Are the UK’s red lines with the EU turning a light shade of pink?

Signs point to HM Government capitulations to the EU over sovereignty and Brexit

Montage © Facts4EU.Org

All the mood music from Whitehall suggests UK will remain a divided country

For close observers of the Brexit political scene, ominous writing started appearing on the walls in recent weeks, culminating in an alarming statement at the Conservative Party conference last week.

Currently a part of the United Kingdom is ruled over by an unaccountable and unelected Commission and a foreign court over whose laws and decisions a significant proportion of the United Kingdom population have no say.

No other country in the world would accept the jurisdiction of a foreign court over its citizens. De facto, the UK does not have full sovereignty and is not a fully-independent country. Below we present just three pieces of evidence, indicating a climbdown to the EU by HM Government is imminent.

Evidence – Exhibit No.1 – The Hillsborough meeting, UK-RoI, September 2022

Late last month the UK Secretary of State hosted the ultra-nationalist Irish Foreign Minister Simon Coverney TD at Hillsborough Castle.

Following the meeting Mr Heaton-Harris said the following:-

“We have had a fantastic conversation. We are going through some of the very important issues that face us both. Our joint top priority is doing everything we can to ensure an executive is re-established before an election has to be called.”
Simon Coveney subsequently told the Irish state broadcaster RTE that Mr Baker :-
“has recognised that some of his contributions towards solving Brexit problems haven’t been helpful.”

All press reports indicated a significant “warming” in relations.

Evidence – Exhibit No.2 – Abject apology to the EU and to the Republic of Ireland

The Rt Hon Steve Baker MP was once the Chairman of the pro-Brexit ERG group of MPs. He is now a Minister in the Northern Ireland Office.

Despite his Brexiteer past, at last week’s Conservative Party conference Mr Baker made an abject apology to both the EU and the Republic of Ireland for the UK’s behaviour.

Sitting alongside the Secretary of State for Northern Ireland Chris Heaton-Harris, Mr Baker said:

“It’s with humility that I want to accept and acknowledge that I and others did not always behave in a way which encouraged Ireland and the European Union to trust us to accept that they have legitimate interests.”
The Rt Hon Steve Baker MP, Birmingham, 04 Oct 2022

Evidence – Exhibit No.3 – Red lines turning light pink

Finally, we have the statements made by Steve Baker on Friday.

“We’re going to some considerable lengths to create an atmosphere of friendship and willingness to make progress, recognising one another's legitimate interests.”
Putin’s illegal invasion and the energy crisis are now being used as the excuses.

“What’s changed? Everyone can see this is an incredibly serious moment for both of our countries, an incredibly serious moment for the European Union, all of Europe. The whole dynamic of politics in Europe has been radically transformed by the war in Ukraine, the energy crisis and other issues.
“At such a time, we need transformation in our relationships. We are trying to rise to the burden of responsibility that is on our shoulders.”

And here’s the cruncher :-

"We don't really want to be discussing red lines. We know what our red lines are. You need to get into a negotiation and solve this problem."

Observations

Sovereignty is like virginity. A country either has it or it doesn’t. There is no half-way house.

The Facts4EU.Org team does understand that most readers have no specific relationship with Northern Ireland, but we are sure they understand the totemic significance of what may be about to happen in the next few weeks. It now seems likely that the UK Government will settle for changes to the trade arrangements between GB and NI.

If these negotiations result in a foreign power still controlling part of the United Kingdom with its laws and its courts, then this is unacceptable.

If it results in the continued breaking of the Belfast (Good Friday) Agreement by the EU, then this is unacceptable.

If it results in any form of continued surrender of sovereignty of the United Kingdom as a whole to the EU, this is unacceptable.

If we are wrong and the Government stands firm, we will issue an abject apology like the one issued by Mr Baker to the EU and the Republic of Ireland. Unfortunately we doubt we will have to do this.

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[ Sources: Northern Ireland Office | Conservative Party conference | Irish media ] Politicians and journalists can contact us for details, as ever.

Brexit Facts4EU.Org, Sun 09 Oct 2022

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Reader Comments 10

1. Adam , Sunday, October 09, 2022, 06:17:

I can see another another may in truss . All we have to do is to stop selling gas to the EU

2. Sparky , Sunday, October 09, 2022, 09:13:

The Good Friday Agreement was only possible because the UK and the Republic of Ireland were both within the EU and single market. The protocol has been a smudge that was never intended to be honoured by the liars in the Conservative party. Economically Northern Ireland is one of the strongest performing areas of the UK because it is still in the EU single market. Following pressure from the USA the British Government seems to be understanding that it needs to compromise to settle the issue. Sadly and as a direct result of Brexit I fear that in the next few years the outcome will be an Irish referendum and unification of Northern and Southern Ireland. This will mean that the UK, or United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland will no longer exist.

3. William Davison , Sunday, October 09, 2022, 10:14:

As someone who actually lives in N.I., I would say that what is now happening is essentially the start of a process to tease out joint sovereignty between the EU and the UK and any hope of myself and others retaining our full and equal UK citizenship is rapidly draining away. Click on the TUV Party website and read Jim Allister's short article, "Talks that don't address the sovereignty grab of the Protocol can't deliver." The ineptitude and negligence of the UK government and successive Prime Ministers since 2016 has been depressing, the EU and Irish government must be pleasantly surprised by how easy it has been to achieve their aims. A government which has been rightly prepared to support a state on the other side of Europe, has not been prepared to defend the sovereignty, territorial and trading integrity of its own state and has demolished the Good Friday Agreement and effectively repealed part of the Act of Union to facilitate that process. But they have made their choice, meaning there will be no devolved government in NI, open-ended instability, with a substantial proportion of the population furious that they have been forced, against their will, into living in an eternal limboland .

4. Jane Powell , Sunday, October 09, 2022, 11:04:

I am sorry to say that you are entirely correct William Davison. I raised this in a public session with Lord Frost recently. His response was that strenuous efforts ‘had’ been made and he reminded me not to dismiss the vote in Northern Ireland in 2024 which he felt was often forgotten about. To our great disadvantage we are ‘championed’ in these negotiations by a shifting succession of ministers who arrive to the brief knowing and understanding little of Northern Ireland and are hence reliant on and guided by civil servants in the Northern Ireland Office ( rather than the other way round) and for whom there are no long term consequences to political careers or their lives. I see also that the Republic of Ireland team has remained largely unchanged (also in opportunistic and ideological fervour) throughout. It cannot be acceptable that any population in a western democracy is subject to laws over which those citizens have no say through representative democracy. That is what the current Conservative - and Unionist- Party has done to the people of Northern Ireland. NB if NI leaves the union surely Scotland is next. Where does that leave England on the world stage? Northern Ireland reader.

5. John Hardman , Sunday, October 09, 2022, 11:57:

All bending over backwards again for the beloved EU.
Conservative have lost my vote now.
Time to give it to Mr Tice.

6. William Davison , Sunday, October 09, 2022, 12:54:

Yes, I think the Northern Ireland Office might be more accurately named "The Office for shifting NI out of the UK" and the current Chair of the Commons NI Select Committee (Simon Hoare) usually sounds more like a member of Sinn Fein, or the Irish government, than a member of the Conservative and Unionist Party. The latter label should be removed as it clearly no longer applies to NI.

7. LuxuryBalloon , Sunday, October 09, 2022, 14:45:

It would be very disappointing if Brexit will results in some parts of the UK being separated from the rest.

8. jon livesey , Sunday, October 09, 2022, 16:39:

7. LuxuryBalloon , Yes, it would be disappointing, but we conceded that point when we signed the GFA and made the decision on Irish unification entirely the responsibility of the NI voter. The UK can recommend the Union and point out its advantages, but in the end we have said that the NI voter makes the decision, and presumably that means they make the decision entirely on the basis of advantage to NI, not advantage to the UK.
In other words, any talk of "betrayal" is nonsense. It's not a betrayal to tell someone "You decide on the basis of what you think is right for you". NI does not *have* to vote for unification, and if you ask me they would be foolish to make a change that could lead to serious violence and which cannot be undone. My opinion - which does not matter -is that everyone is being in far too much of a hurry. If unification is a good idea today, and I am not sure it is, it will still be a good idea in fifty year's time.
And if unification is not a good idea today - mainly because it's a hasty merging of two very different societies with long traditions of political violence very different to anything we have seen in the rest of the UK for centuries - then there is a chance it will be a less bad idea in fifty years.
Anyone who imagines that Unification "must" be a good idea, or that everything has to come out right in the end, only has to look around the World to see that simply is not so. I don't think we want to be yet another generation that is sure it has "fixed" Ireland, only to find that we have made things worse.

9. Peter Gee , Sunday, October 09, 2022, 18:02:

Baker and Truss are trying a different approach - one of conciliation - and a different approach is what she promised before and after her election to PM. As she said in the hustings, whether Macron (and the EU) are friends is yet to be seen. If the new strategy fixes the problems with illegal boat people, the NI protocol, the border product blockages, etc etc by producing acceptable solutions then it will be welcome. The results will be either acceptable or not, and this is the crux. We must wait for the results to be put to us.

10. Adam , Sunday, October 09, 2022, 22:37:

There is only one option hear and that's scotland , Wales . Northern Ireland and yes ENGLAND have a referendum on staying in the UK

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