Anti-Brexit organisations forced to recant on their disastrous forecasts

After 3 months IMF now admits UK will NOT be ‘worst G7 economy this year’

Montage © Facts4EU.Org 2023

The relentlessly anti-Brexit BBC teams must be distraught with news Germany will be last

It is easy to forget the drip-drip feed of anti-Brexit propaganda from the BBC. At Brexit Facts4EU we do not forget. The latest news from the IMF released on Monday (24 Jul 2023) drives a coach and horses through the BBC’s doom-laden reports this year by its Economics Editor Faisal Islam.

The anti-Brexit International Monetary Fund (IMF) has consistently forecast the worst outcomes for Brexit Britain’s economy. Each time it has had to recant some months later, after the damaging forecasts have been made and have been given prominence by the BBC.

Typical examples from the BBC this year

Below we cite two BBC reports this year about the IMF’s forecasts, which once again have been shown to be disastrously wrong. At no point has the BBC ever referred to these types of forecasts having been consistently incorrect. The reader and viewer is left with the impression that these forecasts are reliable and disturbing.

Credit: BBC 2023 - click to enlarge

Here is what the IMF now predicts

Brexit Facts4EU.Org Summary

IMF predictions of GDP for 2023

UK : +0.4%
Germany : -0.3%

[Source: IMF World Economic Outlook July 2023.]

IMF forced to alter UK’s outlook from recession to growth

On Monday (24 Jul 2023) the IMF released its usual July ‘World Economic Outlook’. Each year this follows the one it releases in January.

In January it forecast the UK would be ‘the worst-performing economy’ this year. Here is how the BBC reported this :-

“The UK economy will shrink and perform worse than other advanced economies, including Russia, as the cost of living continues to hit households, the International Monetary Fund has said.”
“The UK is expected be the only country to shrink this year across all the advanced and emerging economies. Even sanctions-hit Russia is now forecast to grow this year.”

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IMF now forecasts Germany to be worst-performing economy in G7, while UK grows

Fast-forward six months and the IMF now says that Germany will be the worst-performing economy in the G7, in recession, and shrinking by -0.3%. Conversely it now expects Brexit Britain’s economy to grow by +0.4% - an upward revision of 0.7% on its previous forecast.

“This is an upward revision of 0.7 percentage point for 2023, reflecting stronger-than-expected consumption and investment from the confidence effects of falling energy prices, lower post-Brexit uncertainty (following the Windsor Framework agreement), and a resilient financial sector as the March global banking stress dissipates.”
- IMF World Economic Outlook July 2023

Readers will note that the IMF could not resist mentioning “post-Brexit uncertainty” and the Windsor Framework – as if the Windsor Framework has any serious impact on GDP. Its impact is primarily on sovereignty.

Observations

Regular readers know that we prefer to report facts rather than forecasts, unlike the Rejoiners. Occasionally, however, we feel forced to point out the effect which continual reporting of erroneous forecasts have on public morale.

The IMF’s economic predictions for Brexit Britain’s fortunes have been relentlessly negative – and wrong. In this, they are no different to the Treasury, the OBR, the OECD, and other organisations. Naturally the BBC has been reporting enthusiastically each time a negative forecast comes out.

The problem for all these organisations – and for the BBC – is that each time these forecasts have been proven to have been hopelessly pessimistic. Frequently the positive outcomes have forced reverses within a few months of them being published. Brexit Britain has defied the doom-mongers every time.

Yes, the UK’s growth this year will certainly be sub-optimal but Germany’s outlook – and therefore, as the EU’s largest economy by far, that of the EU – is looking poor.

Is it not time to question the political motivations of those economists who have produced these grossly erroneous forecasts for the UK, in the same way that Nigel Farage has successfully challenged the political motivations of those leading the NatWest Group?

We must get reports like this out there

Reports like the one above take far longer to research, write and produce than many people realise. If they were easy, readers would see other organisations also producing these daily. However, there’s little point in the Facts4EU.Org team working long hours, seven days-a-week, if we lack the resources to promote them effectively – to the public, to MPs, and to the media. This is where you come in, dear reader.

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[ Sources: IMF | BBC ] Politicians and journalists can contact us for details, as ever.

Brexit Facts4EU.Org, Thurs 27 Jul 2023

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Reader Comments 14

1. Captain Thunderbolt , Thursday, July 27, 2023, 05:42:

yes, it will be business as usual for the remain/rejoin brigade.
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Always with the negative waves, Moriarty!!
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What I always tell people is I don't care if the UK is the worst performing economy as long as its growing and people are not losing their jobs or can get another job than if a business falls over. it's not Brexit that makes a business fail it's how its run and profitable it is. No point turning over millions if you don't turn a profit.

2. Sparky , Thursday, July 27, 2023, 06:06:

Recent news: “The majority of Britons would vote to rejoin the EU, with more than 60 per cent believing Brexit to have been more of a failure than a success, according to a new poll”

3. Old Albion , Thursday, July 27, 2023, 06:27:

Sparky: That 'poll' really says, Britons are disappointed with the current governments failure to exploit all the opportunities afforded by Brexit.
If we can get a Gov. in place that does the job, that 'poll' will quickly change.
Unfortunately the Conservatives and their likely replacements Labour, are two virtually identical political parties. Clueless.

4. Gazzablack , Thursday, July 27, 2023, 06:48:

2, Sparky
Recent survey shows 7 in 10 young in Ireland (18 - 24 year olds) are considering moving abroad for a better quality of life.

5. Have You Wondered , Thursday, July 27, 2023, 07:48:

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Well - whatever the predictions of all the alphabet organisations - here is a touch of reality from the sunlit uplands of the EU.
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(I'd like to post the sources as evidence and to save a lot of text - but that might upset the management - you'll have to look it up. Just thought - strange F4EU can do it but not subscribers....? Anyway...)
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Back to reality...
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"Energy market experts have suggested that Europe's industrial base may now be in "irreversible" decline. They argue that the continent's recent decrease in energy consumption is the result of broad-scale deindustrialisation rather than a sign of a more energy-efficient future. "
.
" rust belt on the rhine the deindustrialization of germany "
.
" eurozone demand for business loans at its lowest level since 2003"
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"waffling in debt belgium borrows at record levels as interest rates soar"
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" busted belgium bankruptcies soar to highest levels since 2018"
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"coastal hotels report fewer bookings this year for national holiday weekend"
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"the roof is on fire at vw as ceo tells managers to find 11 billion in savings"
.
" belgian startups and scale ups hit rock bottom in funding"
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"recession fears as office real estate investments at all time low in brussels"
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"breaking point bankruptcies in eu reach historic highs"
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" bankruptcies increase across belgium flanders registers new record"
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That's the end of this episode from the rusty sunlit uplands of the EU.
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And - it's all down to Brexit !
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6. Have You Wondered , Thursday, July 27, 2023, 07:58:

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Off topic but very worthy of advertising is an article in a prominent and respected Politic(o) news outlet about Nigel Farage running politics from the sideline. Worth a read.
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Search: "Why Britain still can’t stop talking about Nigel Farage "
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If only the govt. had Farages backbone......
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7. Ashley Great Britain , Thursday, July 27, 2023, 08:25:

2 sparky.
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Very childish and utter cow pat.
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The Imf and bbc are desperate to see Britain with low performance.
The Imf stating the Windsor framework proves their political allegiance but the reverse is true, The UK would be far better off without it.
We are limping on despite the framework! As with most thing's it's the biased, Corrupt, Deceitful establishment's that are the problem, Not Brexit.
The level of negativity and deception against Britain from all angles is chilling.
In the coming days I look forward to the BBC telling the truth again and again about how Germany is failing.

8. NH , Thursday, July 27, 2023, 09:26:

It's interesting to see that the BBC has 434,000 less licenses this year despite the fact the population is increasing. It's living on borrowed time, as soon as the government introduces a level playing field it will have to change radically or suffer a gradual or maybe rapid demise.
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2. Sparky , "The majority of Britons would vote to rejoin the EU"
What you and your manipulator friends are really saying is "when uninformed of the details the majority of Britons would vote to rejoin the EU"
If you were to add a tick box option to the survey saying:
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I would first want to know how much rejoining the EU would cost me.
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Do you think this would change the survey result ? Or do you believe people struggling to pay the rent, or mortgage, facing high energy costs and high food costs would not be interested in this.

9. Gazzablack , Thursday, July 27, 2023, 10:15:

Ouch!
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The IMF's prediction of a 0.3% decline in the UK's GDP is true for GERMANY not Britain.

10. LuxuryBalloon , Thursday, July 27, 2023, 16:32:

Germany’s economy was always going into free-fall when Putin turned off the gas taps. The question that is lingering in my mind: is Brexit Britain’s economy doing better than forecasted because we have a BRINO? Would Brexit Britain’s economy still flourish if we had gone WTO?

14 comments, page 1 of 2

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