When the UK was a member, the EU artificially reduced the number of Brexit Party seats

PLUS : Good news for Nigel Farage’s Reform UK, as the Dutch surge Right in EU elections

Montage © Facts4EU.Org 2024

Exit poll shows Geert Wilders’ PVV will be largest single Dutch party in EU Parliament

Fresh from his triumphant performance in last night’s BBC debate, Nigel Farage will be viewing the early indications from the EU parliamentary elections with interest.

Yesterday the Dutch voted. Whilst the official results will not be announced until tomorrow - after all the EU countries have voted - Facts4EU.Org brings readers the results of last night’s exit poll by Ipsos I&O. These show that Geert Wilders’ right-wing PVV looks set to leap from zero seats in 2019 to seven seats in the new EU Parliament.

This follows on from Mr Wilders’ victory in the Dutch general election last year and demonstrates how voters on the continent have rapidly been shifting Right in their political thinking. His PVV seems likely to be the largest single Dutch party in the EU Parliament. He may just be pipped to the post in overall numbers by another grouping, but this consists of a coalition of two Dutch parties – the socialist PvdA and the GL (Greens).

When the UK was a member, the EU artificially reduced the number of Nigel Farage’s seats

The number of MEPs elected from each EU country is agreed before each election and is based on an EU principle of something known as 'degressive proportionality'. This means each MEP from a small country represents fewer people than an MEP from a larger country.

In effect this meant that a vote in a tiny country such as Malta was worth far more than in a large country such as United Kingdom.

- Credit : BBC / YouTube 07 Jun 2024, Nigel Farage

Despite this, Nigel Farage beat the whole of the EU27

In 2019, Nigel Farage’s Brexit Party won 29 seats. This was the highest number of seats of any national political party in the EU Parliament. The German CDU/CSU also won 29 seats but this was as an alliance, or ‘coalition’.

Brexit Facts4EU.Org Summary

The number of MEPs to be elected in each country in the 2024 European elections

  • Germany: 96
  • France: 81
  • Italy: 76
  • Spain: 61
  • Poland: 53
  • Romania: 33
  • Netherlands: 31
  • Belgium: 22
  • Greece: 21
  • Czechia: 21
  • Sweden: 21
  • Portugal: 21
  • Hungary: 21
  • Austria: 20
  • Bulgaria: 17
  • Denmark: 15
  • Finland: 15
  • Slovakia: 15
  • Ireland: 14
  • Croatia: 12
  • Lithuania: 11
  • Slovenia: 9
  • Latvia: 9
  • Estonia: 7
  • Cyprus: 6
  • Luxembourg: 6
  • Malta: 6

[Source: EU Parliament]


The rise and rise of Nigel Farage

Objectively, and putting party politics to one side, in last night’s BBC election debate Nigel Farage was the clear winner. His charisma, his command of numbers, and his fluency in argument and presentation easily dominated.

We await reputable opinion poll results following him throwing his hat into the ring in the constituency of Clacton and taking over as Leader of Reform UK. It seems possible that his party might even overtake the ruling Conservative Party in popularity. If it happens, this takes him from being the voice of a protest movement to being leader of a credible parliamentary party in British politics.

This would also open the way to a fundamental realignment of the political landscape following the general election, despite Mr Farage’s uphill battle against the UK’s ‘first-past-the-post’ electoral system. We are already aware of conversations taking place, although clearly we are not at liberty to report on these for reasons of confidentiality.

The significance of the Dutch EU elections to the British public

As we have pointed out in many previous reports over the last eight years, the MEPs in the EU Parliament have very little power but they do have some influence.

Whilst Nigel Farage has been careful to distance himself from some of the more extreme statements from Geert Wilders, there is now little doubt that voters across Europe have been shifting to the Right.

Finally, the UK general election….

A victory by Keir Starmer’s Labour still looks increasingly likely in the UK general election on 04 July, but it remains to be seen how His Majesty’s Opposition might be constituted, as the post-election discussions lead up to the next election in five years’ time.

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[ Sources: EU Parliament | EU Commission | Ipsos I&O | Dutch media ] Politicians and journalists can contact us for details, as ever.

Brexit Facts4EU.Org, Sat 08 Jun 2024

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