Observations

Canada deal offers mid to long-term economic gains

Firstly, had the United Kingdom still been a member of the EU, no trade talks with Canada would have been possible. EU member countries are specifically forbidden from agreeing trade deals – only the lumbering EU Commission can do this. The deals the Commission made did not suit the UK economy and came at a tortoise-like pace, often taking a decade or more.

The opportunities available to the UK in striking a new deal with Canada are more likely to come from the UK becoming a closer trading partner, as Canada’s is a growing economy. Its GDP is anticipated to increase between 2019 and 2035 by almost 30% in real terms. This would be faster than advanced economies more widely, which are expected to only grow by around 25% over the same timeframe.

Likewise, in the same period the Canadian import market is projected to increase by 45% in real terms. UK exporters will certainly want a piece of this. The difference will be in what opportunities can be negotiated to allow more financial and professional services to blossom – where the UK’s export strength lies.

The weakness of EU trade deals is that they focus on manufactured goods that benefit primarily Germany and France. The rollover trade deal between the UK and Canada obviously followed this model. They rarely offered any benefits in services. It is the opportunity to reorientate these existing deals into something more suited to the UK’s strengths that offers real opportunity.

What’s in it for Canada?

On the other side of the coin Canada is said to be interested in gaining access for its hormone-fed beef. This may be a negotiating feint simply to gain greater quota access for non-hormone-fed beef. Even if it’s not, the key must be that whatever is allowed to be imported must allow the British farmers to adopt the same quality standards too.

The winner in all of this could then be the British consumer who could obtain better quality beef from both British and Canadian farmers, at lower prices. Trade deals should not just be about increasing British exports but also about driving down consumer prices at home. This aspect of trade negotiations is too often forgotten.

Discovering such details unreported by the other media does not come cost free…

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