Macron’s French government falls, as his PM resigns this morning

Le Pen wins the most votes but no party has a majority and France becomes virtually ungovernable

Montage © Facts4EU.Org 2024

Facts4EU.Org disassembles the complex French electoral results for the UK and global audience

From Facts4EU.Org’s France correspondent

Macron suffers another humiliation as Marine Le Pen secures the highest vote share in yesterday’s French elections. In the French media and on the BBC, the victor is being presented as the left-wing ‘Popular National Front’, but this is a temporary electoral coalition which is unlikely to survive its first contact with political reality.

Analysing the French election results is not for the faint-hearted. Overnight Facts4EU has gone to the Ministère de l'Intérieur as the definitive source, but their numbers do not match the numbers reported in the French press, nor do they represent any concept of government. The reason is because of the complicated ‘groupings’ or ‘coalitions’ at work in this election.

A second complication is that the French have two elections, one week apart. Below we are showing the results from Round Two, according to the Ministère de l'Intérieur during the night. These clearly demonstrate that Marine Le Pen’s party won the most votes, despite being up against a concerted opposition of around nine parties, some of which stood down candidates in the second round in order to defeat Le Pen.

Brexit Facts4EU.Org Summary

French general election Round Two - Vote share

National Rally (Le Pen) : 8,745,076 (32.0%)
Union of the Left : 7,005,502 (25.7%)
Ensemble ! (Macron) : 6,314,523 (23.2%)
Les Républicains : 1,474,722 (5.4%)
Union of the Right : 1,364,945 (5.0%)

[Source : Ministère de l'Intérieur, 03.00am, 08 Jul 2024.]

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At around 5.15pm today our Chairman will be appearing live on the Dan Wootton show 'Outspoken Live', answering questions about what all of this means for France, for the EU, and for the United Kingdom. To watch it live, click on the image below.

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These results effectively leave France ungovernable

The problem with Far-Left and Centre-Left parties combining to defeat Marine Le Pen is that they were prepared to do this for the election, but government is another matter and most will not work with each other. With no single party securing an overall majority, France is in for weeks - if not months - of bickering and will end up with a minority coalition government with no popular mandate to pass legislation.

The French press (and their British counterparts) are presenting this as a ‘win’ for the New Popular Front, but this is disingenuous. The New Popular Front essentially comprises the Communists, the Far-Left Socialists, and the Greens. However this ‘coalition’ won 1.7m FEWER votes than Marine Le Pen’s party.

Yesterday evening we watched numerous party Leaders’ speeches, including that by the far-left firebrand, Jean-Luc Mélenchon. Well-known in France but not in the UK, he is an uncompromising figure, unlikely to be able to unite anyone in a possible new government.

So if Le Pen won the most votes, why is the BBC declaring this as a victory for the Left?

Credit : BBC

The reason is simple. Just as in the United Kingdom, votes cast and seats won do not generally match.

In the UK last week, Nigel Farage’s Reform UK comfortably beat the LibDems in terms of vote share, but the LibDems have ended up with 72 seats compared to Reform UK’s five. A party which came fourth now has 14 times the number of MPs in Parliament as the party that came third.

Brexit Facts4EU.Org Summary

No. of seats for the French coalitions, as they currently stand

[Source : Ministère de l'Intérieur, 03.00am, 08 Jul 2024.]

Observations

The situation in France this morning is, to say the least, somewhat chaotic. President Macron's young, gay Prime Minister announced last night that he will be tendering his resignation to the Elysée Palace this morning.

The election results we have reported above come from the official source, as readers would expect of us. The French media are reporting slightly different results but this is because of individual MPs declaring allegiances which may be different to those of their parties. The key thing which is not being reported is that yesterday Marine Le Pen's party did in fact achieve the highest vote share of any individual party.

It took phalanxes of parties in combination - none of which are likely to work together easily in government - to defeat her in terms of seats won.

Ms Le Pen made no statement last night but we assume she is content with the fact that she drove President Macron's coalition of five parties into third place. Even him ganging up on her failed to save his 'jambon fumé'.

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[ Sources: Ministère de l'Intérieur ] Politicians and journalists can contact us for details, as ever.

Brexit Facts4EU.Org, Mon 08 Jul 2024

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Reader Comments 6

1. terence patrick hewett , Monday, July 08, 2024, 08:26:

Zut alors.

2. KB , Monday, July 08, 2024, 11:36:

Quote: <<However this ‘coalition’ won 1.7m votes than Marine Le Pen’s party.>>
So is this 1.7m MORE votes or 1.7m FEWER votes ?
FEWER - Ed (coding error at 3am)

3. KB , Monday, July 08, 2024, 13:35:

OK thanks, I thought it would be "fewer" but best to make sure before I say it to anyone.

4. Hopwood , Monday, July 08, 2024, 15:27:

The French have National Rally (admittedly not in power but strong enough to put some brake on the worst excesses of the Left ).
We have National Calamity. Anger at the Tories for their betrayal of all those who trusted them will not go away whoever is their next
"Leader". Armed forces cut to the bone,migrants hastened in,the list is too depressing to reiterate. Our so-called democratic voting system could have been rationalized long ago,but party always comes far ahead of country. Revolution and civil war have never loomed on our horizon,but.......

5. Hopwood , Monday, July 08, 2024, 15:42:

Before I am reminded about the English civil war,I mean of course in modern times. I like to clarify these things....

6. John Jones , Monday, July 08, 2024, 17:45:

France ought to be ungovernable but, given how the French establishment corralled the left & centre parties, it was being claimed even last week, that M Le Pen's party would never ever get near being in government.
The French electoral system is designed to prevent populists getting into government.
Sure the left & greens and social democrats will fight like rats in a sack - but the French public sector which accounts for over 55% of public spending will ensure, via the clerisey & civil service to carry on being good citizens of the EU.
Melenchon can easily be bought off by a few billion here & there - importantly the band played on as the great ship France will, ever so slowly drown in ever more debt & penury.

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