UK rocks G7 with best economic growth for 80 years

Bullish Brexit Britain bounces back with 7.5% jump in GDP

Montage © Facts4EU.Org 2022

Thanks to Omicron Quarter 4 GDP finished fairly flat – it’s time to release the hounds and use Brexit to bound ahead of the pack

The latest economic figures from the Office of National Statistics are out and there is much to cheer about. Nevertheless this must be coupled with a cold shower to remind us that much more has to be done for the country to fully recover. We report on the data below.

Economist Julian Jessop commented:

“The claim that the UK was the fastest growing G7 economy in 2021 is factually correct, as is the claim that independent forecasters (including the IMF) expect the UK to repeat this performance in 2022.

We can argue about the significance of these claims, but both are true.”

“The UK economy did grow much more quickly than expected in 2021: the average of independent forecasts for growth at the start of last year was only 4.5%, and this consensus presumably did take account of the slump in 2020… a Financial Times survey of nearly 100 economists, published in January 2021, revealed that:

”‘Most of them expect the size of the economy not to return to pre-pandemic levels until the third quarter of 2022, despite the expectation of a strong consumer-led rebound from the rollout of the coronavirus vaccine. Increased unemployment, bankruptcies and the impact of Brexit are expected to limit the pace of the recovery.’

“It therefore seems a bit rich for some economists to dismiss the rapid growth in 2021 as a ‘dead cat bounce’ when it was much better than the lacklustre recovery they had predicted.”

Economist Julian Jessop, Capx, Friday 11 February 2022

Brexit Facts4EU.Org Summary

UK annual economic growth leads the G7

A strong recovery in the UK's first Brexit year

The UK’s GDP increased by an estimated 7.5% in 2021, following a 9.4% fall in 2020. This recovery was ahead of the world’s other leading world economies.

This was despite a fairly flat fourth quarter delivering only 1.0% growth – with a big impact caused by Omicron fears and restrictions dampening economic activity compared to the same quarter in 2020 which enjoyed looser restrictions until Christmas itself.

UK gross domestic product (GDP) is estimated to have increased by 1.0% in Quarter 4 (Oct to Dec) 2021, following a downwardly revised 1.0% increase in Quarter 3 (July to Sept).

No room for complacency

Complacency cannot be allowed when it is considered that, according to the ONS, “in output terms, the largest contributors to this quarterly increase were from human health and social work activities driven by increased GP visits at the start of the quarter, and a large increase in coronavirus (COVID-19) testing and tracing activities and the extension of the vaccination programme."

In net trade, excluding non-monetary gold, household consumption made the largest positive contribution to growth – reflecting the run-up to the Christmas festivities.

The level of quarterly GDP in Quarter 4 2021 is now 0.4% below its pre-coronavirus level (Quarter 4 2019). Monthly estimates published by the ONS yesterday showed GDP fell by 0.2% in the quarter’s final month of December 2021 but for all that has achieved its pre-coronavirus level (February 2020).

Observations

There is good news and bad news following the release of the latest ONS data about the UK’s economic performance. The good news is considerable; it’s not just that the UK had the best performance of the G7 (which is a great achievement in itself) because this is tempered by the fact the UK also had the worst GDP crash of the G7 in the pandemic – it’s that the anti-Brexit Blob (led into battle by the Financial Times) thought it would not be until Autumn this year that we would be where we are now. Take that, Kerpow!

Our Omicron Christmas

There is also good news that can be found even in the rather flat last quarterly figure and poor December figure when one takes account of how the impact of the scare that was put out by the arrival of Omicron. It didn’t need a lockdown for families and businesses to cancel their arrangements for parties, lunches and dinners – they cancelled them themselves so that they might not contract the virus and have to miss Christmas get-togethers with their families. It was a self-imposed lockdown that hit the hospitality sector hard at its most lucrative time of the year. All things being well the final quarter of this year should see a healthy level of growth.

And all of that is, let’s be honest – despite Brexit – because while we have been going through the long drawn out adjustment to Brexit we have not yet fully realised the benefits of the opportunities that lay before us. What is being achieved now is rather like having a hand tied behind our backs!

Our resolve must remain strong

It has also been achieved while our own self confidence as a country might have been sapped, might have been destroyed as the fifth columnists among us that wish to transfer our independence back to unelected commissars in Brussels have constantly done our country down.

The bad news is not so much what’s in the data as what’s not in it – and what can’t be. We know of the coming threat of inflation which is not the worst in the G7 (it’s worse in the US and Germany) which is in part due to the QE used for the pandemic response – but more important is that hand of ours still tied behind our backs. We need to untie it – instead the Government wishes to saddle the country with more taxes rather than go for growth by cutting marginal rates and finding deregulation.

Brexit gives this country a huge opportunity. It is at times like these when we really need growth to help the poorest in society that we can ‘blow the bl**dy doors off’. What is the Government waiting for? That Bulldog spirit is needed. Release the hounds!

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[ Sources:UK Office for National Statistics | OECD | Julian Jessop, Capx] Politicians and journalists can contact us for details, as ever.

Brexit Facts4EU.Org, Saturday, 12 February, 2022

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Reader Comments 3

1. Kevin N , Saturday, February 12, 2022, 08:03:

I'm expecting some party pooper rejoiners to turn up eventually, when they manage to get up.

2. Have You Wondered , Saturday, February 12, 2022, 10:04:

Have You Wondered about the sentence "UK also had the worst GDP crash of the G7 in the pandemic" ?
.
Not sure I understand that arguement as no matter how low we went, is it not a great achievement that the UK sprang back and beyond in such a short time?
.
As an analogy, if Hamilton had to make a penalty pit stop and came back out to win by shear good driving, would that be classed as a failure?
.

3. jon livesey , Saturday, February 12, 2022, 19:13:

2. Have You Wondered : Good point, and by the way, the "worst crash" claim is largely a case of how you do your accounting. For example, we add a component to the GDP to represent the NHS based on what services it provides, while most EU countries do it based on health services wages. So in an emergency such as Covid they keep adding health services wages to GDP, while we add a smaller component based on the NHS being forced to provide fewer normla services while it is distracted by the pandemic.
The media never get around to explaining things like that, because it would spoil their "Britain always worst" narrative.

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