Goal ! - Brexit Britain’s GDP growth rates top EU’s table since Referendum
As the World Cup starts, we present the official World Bank rankings, for Rejoiners to ponder
Montage © Facts4EU.Org 2022
In the 6 years since the Referendum, UK beats Germany by 4 goals to 2 (and no penalties)
Just as the football World Cup is about to kick off in Qatar, Facts4EU.Org looks at the scores for Brexit Britain since the EU Referendum, comparing the UK’s annual GDP growth rates with the EU’s three largest economies : Germany, France and Italy.
Rejoiners might find this surprising, but the United Kingdom tops the table and hoists the trophy. Given the world’s biggest sporting tournament about to start, we felt it appropriate to use the World Bank’s official data.
Brexit Facts4EU.Org Summary
The Facts4EU.Org league tables – annual GDP growth
Latest official scores from the World Bank since the EU Referendum
© Brexit Facts4EU.Org 2022 - click to enlarge
The UK beat Germany in the rankings in four out of the last six years, including last year.
The UK's economy grew faster than the EU's top 3 last year, and faster than any other G7 country.
[Source: World Bank national accounts data, and OECD National Accounts data files.]
© Brexit Facts4EU.Org 2022 - click to enlarge
Brexit Britain also outperformed George Osborne's GDP 'Project Fear' forecasts
When looking at GDP since the EU Referendum it is also worth reminding ourselves what we were threatened with if we voted to leave the European Union. Most readers will still have vivid memories of the apocalyptic forecasts from the then Chancellor George Osborne, his HM Treasury, and the Bank of England.
The Treasury produced a 201-page long-term impact forecast on 18 April, followed by a 90-page short-term "immediate impact" forecast on 23 May 2016. Below we focus on the latter as it was released just 30 days before the British public voted and was heavily promoted in speeches by George Osborne, David Cameron, and large numbers of Remainer MPs.
George Osborne even referred to a vote to leave being a vote to inflict self-harm on the UK – the equivalent of ”an own goal” in our footballing analogy.
The Rt Hon George Osborne MP, former Chancellor of the Exchequer
"We already know the long-term effects of a vote to leave: Britain would be permanently poorer.
"Now we know the short-term shock too: an economy in recession, major job losses and a self-inflicted blow to living standards and aspirations of the British people."
- George Osborne, 23 May 2016
HM Treasury's report
"A vote to leave would cause an immediate and profound economic shock creating instability and uncertainty which would be compounded by the complex and interdependent negotiations that would follow. The central conclusion of the analysis is that the effect of this profound shock would be to push the UK into recession and lead to a sharp rise in unemployment."
"In the shock scenario, a vote to leave would result in a recession, a spike in inflation and a rise in unemployment. The analysis shows that the economy would fall into recession with four quarters of negative growth. After two years, GDP would be around 3.6% lower in the shock scenario compared with a vote to remain."
- HM Treasury, ‘The immediate economic impact of leaving the EU’, 23 May 2016
What happened to your “immediate recession”, George?
As the World Bank and OECD figures above prove, there never was any recession. In 2016 and 2017 the UK economy continued to grow at a rate higher than the long-term average.
In 2018 and 2019 the UK economy kept on growing. The rate was marginally lower than the previous two years, but there was still no Osborne-Cameron recession. It should be noted that Germany’s drop in GDP growth was much greater – and yet Germany hadn’t voted for ‘Dexit’.
Heading the ball into the back of the net
Once again Facts4EU.Org has presented some inconvenient truths for the increasingly well-funded Rejoin campaigns to try to explain away. We have done this as the ‘facts engine’ for the Rebuttal Unit of CIBUK.Org.
Rejoiners (in the campaign organisations and in the BBC and other broadcast media) are constantly referring to the UK’s economy not having recovered to its pre-Covid levels – as if Brexit caused Covid.
The economic damage caused by the Government’s Covid policies has absolutely nothing to do with the British people’s decision to leave the EU. It seems extraordinary that we have to point this out but these days it seems we must.
Brexit Britain wins the tournament and lifts the cup – but the next one won’t be so easy
Following the Hunt-Sunak-OBR “poverty budget” on Thursday, we are pessimistic that Brexit Britain can maintain its winning status in the next few years. We very much hope we are proved wrong. If we are right, however, it will have nothing to do with Brexit but rather with the Government’s economic policies and with the absence of the delivery of the Brexit benefits we wrote about yesterday.
Tomorrow we will deliver our devastating indictment of the record of forecasting on which the Government decides economic policy. As readers will find out, our report today has considerable relevance to the decisions arising from the Autumn Statement which Jeremy Hunt delivered three days ago.
We must get reports like this out there
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[ Sources: World Bank | OECD | HM Treasury | George Osborne ] Politicians and journalists can contact us for details, as ever.
Brexit Facts4EU.Org, Sun 20 Nov 2022
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