Observations

Unworthy of France

The petulance and outright hostility being shown by President Macron’s French government towards Brexit Britain now seems to know no bounds.

Unable to persuade the EU that the UK has acted unreasonably, (and goodness knows, the EU normally needs little encouragement for this view), the French are now acting unilaterally. Perhaps they are hoping to ‘bounce’ the EU into supporting them.

By saying they will block British boats from French ports, rigorously inspecting all British boats legally in French waters, and clogging up the normal supply of British goods into France, they will be breaking many of the terms of the EU Treaty, the EU-UK Withdrawal Agreement, and the UK-EU Trade and Cooperation Agreement, to say nothing of several aspects of international law.

The secondary actions they are planning, including the cutting of power supplies which are contained in international supply contracts, simply beggar belief.

President Macron seems to want to create a foreign war to deflect attention from problems at home

History is full of examples of leaders in trouble at home, who see a foreign conflict as a way of distracting voters’ minds from their poor performance. In Emmanuel Macron’s case, he faces an election in April next year and his popularity ratings are not good.

What better target than Perfidious Albion, the old enemy? Attacking ‘Les Rosbifs’ is always going to play well in many parts of the French public, just as many parts of the British public don’t mind seeing the French in trouble. Perhaps a difference is that the British often do this in a humorous spirit, rather than a hostile one.

In his young protégé Clément Beaune President Macron has the perfect ‘attack puppy’ – someone oblivious to any damage he might do to France’s reputation in the EU and around the world and seemingly 100% loyal to his master in the Elysée Palace.

The French-EU connection…

If traditional anglo-french rivalry is one part of Monsieur Macron thinking - that a British spat will help his poll ratings - we suggest there may be another aspect at play here. The French President has seen how politicians on the right, (who will doubtless stand against him next year), have been doing well on a variety of topics concerning national identity and sovereignty.

Notables in this area are Eric Zemmour and one Michel Barnier, once the darling of the EU. In recent months Monsieur Barnier has become an extraordinary convert to Brexit thinking. He now wants to close French borders to immigration and to proclaim the French Constitution and laws as having supremacy over EU laws and its European Court of Justice.

In Brussels this amounts to high treason, but it’s playing well with the voters back home and Michel Barnier no longer works for the EU. Observing all of this, perhaps President Macron feels that if the rest of the EU continue to fail to back France in this manufactured conflict with the UK, he can improve his credentials as a man who is standing up for the French Republic.

The only question is: at what cost to France’s reputation?

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