Here’s a question that Rejoiners simply cannot answer

Why repeat the claim of a 4% fall in GDP ‘due to Brexit’ when the opposite is the case?

Montage © Facts4EU.Org 2024

(And the surprisingly-good new economic growth figures show what Labour has inherited)

Once again, the latest data from the ONS shows how Brexit Britain has defied all the doom-sayers. GDP growth has exceeded the expectations of all the ‘experts’ who backed Project Fear, warning voters that if they voted Leave in the EU referendum we were all headed for an economic cliff edge.

It also makes Rejoiners’ claims that Brexit would cause a 4% reduction in GDP look ridiculous.

The growth figures for the three months to May will put the UK high up in the league table of the G7 countries. We will not know the exact ranking until the full second quarter results are declared by organisations such as the OECD and IMF, but the UK’s performance looks very encouraging so far.

Brexit Facts4EU.Org Summary

Latest economic growth figures from the ONS, to May 2024

Real GDP : +0.9% in Mar-May 2024, compared with Dec-Feb 2024
Strongest 3-monthly growth since Jan 2022
Growth in May alone : 0.4% compared to April
Growth in May alone compared to one year ago (May 2023) : 1.4%

[Source: Latest ONS official data, released Thurs 11 Jul 2022.]

Who came up with the fantasy figure of a 4% reduction in GDP ‘due to Brexit’?

It was the discredited Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) which published this erroneous claim. As with every other forecast the OBR makes, they got it completely wrong. Here are just some things readers can tell Remainer-Rejoiners.

The OBR’s forecasts are never proved to have been right
This was a 15-year forecast
The OBR can’t even get its forecasts right for the next six months
The forecast was based on faulty assumptions
Our reports deal in the official facts, not forecasts
The fact is that UK GDP has grown steadily since the EU Referendum (apart from Covid years)
Since actually leaving the EU, the UK had the highest growth in the G7 for 2 years running
Real GDP growth continues and is currently accelerating
Real wage growth continues to rise

The Rt Hon Sir John Redwood commented on this Facts4EU.Org report

"Once again the OBR produce bad forecasts and the Remain establishment use them as facts. Brexit did not cut GDP. It went up. It did not increase unemployment. It went down. It did not reduce our total exports. They rose. The media should stop using the 4% loss figure as it never happened."
- The Rt Hon Sir John Redwood, commenting to Facts4EU.Org and CIBUK.Org, 12 Jul 2024

May’s month-on-month growth was double what analysts expected

The 0.4% GDP growth in May compared to April was double what analysts had predicted. All three main sectors, (services, production and construction) contributed positively to GDP growth in the month.

With regard to the largest sector of the UK economy, services, the ONS stated : “This is the strongest three-monthly growth rate since December 2021.

Observations

For years Facts4EU.Org has been continually insulted on social media by ignorant Remainer-Rejoiners who never actually bother to read our reports. If they did, they would know that these reports are based on official facts, not fiction, and they might learn something.

We don’t have the resources – nor the will – to correct these poor souls each day. It doesn’t matter how many facts you try to thrust at them, they simply do not want to hear them. Nevertheless we are often asked by readers for information with which to rebut Remainer-Rejoiners’ claims – either on social media or when talking to friends and family.

We therefore hope that our report today is useful.

If this was useful, please help to keep us going

We are a 'not for profit' team (we make a loss) and any payment goes towards the actual work, not plush London offices, lunch or taxi expenses, or other luxuries of some organisations.

We badly need more of our thousands of readers to become donate, to enable us to continue. Please help us today by donating here You will receive a personal, friendly ‘thank you’ from a member of our team within 48 hours. Thank you.

[ Sources: Office for National Statistics, 11 Jul 2024 ] Politicians and journalists can contact us for details, as ever.

Brexit Facts4EU.Org, Sat 13 Jul 2024

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Reader Comments 21

11. NH , Saturday, July 13, 2024, 15:02:

10. LB, "I am not sure the second part of your comment is correct."
I have used figures from 2010 to 2023 approximately inline with the 15% population growth from non-UK nationals in the same period. During this period UK nationals in the NHS increased by approximately 250,000. If the NHS was 15% smaller you would have only needed 63,000 additional employees so this would have easily been provided by UK nationals.
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If the NHS was just 5% smaller during this period it would have needed approx. 207,000 additional employees so well below the 250,000 UK nationals employed. For Doctors, with a similar 5% smaller NHS we would need an addition approx. 31,000 over the 13 year period. The number of additional UK doctors employed during this period was approx. 28,000 so we would only need an additional 3,000.
.
As I have mentioned employing foreign doctors is not a problem. They are well paid and will have good pensions so they are not going to be a burden on the state. The figures are not perfect because for total staff in the early years there were far more "unknown nationals" but I am assuming most of these will have been foreign nationals.

12. Mike S , Saturday, July 13, 2024, 16:22:

5 Sparky, with all due respect mate, but, we shouldn't be relying on foreigners to do the work that too many LAZY UK citizens could be doing but, aren't being encouraged to get off their backsides & go & do a day's work! There should be the incentive for today's youth & work shy to get up out of bed in the morning & contribute to society rather than take, take, take without paying into the pot unlike most of us here do, including yourself! We go to work & are maybe retired,, WE paid into the pot! I know the foreigners pay into it too but, too many UK people don't. Train our own to do these jobs, then we wouldn't need so many folk from overseas but, it's cheaper to hire from overseas than train our own people.

13. Sparky , Saturday, July 13, 2024, 16:38:

9 NH. Since 2009 (15 years). Uk population has increased by 8.9% not 15%. In 2009 there were already 9% of UK population not UK born. An increase in the age of the population as baby boomers reach retirement + age and an increase in life expectancy is also increasing the size of the population. Immigration should be controlled but some of the arguments against immigration such pressure on the health system and housing can also be applied to an aging population.

14. Soarky , Saturday, July 13, 2024, 16:48:

12 Mike S. Don't assume about me, my contributions have been well paid. I agree about not relying on foreigners, and this is where our politicians have been letting us down for years, the baby boomers were born in the late 50's and early 60's. Why is there surprise when there is additional pressure on our health and care sector? Our Govt should have been planning for changes to our population 25 years ago.
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That was always my concern with Brexit, never had a passion for the EU, I don't think many in the UK did, but on balance we were better in than out but more to the point I didn't trust our politicians, particularly Johnson and Gove to deliver and they didn't. More fool you if you did.

15. Mike S , Saturday, July 13, 2024, 18:49:

14 Sparky, as I said in my post, it was sent with respect towards yourself, no presumption was intended. I, assume, like yourself, welcome true, honest debate. I truthfully meant no disrespect towards you. If you got that impression, it truly was not my intention.

16. Sparky , Saturday, July 13, 2024, 19:04:

15 MS. My misunderstanding, and feeling likewise on debate and respect.
.
Re pot being paid into. There isn’t one, even NI which was intended to pay for future pensions etc only covers today’s pension payments. Future pension payments will rely on the tax revenue from the economy and why trade and growth are so important for all of us. I’m stating the obvious and appreciate you don’t need me to explain it.

17. Sparky , Saturday, July 13, 2024, 19:14:

6 NH. Re goods exports, from ONS.
Exports to the EU decreased by £0.5 billion (3.3%) in May 2024. This was primarily because of a £0.6 billion decrease in machinery and transport equipment, which was partially offset by a £0.2 billion increase in fuel exports and a £0.1 billion rise in exports of miscellaneous manufactures (Figure 4).
The decrease in machinery and transport equipment exports was linked to a decrease in exports of aircraft to Germany, while the rise in fuel exports was mainly because of a rise in exports of crude oil to the Netherlands.
Exports to non-EU countries decreased by £0.3 billion (1.8%) in May 2024. This was mainly driven by a £0.5 billion decrease in exports of fuels, which was partially offset by a £0.2 billion increase in exports of machinery and transport equipment.

18. Mike S , Saturday, July 13, 2024, 19:22:

16 Sparky, my post was about hard working, taxpaying members of society, my presumption was, & is like myself & assume you, we pay our dues but those who don't pay get everything whilst those who do pay get practically nothing! That's my grievance, not you mate. 👍

19. Gazzablack , Saturday, July 13, 2024, 20:33:

Some people seem to be under the impression that all the migrants entering the UK go by the name "Dorian Grey", and that they all have portraits in their home countries that age instead of them.
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But if they don't, they will end up being a component of the "aged population", and will exacerbate the problem, not alleviate it.
.
.
Here's something to think about
As recently as 2011 German GDP was about twice as large as the GDP of California.
Now they are about the same.
.
..
BTW: The UK has just surpassed India to take the title of "Worlds third largest Venture Capital Market", behind the USA and China.

20. NH , Sunday, July 14, 2024, 08:33:

13. Sparky, "UK population"
All the figures I have seen are estimates and they vary significantly. As I have shown with just a 5% reduction in the size of the NHS we could have staffed the NHS with UK nationals. Your claim that without immigration we could not service the population is ridiculous !

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