The EU’s power vacuum – Who will hoover up?

The governments of the EU’s 2 largest economies have turned to dust, as we predicted

Montage © Facts4EU.Org 2024

From an angry President Macron to a depressed German Chancellor, we summarise what’s happening across the Channel

The bloc’s two largest economies, Germany and France, each have governments which have crashed and are now in effect ‘lame ducks’. In this report Facts4EU.Org summarises the latest developments for readers. We also reveal the extraordinary televised statement from French President Emmanuel Macron which stood out for its vitriol and divisiveness.

We start with the relative importance to the EU of these two countries economically, before asking:

Are the EU's top two economies now ungovernable?

Brexit Facts4EU.Org Summary

The EU’s Top 10 largest economies… (And the non-EU Brexit Britain)

The departure of the UK has left the ranking of the EU’s top economies looking like this

(GDP in 2023, in US dollars billions)

1. Germany : $4,456
United Kingdom : $3,340
2. France : $3,031
3. Italy : $2,255
4. Spain : $1,581
5. Netherlands : $1,118
6. Poland : $811
7. Belgium : $632
8. Sweden : $593
9. Ireland : $546
10. Austria : $516

[Source : World Bank.]

1. France’s government falls, President Macron delivers vitriolic TV statement to French people

Given the short-lived Prime Minister Barnier’s role in punishing the UK for daring to leave its empire, we doubt many British readers will be sad to see the end of his political career, when he lost a vote of no confidence in the French parliament.

Exactly one week ago (Thurs 05 Dec 2024) French President Emmanuel Macron spoke to the French people on TV, with an unprecedented official announcement in its vitriol and apportioning of blame. In light of the fall of his government, as President of the Fifth Republic it might have been thought that Monsieur Macron would have delivered a unifying message. This was not the case. Indeed his statement to the nation might better be described as thoroughly divisive.

Macron’s televised statement – plus some excerpts from the text

To get sub-titles in English, click on ‘Settings’, then on Sub-titles, then 'French (auto-generate)', then again on 'French (auto-generate), then choose English from the drop-down. (Blame the Elysée Palace, not us!)

Excerpts (Translation by Facts4EU.Org)

“You took your own responsibility by going to vote massively in the legislative elections last June and July.”
“No party, no coalition presented to the voters can claim to have the majority alone, and this situation requires a new political organization. It is unprecedented but that is how it is.”
“He [Michel Barnier] was censured, which is unprecedented in 60 years, because the far right and the far left united in an anti-republican front and because forces that only yesterday governed France chose to help them.”
“I know that some are tempted to hold me responsible for this situation; it is much more comfortable.”
“I will never assume the irresponsibility of others”
“The deputies of [Marine Le Pen’s] National Rally chose to vote for a motion of censure that said the opposite of their program, which insulted their own voters. In doing so, they simply chose disorder, which is the only project that unites them with the far left. And this with the complicity of the rest of the New Popular Front. Not to do, but to undo, to create disorder.”
“They are not thinking about you, your lives, your difficulties, your monthly income, your projects. Let's be honest.”
“Yes, the thirty months that we have ahead of us must be thirty months of useful actions for the country. And for that, the government will have to start from reality and not from fantasies or untruths.”

Quite where this now leaves France is anyone’s guess. The 2024 budget for this year has been extended through to next year under presidential decree but apart from that, Barnier’s caretaker government will not be able to enact any serious legislation.

Background to the current débâcle

President Macron called a surprise snap election following his party’s annihilation in the EU Parliament elections earlier this year. In the same way as Rishi Sunak’s surprise decision to call an early general election in the UK, the results were disastrous.

Ultimately Macron appointed Michel Barnier as his Prime Minister – a man whose party only secured 6% in the second round of voting. Now Barnier has lost a confidence vote in the French legislature, having lost the support of the party that won the most votes : Marine Le Pen’s National Rally. Barnier is only staying on as a ‘caretaker’ PM.

Given Barnier’s role in punishing the UK for daring to leave its empire, we doubt many British readers will be sad to see the end of his political career.

At the time of the July election, we called France "virtually ungovernable" and we have not changed our opinion. Currently it is hard to see how anyone can form an effective government in France.

As President Macron reminded the French people a week ago, it is not possible under the French constitution to call another election for a period of 12 months after the previous one. Even if a way around this were found (and we believe this is possible), Macron is hardly likely to want to see his party annihilated still further, which is in all probability what would happen.

2. Germany's government falls, fresh elections called for February

Germany has always been the economic powerhouse of the EU. Without it there would be no Euro – or if there were it would have a fraction of its current value, the European Central Bank would be in dire difficulties, and the remaining western countries would struggle to subsidise the majority of other EU member countries, mostly from Eastern Europe. Any thought of enlargement of the EU to the Balkans and beyond would be off the table.

Prior to Brexit in 2021, the United Kingdom helped to share Germany’s financial burden. To some extent it continues to do so, thanks to Theresa May’s disastrous ‘Divorce Bill’, but this will diminish over time. Without ‘Treasure Island’ in the EU, the major part of the burden has fallen on Germany, and to a lesser extent France and Italy.

For years, particularly under German Chancellor Angela Merkel, Germany’s was the dominant voice in the EU. A classic example was the imposition of Ursula von der Leyen as the sole candidate for EU Commission President in 2019, riding roughshod over the agreed procedures with the EU Parliament. Under the new Chancellor Olaf Scholz, however, Germany’s voice has diminished with his receding power and rapidly-falling popularity in his home country.

Scholz’s uneasy coalition has now disintegrated – as we predicted – and rush elections are due to be held on 23 February next year. In the meantime his is effectively a ‘lame duck’ government.

With the inexorable rise of the right-wing AfD party and the popularity of the Christian Democrats, it is hard to see his party having any future role going forward.

The EU’s top 2 economies are in governmental paralysis

With its top two economies effectively paralysed in terms of government, the EU is not in a good place. In previous years, these countries were major influencers on decisions made in Brussels. Now the politicians in each country are more focused on their domestic problems.

Many in the EU are now worrying that the unelected EU Commission will fill the void.

Observations

It might seem odd to report on a power vacuum in the EU, when the Commission has spent the last 50 years inexorably extending its power over the member countries, but this is what is now happening at national level in continental Europe.

Overall, we are looking at an empire whose top two member governments are in serious trouble. Both are in ‘tick-over’ mode, and can’t realistically make any important decisions on EU policy for months.

One point of note from our chart above is that Poland has for years been the largest recipient of EU funding out of all the member countries, and still is to this day. Despite this, its economy now ranks it at No.6 out of 27 EU member countries. As soon as Poland becomes a net contributor to the EU’s budget, it will be interesting to see how the Poles react.

Fortunately, the people of the United Kingdom made the decision to leave this sclerotic empire over eight years ago, in 2016. Despite all attempts by anti-democratic Remainer-Rejoiner MPs such as the Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer, Deputy Leader Angela Rayner, and Chancellor Rachel Reeves, along with their fellow members of the Cabinet, the UK did finally get a Brexit of sorts.

There is of course work still to be done to deliver the decision of the British people in full, which is why we are still here and still fighting. We can only hope you will continue to support us.

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[ Sources: Elysee Palace | Bundestag | French and German Ministries of the Interior ] Politicians and journalists can contact us for details, as ever.

Brexit Facts4EU.Org, Thurs 12 Dec 2024

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Reader Comments 6

1. Ashley Great Britain , Thursday, December 12, 2024, 07:24:

With the way the EU is run this type of thing was always going to happen. To an outsider it looks very serious indeed but to the EU it's fine. The commission will plaster over it and they'll fudge something at the beginning of next year. The fact remains that these are yet more signs that the the EU as a whole is failing. Sadly Labour are taking the UK on a destructive journey too, Labour are from the same mold of the liberal,sclerotic woke world.
The country needs to see that Labour and Conservative's don't deserve any more votes.
As if we needed more hardship.

2. LuxuryBalloon , Thursday, December 12, 2024, 07:35:

How can there be a power vacuum if Von der Leyen is still in charge?

3. Ashley Great Britain , Thursday, December 12, 2024, 07:47:

2 Lux balloon.
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Von der leyen is the president of the European commission, not of Germany or France. But your right, the EU commission is ultimately in charge of the sovereignty and decisions of both these countries.

4. Have You Wondered , Thursday, December 12, 2024, 08:54:

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Can anyone explain why Luxembourg apparently has the largest (streets ahead) GDP per capita yet receives the most from the EU?
.

5. Ashley Great Britain , Thursday, December 12, 2024, 10:49:

4 HYW.
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Because Luxembourg is where all the EU greed and corruption originates from.

6. gazzablack , Friday, December 13, 2024, 12:40:

Norwegian politicians start campaign to dismantle undersea power cables with mainland Europe after Germany’s decision to scrap its nuclear power plants causes electricity prices to spike in southern Norway.
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Norwegian regional politicians from across the aisle now urge the government not to renew the country’s two oldest power links to Denmark and Germany in a bid to reduce local power prices.
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Weather conditions in Germany caused a “Dunkelflaute” today (cold weather with no wind nor sunlight) that makes it impossible to get energy from wind and solar power during a cold and dark day with a lot of demand.
.
As Germany has very little base load power left after dismantling all its nuclear energy plants, the country instead falls back under importing energy from other countries under EU rules, driving up prices there.
Sweden’s Deputy PM and Energy Minister @BuschEbba stated today that she’s “furious with the Germans.”
.
Due to Merkel’s and Scholz’s decisions to scrap Germany’s nuclear power, people in southern Sweden and southern Norway now have pay $5 for a 10-minute shower.

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