The UK will be the fastest-growing economy in the G7 again this year, says OECD
Brexit Britain is set to beat USA, Germany, France, Italy, Japan and Canada
Montage © Facts4EU.Org 2022
Despite this good news, yesterday the anti-Brexit BBC was at it again
Today Facts4EU.Org counters yet another BBC attack piece on the UK’s fortunes. Choppy waters may lie ahead but economic forecasting does not have a good track record – something the BBC failed to mention.
We present the OECD’s forecast for this year and ask: “Will the UK’s state broadcaster ever stop talking the country down?”
Brexit Facts4EU.Org Summary
Brexit Britain tops the table of G7 major economies for predicted economic growth in 2022
- United Kingdom : 4.43%
- Italy : 3.70%
- Canada : 3.25%
- France : 2.55%
- United States : 1.85%
- Germany : 1.77%
- Japan : 1.57%
[Source: OECD official forecast, 22 Nov 2022.]
© Brexit Facts4EU.Org 2022 - click to enlarge
The BBC’s story – and an important fact it kept from its audience
Yesterday (22 Nov 2022) the BBC once again revelled in a gloomy forecast from the OECD about the UK’s growth prospects. And once again Facts4EU.Org - together with the Rebuttal Unit of CIBUK.Org - gives readers some perspective on the BBC’s story.
The BBC wrote its report following the publication by the Paris-based OECD of its November report on economic prospects for its members and for other major countries.
The UK came out top in the OECD’s predictions for economic growth amongst the G7 countries this year. The BBC’s headline, however, was :
© BBC 2022
The BBC did not once mention that the OECD expects the UK to be the fastest-growing economy in the G7 in 2022.
What else did the BBC fail to mention?
The Facts4EU.Org team has years of experience looking in detail at forecasts and spreadsheets. With this experience comes a very basic lesson learnt. Some forecasters get things very wrong indeed – and many of them do so consistently, year after year.
On Monday we published a report asking “Could the Hunt-Sunak poverty budget be based on a ‘dodgy (and anti-Brexit) dossier’?” In it we provided evidence of just how badly the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) gets its forecasts wrong.
The BBC’s doom-laden headline yesterday was about the OECD, not the OBR, so we thought readers might wish to know some equivalent facts about the OECD’s equally lamentable performance in judging Brexit Britain and predicting its economic fortunes.
Brexit Facts4EU.Org Summary
The OECD’s poor record in forecasting Brexit Britain’s economic performance
1. What the BBC chose not to tell its audience – OECD’s growth forecasts
- Dec 2020 OECD forecast for 2021 : 4.2%
- The UK’s actual GDP growth for 2021 : 7.5%
- Sept 2022 OECD forecast for 2022 : 3.4%
- Two months later it’s now : 4.4%
[Sources: OECD official forecasts 2020-2022 and economist Julian Jessop – see below.]
FYI, in December 2020 the #OECD was forecasting that the #UK economy would grow by 4.2% in 2021. The outturn was 7.5%.— Julian Jessop (@julianHjessop) November 22, 2022
Just two months ago (September) it was forecasting UK growth of 3.4% for 2022. Now it's 4.4%.
Still, I'm sure its 2023 and 2024 forecasts will be spot on... 😉
2. The OECD’s forecasting record overall
Every year the Sunday Times’ Economics Editor publishes a table of 34 economic forecasting organisations, showing how well their forecasts compared to what actually happened that year.
They are each given a score out of 10, based on their forecasts of various key economic metrics. Here are the 2021 results.
- OBR : 2 out of 10 (No.18 out of 34)
- EU Commission : 1 out of 10 (No.30 out of 34)
- OECD : 1 out of 10 - Second to last (No.33 out of 34)
[Source: David Smith, Economics Editor, The Sunday Times, 2021 results table.]
“There may be trouble ahead…”
Once again the hard facts we and CIBUK.Org have revealed put a sword to the persistent negativism of the Rejoiner campaigns and the BBC about the effect of Brexit on the United Kingdom.
No-one is saying that the economic future for next year is rosy – far from it. The OECD forecasts that the UK’s economy will drop by 0.4% and Germany’s by 0.3%. They might be right, but based on the OECD’s past record we wouldn’t place a bet on these numbers being accurate. There is no doubt, however, that there may be trouble ahead.
The main thing to stress is that with Germany virtually alongside the UK in the OECD’s table for negative growth, Brexit cannot be used as the culprit.
Now is the time to take an axe to EU regulations still holding us back
If ever there were a time for freeing up British business to grow and generate growth, it is surely now. An important step would be for the Government to announce a monthly target number of EU laws to be repealed.
Most of the EU’s laws and regulations in relation to business were designed for other EU member countries and were wholly unsuitable for the UK. For there to have been next to no progress on this, more than six years after we voted to leave the European Union, is a disgrace.
The anti-growth budget
The other major consideration is of course the Hunt-Sunak budget and its tax-raising agenda on businesses and on those who generate wealth and employment for the country.
As one new donor told us by email yesterday: ”Great facts. Keep the truth coming to protect us all from these ridiculous tax rises which stifle aspirations to create small business.”
And finally, we must keep our British sense of humour….
The Facts4EU.Org team feels fairly confident in forecasting that tomorrow will be a Thursday. We do sometimes wonder if some of the organisations predicting our future would even get that right.
We must get reports like this out there
Reports like the one above take far longer to research, write and produce than many people realise. If they were easy, readers would see other organisations also producing these daily.
However, there’s little point in the Facts4EU.Org team working long hours, seven days-a-week, if we lack the resources to promote them effectively – to the public, to MPs, and to the media. This is where you come in, dear reader.
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[ Sources: OECD | Julian Jessop | Sunday Times ] Politicians and journalists can contact us for details, as ever.
Brexit Facts4EU.Org, Wed 23 Nov 2022
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