Facts4EU.Org 2024 - click to enlarge

The official forecasts from Germany have now cut its economic growth forecast for this year by more than 90%. Brexit Britain’s performance has exceeded this.

When it comes to unemployment the situation is no better.

Brexit Facts4EU.Org Summary

Germany's doldrums

2. Germany’s unemployment (with new forecast for 2024)

  • 2021 : 5.7%
  • 2022 : 5.3%
  • 2023 : 5.7%
  • 2024 : 5.8%

Brexit Britain’s unemployment rate is currently only 3.8%.

[Source : Gemeinschaftsdiagnose and UK ONS]

© Brexit Facts4EU.Org 2024 - click to enlarge

About the “Gemeinschaftsdiagnose” group – the Joint Economic Forecast group

This is an independent group of five of Germany's economic institutes commissioned by the German Ministry for ‘Economic Affairs and Climate Action’ to produce economic forecasts every half year, in spring and autumn.

The five institutes are

  • The German Institute for Economic Research
  • The ifo Institute for Economic Research
  • The Kiel Institute for the World Economy
  • The Halle Institute for Economic Research
  • RWI Leibniz Institute for Economic Research

According to their report issued on Wednesday, German economic activity is currently running barely above pre-pandemic level. Productivity in Germany is treading water. Whether for exports or the domestic economy, there have been more headwinds than tailwinds.

Private consumption has picked up later and less strongly than they previously expected. Despite growing global economic activity, German exports have fallen, in particular because demand for the capital and intermediate goods so important for Germany has been weak and price competitiveness for energy-intensive goods has suffered.

Continuing uncertainty over economic policy continues to weigh on corporate investment, which is likely to be at around its 2017 level.

German Chambers of Commerce of Industry

The German Chambers of Commerce of Industry highlighted the need for urgent action in the face of this forecast of nigh-on zero growth for 2024.

The CEO of the German Chambers of Commerce and Industry, Martin Wansleben, had this to say about the forecasts:

“Business sentiment is still poor. And there are reasons for that: Energy costs are still significantly higher than in other industrial countries. Add to that, a big bureaucracy burden, worsening skills shortages and geopolitical uncertainties, which are weighing on exports.”

Mr. Wansleben stressed that businesses need a clear positive signal.

“The conditions for doing business in Germany urgently need to be improved. That is the only way that the private investment that is needed can be stimulated.”


The reason we publish information like this is because the BBC won’t. They prefer to publish anything negative about the UK that they can find. This does the country no service at all.

We are not suggesting that the BBC should act as a propaganda service for the UK, in the way the EU Commission does for its empire. We are merely suggesting that they they present a balanced output and give their audience a sense of perspective within Europe and within the world as a whole.

We must get reports like this out there

Reports like the one above take far longer to research, write and produce than many people realise. If they were easy, readers would see other organisations also producing these daily. However, there’s little point in the Facts4EU.Org team working long hours, seven days-a-week, if we lack the resources to promote them effectively – to the public, to MPs, and to the media. This is where you come in, dear reader.

Facts4EU.Org needs you today

We are a 'not for profit' team (we make a loss) and any payment goes towards the actual work, not plush London offices, lunch or taxi expenses, or other luxuries of some organisations.

We badly need more of our thousands of readers to become members, to support this work. Could this be you, today? It's quick and easy, we give you a choice of two highly secure payment providers, and we do NOT ask you for further support if you pay once. We just hope you keep supporting us. Your membership stays anonymous unless you tell us otherwise.

Please don't assume that other people will keep us going - we don't receive enough to survive and we need your help today. Could you help us? We rely 100% on public contributions from readers like you.

If you believe in a fully-free, independent, and sovereign United Kingdom, please join now by clicking on one of the links below or you can use our Support page here. You will receive a personal, friendly ‘thank you’ from a member of our team within 48 hours. Thank you.

[ Sources: Gemeinschaftsdiagnose group | UK's ONS ] Politicians and journalists can contact us for details, as ever.

Brexit Facts4EU.Org, Sat 30 Mar 2024

Click here to go to our news headlines

Please scroll down to COMMENT on the above article.
And don't forget actually to post your message after you have previewed it!

Share this article on

Something to say about this? Scroll down for reader comments

Since before the EU Referendum, Brexit Facts4EU.Org
has been the most prolific researcher and publisher of Brexit facts in the world.

Supported by MPs, MEPs, & other groups, our work has impact.

We think facts matter. Please donate today, so that we can continue to ensure a clean Brexit is finally delivered.

Any credit card user

Quick One-off


From £5 - £1,000



From £3 per month

Paypal Users Only - Choose amount first

Quick One-off