Brexit Britain defies the IMF’s anti-Brexit forecasts and is set to grow – yet again

From recession to growth in one month – IMF globalists are forced to admit reality

Montage © Facts4EU.Org 2023

From -0.3% to +0.4% growth forecast - We hate to say “We told you so”, but…

In common with all other international institutions, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) has consistently been negative about the United Kingdom’s prospects since the public voted to leave the European Union. In fact they were negative before that, but their narrative became even more damning after 2016.

Yesterday, however, the IMF was forced to concede that its forecast in April that the UK would enter a period of recession has had to be rescinded. In one month it has had to increase its forecast by 0.7%. That’s huge in terms of these forecasts.

The IMF’s statement yesterday

“This latest forecast represents a 0.7 percentage point upgrade to the IMF’s April World Economic Outlook forecast of -0.3 percent and reflects higher-than-expected resilience in both demand (stronger wage keep-up with inflation, a less contractionary fiscal stance in 2023, and improved confidence amid somewhat reduced post-Brexit uncertainty) and supply (declining energy costs and normalization of global supply chains).”

- IMF, Washington DC, 23 May 2023

Readers will note the IMF’s weak admission of “somewhat reduced post-Brexit uncertainty”.

Brexit Facts4EU.Org Summary

The IMF goes (reluctantly) bullish on Brexit Britain’s prospects

  • IMF’s forecast for UK economy, published Apr 2023 : -0.3%
  • IMF’s forecast for UK economy, published May 2023 : +0.4%

[Source : IMF - United Kingdom: Staff Concluding Statement of the 2023 Article IV Mission, 23 May 2023.]

© Brexit Facts4EU.Org 2023 - click to enlarge

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Who judges the judges?

The Facts4EU.Org team has been reviewing the forecasts of organisations such as the IMF, the OECD, the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR), and the Treasury for seven years. They have all been hopeless. Not even close.

We are uncertain as to who these highly-paid people are and what gives them the right to pontificate on the UK’s prospects. There isn’t a word of apology in the IMF’s statement yesterday. Instead they simply said:

“Buoyed by resilient demand in the context of declining energy prices , the UK economy is expected to avoid a recession and maintain positive growth in 2023.”

- IMF, Washington DC, 23 May 2023

It has to be said that the IMF 'has form' when it comes to inaccurate forecasts

We have previously reported on the IMF's forecasts and how they have been relentlessly wrong and always pessimistic - particularly so since Brexit. Below is a chart we produced some months ago to demonstrate this.

© Brexit Facts4EU.Org 2023 - click to enlarge

Finally, here is the Rt Hon John Redwood MP talking to the Rt Hon Jacob Rees-Mogg MP yesterday

Observations

Is there trouble ahead? Of course

Naturally in their report the IMF go on to warn of all manner of calamities if the UK Government doesn’t do what they advise. If they were any good at their jobs, perhaps they might actually work in government, rather than advise from a sedentary position.

We ‘advise’ the staff working for these organisations to go out and get real jobs for a while. Jobs where you can get fired if your performance is as bad as exhibited by these global institutions. Jobs which actually generate revenue and value.

Once again Brexit Britain is outperforming all expectations. Could HMG please shout this from the rooftops? No? We thought as much.

Mr Sunak, why should we have to report this good news? Why don’t you start firing some heads of Civil Service departments who should be doing this?

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[ Sources: IMF ] Politicians and journalists can contact us for details, as ever.

Brexit Facts4EU.Org, Wed 24 May 2023

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