Brexiteers rejoice and Rejoiners wail : UK economic growth is revised upwards significantly

Brexit Britain’s economy has been doing much better than previously thought

Montage © Facts4EU.Org 2023

The latest economic figures are another bitter pill for Rejoiners to swallow

For the last two years Rejoiners have gleefully told the public how badly the economy of Brexit Britain has been doing – regardless of many actual facts. The ‘fact’ they clung on to was that the UK’s economy was the only one in the G7 not to have recovered to pre-pandemic levels. Yesterday the Office for National Statistics swept that particular Rejoiners’ rug from under their feet.

In today’s report, Brexit Facts4EU.Org looks at the latest good news from the Office for National Statistics, released Friday 01 September 2023. The last three years’ figures have been revised upwards and the economy is now confirmed as having grown to 0.6% more than its pre-pandemic level.

Brexit Facts4EU.Org Summary

Whichever key metric you choose, the news is good

Upward revisions in UK's growth rate

  • Current price GDP growth in 2021 is revised up by 0.9% to 8.5%
  • Volume GDP growth in 2021 is revised up by 1.1% to 8.7%
  • Annual volume GDP growth is now estimated to be 0.6% above pandemic levels
  • Previously this was estimated as 1.2% below

[Source: ONS Blue Book 2023 changes on gross domestic product, Fri 01 Sept 2023.]

Size of UK economy at end 2022 compared to 2019 (pre-Covid)

  • ONS figure used up until 31 Aug 2023 : - 1.2%
  • ONS revised figure, from 01 Sept 2023 : +0.6%

[Source: ONS Blue Book 2023 changes on gross domestic product, Fri 01 Sept 2023.]

© Brexit Facts4EU.Org 2023 - click to enlarge

Some of the ‘revisions’ are extraordinary

The ONS give many reasons for their ‘revisions’ in the growth of UK GDP since Brexit. Most people would probably call these ‘corrections’.

The volatility in some of these ‘revisions’ is breathtaking. For example, here is what has happened to the growth rates in the all-important services sector, which represents just over 80% of the UK’s entire output.

Brexit Facts4EU.Org Summary

Examples of some sectors

Services overall

  • In 2020, annual services growth has been revised upwards by 0.5%
  • In 2021, the services sector has been revised up by 3.9%
  • In 2021 it is now estimated to have grown by 10.9%, not 7%

The Wholesale Trade

  • Wholesale trade volume GVA increased by 32.4% in 2021
  • This is substantially more than the 2.7% growth previously reported

The Health Sector

For 2021 the ONS has had to increase its growth number from 34.6% to 57.1%. Here is what the ONS said yesterday :-

“In 2021, the volume of human health services gross value added increased by 57.1%, recovering much of the previous fall. This was an upward revision from the previous estimate of 34.6% growth in volume gross value added, reflecting annual benchmark data on a wider range of health services, strength in the private sector, and the impact of the rapidly evolving relationship between output and intermediate consumption in the sector.”

Productivity

Many of those who put the UK down use productivity as an example. In all the details of the ONS’ report, we found the following :-

  • The 2021 year-on-year output per hour growth rate was revised up to 1.7%

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Observations

To err is human and all of us make mistakes at some point in our lives. Here is what the ONS has to say :-

“These revisions are mainly because we have richer data from our annual surveys and administrative data, we are now able to measure costs incurred by businesses (intermediate consumption) directly and we can adjust for prices (deflation) at a far more detailed level.”

That said, it is interesting that by its own admission the ONS says the ‘revisions’ it has made to its figures from 1997-2019 (pre-Brexit) are very small – around one thousandth of a percent.

It is only starting from the year when the UK officially left the EU (01 Feb 2020) that the ‘revisions’ just published are extreme. Naturally we understand that data collection during the pandemic may have been compromised, but the Government relies on these figures for its decision-making, as does the Bank of England.

The good news

In all of the above, the key messages are :- Brexit Britain is NOT the only major economy which failed to recover its economy to pre-pandemic levels The UK’s economy is now well above the levels in 2019 The economy looks well-paced to beat more than just Germany in the G7 by year end

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[ Sources: Office for National Statistics | HM Treasury ] Politicians and journalists can contact us for details, as ever.

Brexit Facts4EU.Org, Sat 02 Sept 2023

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