Can Farage pull off another upset with his Reform UK Party in the general election?

At the last EU elections Nigel Farage’s Brexit Party easily beat all of Europe

Montage © Facts4EU.Org 2024

In the UK he also trounced the Conservatives, Labour, and the LibDems

In May 2019 Nigel Farage changed the landscape for all the other parties in the EU and easily won the most seats in the EU Parliament, beating German Chancellor Angela Merkel’s CDU party and decimating the UK’s Conservative and Labour parties.

Today, the electorates of the EU27 are still voting for their MEPs in the EU Parliament. As we await the 2024 results tomorrow morning, (Mon 10 Jun), Facts4EU.Org looks back to Mr Farage’s resounding victory in 2019 and asks whether there are any parallels with what might happen at the UK general election on 04 July.

Brexit Facts4EU.Org Summary

Nigel Farage’s stunning victory in the EU Parliamentary elections 2019

1. The victory in the UK

Brexit Party : 29
LibDems : 16
Labour : 10
Greens : 7
Conservative : 4
SNP : 3
Plaid Cymru : 1
DUP : 1
Alliance (N.I.) : 1
Sinn Fein (N.I.) : 1

[Source : EU Parliament.]

If “a week is a long time in politics” then five years is a lifetime, but can lessons be learnt?

The scale of Nigel Farage’s Brexit Party victory five years ago in the EU parliamentary elections can easily be forgotten, as the UK left the EU the following year. Nevertheless it is worth looking back at the devastation he wreaked on both the Conservatives and Labour at that nationwide election.

The Brexit Party took seats from both of the UK’s two main political parties. The Conservatives lost 15 seats and Labour lost 10. It should also be pointed out that the UK’s most ardent pro-Remain party, the LibDems, gained 15 seats. Nevertheless Mr Farage’s party was the clear and outright winner in the United Kingdom, coming from nowhere to win 29 seats.

The magnitude of this victory is perhaps a salutary lesson for the UK’s main political parties in the lead-up to the UK’s 2024 general election on 04 July.

EXCLUSIVE : Deputy Leader of Reform UK and former Brexit Party MEP Ben Habib, commenting on our report

“Reform UK has been building and building over the last year. Polling 5% in October 2023, it is now at 18% and neck and neck with the Tories.
“When I joined Reform I said I wanted to obliterate the Tory Parliamentary Party. It failed to deliver to Brexit and left Northern Ireland under the boot of the EU. Well, that step has been achieved.
“Reform must now take seats and become a serious Parliamentary Party. We must save our country from the multiple existential threats posed to it by successive Tory and Labour governments.
“Certainly, I will not leave the fray until that mission is accomplished.”
- Deputy Leader of Reform UK, Ben Habib, 09 Jun 2024

Brexit Facts4EU.Org Summary

Nigel Farage’s stunning victory over Europe in the EU Parliament elections 2019

2. The victory in the EU

UK Brexit Party : 29
CDU (Merkel) : 23
LREM (Macron) : 21

[Source : EU Parliament.]

As can be seen above, Nigel Farage’s Brexit Party was the clear winner in the last EU Parliamentary elections. He beat all UK parties as well as all EU parties, to gain the maximum number of seats of any single political party in Europe.

Observations

Firstly, and for the benefit of new readers, Facts4EU.Org remains non-partisan and welcomes views from all political persuasions.

Tomorrow we will know just how far the EU has shifted to the Right

Whether the movements will be on the scale Mr Farage and his Brexit Party achieved in 2019 is something we doubt. Nevertheless we expect a tectonic shift in the voting in many EU countries which will have ramifications in the bloc for the rest of this year and for years to come. Some of these will undoubtedly affect the UK.

When it comes to the United Kingdom and the general election in just over three weeks’ time, Mr Farage’s Reform UK party is already climbing in the latest opinion polls. Given his success five years ago in the EU parliamentary elections, it is possible that he might well pull off a surprise.

And finally, as it's a Sunday...

As regular readers know, on Sundays we give our readership some music which has some resonance with our report. Today we present Billy Joel. This song is a classic. It might not at first seem to have any relevance, but it's about ordinary people and their struggles.

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[ Sources: EU Parliament | Reform UK ] Politicians and journalists can contact us for details, as ever.

Brexit Facts4EU.Org, Sun 09 Jun 2024

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Reader Comments 18

11. Diane , Sunday, June 09, 2024, 12:15:

So nobody cares about the Brits and Brexit in the EU any more. Apparently. The French PM though appears to feel that we / it may have some influence on their own & as recently reported, tells the people "Don't be like the British who cried after Brexit" ! whilst the President says " Come on, go vote on June 9, it is very important. I say this because I always think back to our British friends who did not go to vote on Brexit day. Not going to vote is leaving the future of our continent and our country to others" (D.Expr) - also pointing out that the UK, yes, the UK, has "massive economic problems". And they, and the rest, don't ? The arrant arrogance continues.

12. NH , Sunday, June 09, 2024, 12:46:

2. LB, "Many Conservatives, and all of Labour and the LibDems have seen Brexit as a damage-limitation exercise"
So you agree that politicians have refused to comply with the result of a democratic referendum despite agreeing to the referendum in parliament and the House of Lords.
.
2. LB, "ReformUK is claiming that Brexit has been a failure"
Reform say the Government has failed to take full advantage of Brexit which is very different.
.
2. LB, ECHR
The ECHR is an undemocratic court that does not answer to anybody. The present electorate have never agreed to this. Reform is a democratic party.
.
2. LB, BOE, OBR
THE BOE and the OBR both have a clear remit. If they can not achieve this with reasonable accuracy there should be changes. Why would any sensible responsible person support incompetent government individuals.
.
2. LB, BBC
The BBC should be on a level playing field with other media and news channels. The present funding and legal arrangement give them a huge advantage over other channels to promote their own views. Where does your claim that Reform wants to abolish the BBC come from ?
.
2. LB, Windsor Agreement
This is not part of Brexit, we certainly did not vote for it.
.
2. LB, Illegal Immigration
Reform have clearly stated plans on how this should be stopped. Only parties do not seem to have a plan.
.
2. LB, Labour Party
The labour Party have repeatedly stated that they have no plans to rejoin the European Union. The Labour Party's plan for "rebuilding relations with the EU" do not include rejoining the single market or the customs union so obviously they do not see "rejoining the EU" as an election winning policy.
.
Labour's lead in the election polls is mostly due to the fact that so many people don't want any of the present parties. If elected Labour will have no money, if they adopt policies which inhibit economic growth they will have very short political careers.

13. NH , Sunday, June 09, 2024, 13:12:

4. 7. Sparky, Andy Burnham, The Guardian
Quoting remainers as usual. Where's your facts, oh, I forgot, remainers don't do facts !
.
6. Sparky, "OBR Forecasts"
The only OBR reports that have been correct are their accuracy reports ! In the latest one they state:
.
"another year of very large differences between our central forecasts and outruns"

14. LuxuryBalloon , Sunday, June 09, 2024, 13:22:

12 NH ‘politicians have refused to comply with the result of a democratic referendum’ … I don’t agree with that statement. Our politicians triggered Article 50 … as a result of the democratic referendum. That our politicians have viewed Brexit as a damage-limitation exercise is not factually in contradiction with the referendum … although I appreciate that your vision of Brexit was not shared by Boris and the other members of his government.
I would welcome a referendum on leaving the ECHR, giving us a democratic vote on this matter. I would welcome ReformUK’s support for a referendum … but so far I have not heard anything regarding an ECHR referendum from this democratic party.
I am under no illusion that when Labour claims ‘to make Brexit work’ it means they want to take the Conservative Party’s damage-limitation exercise for Brexit a few steps further. In addition, Labour will not actively seek opportunities coming from Brexit as Jacob Rees-Mogg did when he was minister of state for Brexit Opportunities.

15. NH , Sunday, June 09, 2024, 13:53:

14. LB, "your vision of Brexit was not shared by Boris and the other members of his government."
The "surrender Legislation" completely prohibited a sensible negotiation, Boris did not agree with this it came from remainers in parliament. What is unclear about withdrawing from the EU to be a sovereign independent country, the same as they vast majority of countries in the world, which the EU trades with in a normal manner.
.
14. LB, "referendum on leaving the ECHR"
They correct process is we should have had a referendum before agreeing to be ruled by the ECHR. Democracy is the default position not one we should have to request ! Leaving the ECHR is in the Reform Party's manifesto.
.
14. LB, "Labour will not actively seek opportunities coming from Brexit"
You may be right but the simple fact is, if elected, they will have no money and plenty of supporters who are demanding more money (e.g. Unions, Public Sector, Benefit Claimants, The EU). As I have stated if they refuse opportunities that will create economic growth they will not be in power for long.

16. LuxuryBalloon , Sunday, June 09, 2024, 16:42:

15 NH
‘The correct process is we should have had a referendum before agreeing to be ruled by the ECHR’ … we joined the ECHR in 1951 … that means you would have to be at least 91 today to have been allowed to vote in a referendum. Our first referendum was in 1973? And your argument is that we should not have a referendum now as we did not had one in1951?
Sounds illogical to me.
‘Boris did not agree with this’ … By late 2020, Boris had outsmarted the surrender legislation you refer to. He had manoeuvred the Brexit negotiations such that both the EU and UK agreed that no more extensions to negations would be given beyond 31 Dec 2020. Boris could have gone for a No Deal Brexit on 1st Jan 2021. He did not. (Even though he told the country to prepare for a No Deal Brexit in Nov 2020). Instead he agreed his deal with the EU on 24 Dec 2020. Boris could have triggered article 16 of NI protocol bill from Aug 2021 onwards. He did not. Boris was determined to get a deal with the EU as he saw Brexit as a damage-limitation exercise. And listening to Nigel Farage I have the impression he agrees with me on that one.

17. Adam Hiley , Sunday, June 09, 2024, 17:44:

I am not a fan of Boris Johnson the Conservative Party has only itself to blame for failing to keep to it's 2019 manifesto and removing a leader who gave them one of their biggest election victories since Mrs Thatcher by installing a charisma less unwanted leader like Sunak the UK deserves better than Keir Starmer

18. terence patrick hewett , Sunday, June 09, 2024, 21:06:

The news from the EU elections just gets increasingly worse for rejoiniacs: the Kermit government has fallen. In the rejoiniac bunker, they know that there will be no rescue: for them the long protracted destruction of their hopes has started.

18 comments, page 2 of 2

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