Poll : Only 24% of Tory members say they’ll vote Conservative with Rishi as leader

Major survey by Conservative Post shows the level of discontent in the governing party

Montage © Facts4EU.Org 2024

Over 50% of Tory party members in the poll said they will vote for Reform UK
We reveal just how worried the Prime Minister should be, ahead of this year’s election

On Monday (05 Feb 2024) the influential website Conservative Post published its polling of Conservative Party members. As regular readers know, Facts4EU is non-partisan but we thought all our readers might be interested to view the results of this significant poll.

It is important to note that this was a poll of Tory Party Members, not of voters in the country at large. Nevertheless as leader of his party the results of the poll make for catastrophic reading for the Prime Minister, Rishi Sunak.

What follows is based on an article written by the editor of Conservative Post, précis’d by Facts4EU.Org for the wider audience with her permission, and with the addition of our ‘at-a-glance’ charts. The link to the full Conservative Post article is below.

Poll : Under 24% of Tory Party members say they will vote Conservative with Rishi as leader

The survey, almost three times larger than the Conservative Home poll carried out each month which shows the most popular members of the Cabinet, has highlighted huge discontent in sections of the party as well as identifying who the Conservative Members want as leader.

2,086 people who were verified by CCHQ as being Conservative party members in 2022 answered a survey that was carried out across the UK from 29-31 January 2024.

Brexit Facts4EU.Org Summary

Some key findings from the poll

As things stand will you vote Conservative at the next General Election with Rishi Sunak as leader?

  • Yes : 23.6%
  • No : 57.4%
  • Don’t know : 18.9%

© Brexit Facts4EU.Org 2024 - click to enlarge

Will you be campaigning for the Conservative Party in the lead up to the General Election if Rishi Sunak remains as Prime Minister?

  • No : 90.1%
  • Yes : 9.9%

If a general election were called TODAY and you HAD to vote, which party would you vote for?

  • Conservative : 34.3%
  • Reform UK : 50.5%
  • Would not vote : 13.0%
  • Other : 1.0%

© Brexit Facts4EU.Org 2024 - click to enlarge

Would you support a return of Nigel Farage to the Conservative Party?

  • Yes : 75.6%
  • Not sure : 13.6%
  • No : 10.9%

If action isn’t taken, will Reform UK keep growing?

If an election were called today 50.5% of the Conservative Party members in the poll said they would vote for Reform UK and 16.0% said they have already joined Richard Tice’s party.

Other key findings show 90% of members think the Conservative Party is not currently conservative enough and 92% of the members say the party has been hijacked by non-conservatives.

Inspired to run the poll, Conservative Post editor Claire Bullivant said:

“A few weeks ago I was asked to go campaigning in Worcestershire. I was one of only two who turned up. Not so long ago come rain or shine, there would have been the equivalent of at least a few football teams giving up their Sunday morning to pound the pavements with me. Not anymore.

“I knew support for the party was waning, I hear it every day from my readers of the Conservative Post. But I made some calls and was astonished so many of the usual faces I see running events for my local association, stuffing envelopes, delivering leaflets, the really dedicated members that lived and breathed the party, had also laid down their tools. One who had supported the party for over 60 years told me: ‘They expect my time, effort and money but not my opinions. I’m not helping anymore. I’ve had enough.’

“I reached out to various Association Chairmen across the country and they all painted the same bleak picture. Members and local activists, the men and women who do so much to win us local and national elections, are on strike.

“I believe, outside of CCHQ, the Conservative Post holds the largest database of Conservative Party members, so I decided to run this survey. It was open only to Conservative Party members (who were verified by CCHQ in November 2022) and was overseen by a very well-respected data analyst called Mike Rouse at Bluetorch Consulting who has run many data collection processes for the party. The results are fair, honest and speak for themselves.

“I’m an eternal optimist and have tremendous faith in our party and the Conservative MPs to do the right thing. We need to win this next election. Just as the rest of the world is turning its back on socialism and moving towards the right, we don’t want to be stuck with socialists in power for the next five years here in the UK. We’re in the midst of an almighty storm. Let’s send out the lifeboats and bring the members back. It’s time to become proper conservatives again to save our party and our country.

“But to do that, members are clear, we need a new leader.”

Brexit Facts4EU.Org Summary

Other findings from this large poll

The following percentage of members say they would vote Conservative at the next General Election if one of the following became leader:

  • Boris Johnson : 85.4%
  • Jacob Rees-Mogg : 69.5%
  • Suella Braverman : 65.4%
  • Priti Patel : 47.4%
  • Kemi Badenoch : 43.4%
  • Liz Truss : 43.1%
  • Penny Mordaunt : 42.6%
  • Robert Jenrick : 31.6%
  • James Cleverly : 18.9%
  • David Cameron : 14.0%

Do you want to ‘Bring Back Boris’?

  • Yes : 73.2%
  • Don’t know : 15.2%
  • No : 11.6%

And on the major issues

How important are the following priorities for the government over the next 12 months?

  • Reducing illegal immigration : 96.0%
  • National security : 94.0%
  • Growing the economy : 88.4%
  • Tackling too much wokeness : 85.7%
  • Reducing NHS waiting lists : 78.3%
  • Cutting taxes : 65.2%
  • Tackling inflation : 65.0%
  • Ending public sector strikes : 63.3%
  • Children’s safety online : 53.8%
  • Education : 51.0%
  • Building new homes : 34.4%

[Fieldwork: 29/01/2024 to 31/01/2024 - Valid Responses: 2,086]


This is a major poll of Conservative Party Members by Conservative Post and it should be deeply troubling for the Prime Minister in what will almost certainly be an election year.

If 90% of his party’s membership say they will not even go out and campaign for their own party come the next general election, then things are serious. Worse still, only 24% of his own members say they will vote Conservative if Rishi Sunak remains leader.

We have summarised the results of this large poll for readers because we have not seen it in the mainstream media.

Readers can view the full findings of the poll on the Conservative Post website here.

We must get reports like this out there

Reports like the one above take far longer to research, write and produce than many people realise. If they were easy, readers would see other organisations also producing these daily. However, there’s little point in the Facts4EU.Org team working long hours, seven days-a-week, if we lack the resources to promote them effectively – to the public, to MPs, and to the media. This is where you come in, dear reader.

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[ Source: Claire Bullivant, Conservative Post ] Politicians and journalists can contact us for details, as ever.

Brexit Facts4EU.Org, Thurs 08 Feb 2024

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