Observations

The EU Parliamentary election results will now present a headache for the Brussels liberal ‘elites’. As we have reported many times over the past years, the peoples of EU countries have been shifting their political allegiances. The voting in the last three days confirms a clear and increasing rejection of EU statist con

This change is mostly in response to issues such as the cost of living, the burgeoning immigration crisis, and the costs of Net Zero policies.

France now goes to the polls five days before the United Kingdom

President Macron wasted no time after seeing the results last night. In a bold – some would say ill-advised – move, he has called a snap general election. In effect, his government has fallen. His own presidency is not at stake, but the composition of the French parliament and his government may change considerably.

Marine Le Pen’s ambitious 29 year-old parliamentary leader will lead the fight for the RN, while she looks ahead to the next presidential election in 2027. It does, however, remain to be seen if by then her protégé will throw his own hat into the ring in those presidential elections.

Who does Sir Keir Starmer now have, if he wants to negotiate with in Europe?

If Keir Starmer becomes British Prime Minister on 05 July, he will be facing a very different political landscape in Europe. Firstly, for months the apparatchiks in Brussels will all be focused on deal-making, plotting, squabbling, and in-fighting.

Secondly, given the make-up of the new EU Parliament it is by no means sure they will approve the current EU Commission President, Ursula von der Leyen, for a second term. In the first place she must be nominated by the 27 leaders in the EU Council. The leaders are unlikely to do this if they feel she may not win a vote in the EU Parliament. As we commented before, this has never happened and then ‘all bets would be off’.

The EU Commission President is arguably the most powerful person in the EU. Once nominated by the EU Council and approved by the EU Parliament, he or she then nominates her chosen Commissioners from lists supplied by member governments. Each of these Commissioners then needs to be approved in the EU Parliament.

In short, if Sir Keir Starmer becomes British Prime Minister, he may find little interest in Brussels for negotiating with him for the rest of this year.

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