Farage's Reform leaps to 12 seats or gets none at all - take your pick of the polls

Facts4EU.Org looks at the latest polling company predictions

Montage © Facts4EU.Org 2024

As the general election draws closer, more and more polls have been coming out, showing what are believed to be likely outcomes. One thing is clear. These polls vary widely in what they are predicting. Even allowing for stated margins of error it is clear that the political landscape has changed so much that pollsters are finding it difficult to predict anything with any accuracy.

Below we start with the results of the latest Survation poll. On Wednesday night the Telegraph published the results of a different poll, with quite different outcomes and this is also below, for comparison purposes. The sample size of the Survation poll was 42,269, which is far larger than the Savanta poll for the Telegraph at 17,812. It remains to be seen which of these turns out to more accurate.

Survation poll puts Tories on 83 seats, Reform UK on 12, and Labour on 443

With Reform's focus on immigration, the latest Survation poll which came out makes for interesting reading. This shows Reform UK likely to win 12 seats in the House of Commons and would see Nigel Farage finally enter Parliament, as MP for Clacton. Conversely, the Savanta Telegraph poll has Reform on zero seats and a substantially increased margin of victory for Sir Keir Starmer's Labour.

Brexit Facts4EU.Org Summary

1. Survation MRP poll

Labour : 443
Conservative : 83
LibDem : 53
SNP : 34
Reform : 12
Green : 3
Plaid Cymru : 2
Labour majority : 256

2. Savanta Telegraph MRP poll

Labour : 516
Conservative : 53
LibDems : 50
SNP : 8
Plaid Cymru : 4
Greens : 1
Reform : 0
Labour majority : 400

Survation's analysis was conducted on behalf of the pro-EU organisation 'Best for Britain' and is based on 42,269 online and telephone interviews, conducted between 31 May and the 13 June. Their MRP or 'probability-based approach' estimates the probability of each party winning each seat and aggregates them to give an idea of how the election would play out. For example, if a party has a 50% chance of winning in 4 seats, they allocate 2 seats to them.

The same MRP methodology was used by Savanta for the Telegraph poll, which showed Reform UK winning no seats at all. If professional pollsters disagree to this extent, what chance do the rest of us have?

Conservative Party decimated, Labour landslide?

There are now just under two weeks to go until what looks set to be a pivotal general election in the history of the United Kingdom. Labour continue to lead by a margin so large it has never been overturned in history.

Whilst Facts4EU.Org continues to be non-partisan, there is little doubt that an incoming Labour government will have a radically different agenda on issues important to our team. Specifically these include the UK's relations with the EU, with the rest of the world, and the ability of the newly-independent Brexit Britain to take advantage of the opportunities offered by our new-found freedoms.

Right: Labour Leader & Deputy Leader bending the knee to BLM

To a large extent these opportunities have been squandered by successive administrations since the UK-EU Referendum, starting with the resignation of David Cameron, the subsequent government of Mrs May, the government of Boris Johnson with his huge majority, the short-lived administration of Liz Truss, and finally the Rishi Sunak period.

And in all this time immigration has been running at unsustainable levels, as we pointed out in our report yesterday.

Observations

Whether a fatal and wholesale slaughter will be inflicted on the governing Conservative Party in the general election in just under two weeks' time is a matter for conjecture. Our experience tells us that Labour's landslide may not be as large as expected. Nevertheless it will not be pretty for the Conservatives and we expect to see some radical changes in our political landscape.

In recent years there have been two stand-out figures in British politics : Boris Johnson and Nigel Farage. Boris has taken a back seat in this election. Nigel ultimately decided he had to throw his hat into the ring once again. At this election the Conservatives are fighting so many battles on so many fronts, we doubt the party machine will be able to throw all the dirty tricks against him which they did last time. We expect Nigel to win in Clacton. Ultimately the British electorate will decide. Sadly, it looks to us that we will have to continue to fight for the principles of national independence, sovereignty and freedom - and traditional British values - in the coming years. If any readers wish us to do this, read on.

We must get reports like this out there

Reports like the one above take far longer to research, write and produce than many people realise. If they were easy, readers would see other organisations also producing these daily. However, there’s little point in the Facts4EU.Org team working long hours, seven days-a-week, if we lack the resources to promote them effectively – to the public, to MPs, and to the media. This is where you come in, dear reader.

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[ Sources: Survation | Savanta ] Politicians and journalists can contact us for details, as ever.

Brexit Facts4EU.Org, Fri 21 Jun 2024

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Reader Comments 11

1. Sparky , Friday, June 21, 2024, 05:58:

After the last 5 years of chaos and dishonesty there is little or no trust in politicians. It will be interesting to see the turnout for the GE, I think it will be very low. The Cons have destroyed themselves over Brexit.
.
Boris Johnson and Nigel Farage are good campaigners but make or would make poor PM’s. We know Johnson told lies and did not like the detail. Farage is now in a position where he has to put detailed policies forward instead of complaints and so far it’s not working well. He’s also made himself look foolish in defending some of the nutcase candidates standing for Reform.

2. Ashley Great Britain , Friday, June 21, 2024, 06:10:

Polls are just crystal ball reading. We'll see on the day.
Sadly polls can be used to sway voters to the will of the preferred outcome.
Most people like or accept the winning team so the intended team gets more votes.
-
1 sparky.
Every party has nut case candidates, Nigel is not accepting them when they come out.
There are already many nut cases in Labour.
Nigel would probably make the best PM we have ever seen.
If the country looked outside the box and could see how bad both lab/con are, They would never vote for them.

3. LuxuryBalloon , Friday, June 21, 2024, 06:37:

One way Facts4EU could raise more money is by changing it’s name to Reform4UK … I reckon it is only a baby-step for Facts4EU to move from ‘non-partisan’ to become another ReformUK website.

4. Old Albion , Friday, June 21, 2024, 06:59:

In a short discussion over lunch with four other people. All four indicated they had no idea who to vote for and absolutely no faith in any of the options.
Of course this has no statistical value at all, but did seem to be an indication of the shambles politics has become in the (dis)UK.
I was the odd one out stating Reform will get my vote.
'Sparky' @ 1 The Cons have destroyed themselves over their failure to implement Brexit. Corrected for you. :)
.

5. Have You Wondered , Friday, June 21, 2024, 10:47:

.
So - now you have the Reform 'Contract' do you vote for them
or
settle for a repetition of the last 40 yrs of tribal politics and to where it has led to the present day with the UK ‘silverware’ sold off and asset stripped, rife uncontrolled corruption in Westminster, lies and incompetence and the laughable PMQ's 'Punch and Judy show of tribal politics sustained to keep a party in power and disregarding the welfare and security of the electorate in every respect.
.
What you going to do?
.

6. Gazzablack , Friday, June 21, 2024, 10:50:

.
However we do know that Starmer told lies.
And we do know that Boris' judgement on dealing with Covid was superior to Keir's who would have had us in lockdown earlier, harder and for far longer than was the case.

7. Have You Wondered , Friday, June 21, 2024, 11:00:

.
1. Sparky "He’s also made himself look foolish in defending some of the nutcase candidates standing for Reform."
.
Sparky - get real. The two mainstream parties (we have voted for!) over the last 50yrs have had their fair share of nutcases, liars, cheats, anti democrats and corrupt crooks and look at where they have got the nation !
.
Whilst reform may be the new kid on the block that lack political acumen, they at least will break the corrupt cycle mentioned above which in my view has totally *****d the nation.
.

8. NH , Friday, June 21, 2024, 11:30:

3. LB, "to become another ReformUK website"
According to BBC Question Time the Reform Party does not seem to exist. However they do seem happy to accept the 18% of their salaries which are paid by reform supporters.
.
This Facts4EU report is about pollster accuracy. As the biggest variation in pollster predictions is the support for Reform how can you possible discuss this without mentioning the Reform party ? I understand the reason there are such large variations is because there are a huge number of "undecideds" and they are not recorded as "undecided". Different polling organisations record these in different ways.
.
If Labour are elected, even with a huge majority, the important statistic will be how many people vote for them. If the number is relatively low it may effect their behaviour and policies.

9. John Jones , Friday, June 21, 2024, 21:02:

3. Luxury Balloon
"...I reckon it is only a baby-step for Facts4EU to move from ‘non-partisan’ to become another ReformUK website..."
I'm absolutely shocked - I tell you 😂

10. John Jones , Friday, June 21, 2024, 21:20:

4. Old Albion
"....'Sparky' @ 1 The Cons have destroyed themselves over their failure to implement Brexit. Corrected for you. :)..."
I'm not convinced this is the case. I agree the Tories with connivance from the 5th estate or civil service conspired to make Brexit very difficult.
Labour too will have some very hard choices - the EU has already indicated what it wants for its pound of flesh - Starmer will have the same Gordian knot on how to deal with The EU and the ECJ /CJEU.
Going back into the SM and/or CU will be extremely difficult for Starmer not least because of the costs that the EU will extract.
The real concern is that Starmer & Lammey will be so enthralled by the EU they will negotiate away what little leverage we did have under the Tories.

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