Brexit backlash? World’s sales to UK exceed EU27's for 1st time since records began

EU27’s sales to UK continue to drop fast – now below 50% of all imports

Should the EU27 begin to be worried that its anti-British stance will impact EU27 jobs?

The latest trade bulletin from the UK’s Office for National Statistics covering Q1 (Jan-Mar 2021) contains some very interesting information. Within their commentary is the following:-

“Quarter 1 2021 is the first quarter since records began in January 1997 that imports of goods from non-EU countries are higher than from EU countries.”
- Quarterly bulletin on UK trade, ONS, 12 May 2021

In what follows, we have analysed official trade data going back to January 2019, before Covid and before the United Kingdom left the European Union. Specifically we looked at one key question.

Is Brexit Britain now buying less from the EU, compared to what it buys from the Rest of the World?

The answer is: YES

Brexit Facts4EU.Org Summary

Two years of falling UK purchases from the EU27

In Q1 2019, 55.9% of all the imported goods we bought came from the EU27
In Q1 2020, 52.9% of all the imported goods we bought came from the EU27
In Q1 2021, 48.7% of all the imported goods we bought came from the EU27

[Source: Office for National Statistics, Trade Bulletin published May 2021, and previous bulletins.]

The simple fact is that the UK is buying less and less from the EU27, and more and more from the Rest of the World

The trend we have shown above is interesting – both in terms of the latest quarter’s figures but also when looking at the fall over the past two years.

Short-term:The last three months’ figures show that the EU27’s sales to the UK have fallen by a (statistically significant) 4% since the UK finally departed the EU on 31 December 2020. This might partly be explained by some stockpiling carried out by British importers in Q4 2020.

Longer term: What is harder for the EU to explain is why this trend started before the inevitable ‘Brexit effect’. Comparing the first quarter of 2021 with the same quarter two years ago, we see a 7% fall in the proportion of EU27 goods being bought, compared to goods from the Rest of the World.

Facts4EU.Org is considering running a short online poll to test views on buying British.
Please let us know if you would like us to do this.
(And if could donate something to help sponsor this work, we will credit you unless you want to remain anonymous!)

How much is this costing the EU27?

Putting aside percentages, Facts4EU.Org took a snapshot of the total value of the month’s sales to the UK in March 2021 by EU27 countries and non-EU countries (RoW), compared to the pre-Covid days of March 2019.

It is important to stress that this is only a snapshot of one month’s figures and might be wholly unrepresentative, which is why we showed the quarterly figures above. That said, it shows that the fall in sales to the UK by the EU27 cannot be explained simply by Covid.

Brexit Facts4EU.Org Summary

EU27’s monthly sales to UK fell by £7.4 billion, comparing March 2021 to March 2019
Rest of World’s monthly sales increased by £0.4 billion, despite Covid

EU27’s sales to the UK in March 2019: £25.2 bn
EU27’s sales to the UK in March 2021: £17.8 bn (-29.4%)
RoW’s sales to the UK in March 2019: £18.9 bn
RoW’s sales to the UK in March 2021: £19.3 bn (+2.1%)

[Source: Office for National Statistics, Trade Bulletin published May 2021, and previous bulletins.]

Are the British starting to react to the hostile behaviour of the EU to its near-neighbour?

What our second chart above shows is that the total value of imports of goods fell in March 2021 compared to two years earlier. The significant thing is that all the fall was down to buying less from the EU. The UK actually bought more in monetary terms from the Rest of the World, despite Covid.

Observations

For how long can the EU continue to raid its "Treasure Island"?

Over the past few years we have reported that officials in some EU countries (particularly Germany) have referred to the United Kingdom as ‘Treasure Island’. The reason for this is simple. We buy so much from them. Far more than they buy from us, as we have reported in detail many times.

The interesting question now is the extent to which British consumers will react to the hostility of the EU machine to the UK since the EU Referendum and Brexit, by choosing to buy British or non-EU products, in preference to those from the EU27.

Certainly we have been receiving many messages from readers, stating categorically that they will never buy EU27 products whilst the attitude and behaviours of the current EU Commission, EU Council, and EU Parliament continue. This seems to extend from supermarket shopping to cars. We have also heard from business people who tell us that they are now looking to source products globally and to replace EU suppliers.

Facts4EU.Org is considering running a short online poll to test views.
Please let us know if you would like us to do this.
(And if could donate something to help sponsor this work, we will credit you unless you want to remain anonymous.)

Statistics in a Covid climate

In these times of Covid, responsible think-tanks such as Facts4EU.Org try to make sense of data which has naturally been impacted by lockdowns and all the other measures which have consumed our lives since early last year. Normal comparisons from one quarter to the next, or from one year to the next, become unreliable with trade and many other metrics fluctuating wildly.

What we have shown is a clear trend which started before Covid and which pre-dates the UK’s exit from the EU. We could of course have looked merely at the trade figures for Q1 2021 compared to the previous quarter (Q4 2020), but this would have included the period when some British companies were stockpiling ahead of the UK’s full exit from the EU at the end of last year. Unsurprisingly the drop is more severe in this case.

Instead we went back to 2019. Whilst we would still put a note of caution on these figures as a result of all the volatility, two years of data is reasonable. World trade almost everywhere has suffered, but it’s the proportionate relationship between the UK’s purchases from the EU and from the Rest of the World which is perhaps interesting.

Yes, 'ordinary people' CAN make a difference

Many people like you, our readers, have expressed their profound concerns about the current state of democracy and the direction where this great country of ours is headed. Brexit Facts4EU.Org continues to work behind the scenes - in addition to what you read on our website and in social media - to pressure the Government and MPs.

It has always been everyday people like you who made it possible for Facts4EU.Org to exist and to provide this service. We present facts-based research that most of the MSM fails to provide, and through that give a voice to a more common-sense approach that is shared and sought by so many people, still not being heard as it often differs from the 'party line' or 'right thing to say'.

Yes, you can do something and we hope you will. Please help us out with a donation today, so we can keep fighting for a free, truly independent, and sovereign United Kingdom and research and publish facts presented in a way you won't see anywhere else.

We do not have corporate funders, which makes our monthly planning more difficult, but it means we are not directed by a confined number of donors. We only take directions from our widespread readership - most of you very well informed - by listening to things you say.

Please support our work to enable us to carry on with our research and publishing, thank you. We badly need your help. You will not be badgered by us for more funds, unlike some organisations! Quick, secure, and confidential donation links are below this article, or you can use our Donations page here.

[ Sources: UK's Office for National Statistics ] Politicians and journalists can contact us for details, as ever.

Brexit Facts4EU.Org, Sun 30 May 2021

Click here to go to our news headlines

Please scroll down to COMMENT on the above article.
And don't forget to actually post your message after you have previewed it!

Something to say about this? Scroll down for reader comments

Since before the EU Referendum, Brexit Facts4EU.Org
has been the most prolific researcher and publisher of Brexit facts in the world.

Supported by MPs, MEPs, & other groups, our work has impact.

We think facts matter. Please donate today, so that we can continue to ensure a clean Brexit is finally delivered.

Any credit card user

Quick One-off

From £5 - £1,000

Monthly

From £3 per month

Paypal Users Only - Choose amount first

Quick One-off

Monthly

PLEASE NOTE IF YOU WOULD LIKE TO COMMENT : You can write your comment under any existing comments below. After you have clicked to preview your comment, you MUST then click on the CAPTCHA system and send you comment, for it to be published. Thank you!

Reader Comments 13

11. John , Tuesday, June 01, 2021, 07:07:

I am an American with a fondness and respect for the people of the UK.
I believe that the UK voters made a prudent decision to leave the EU that will benefit UK citizens for generations.
It is critical for the security and prosperity of the UK that the government properly manage the Brexit process and support workers and businesses that are negatively impacted as the UK economy transitions to a global trading environment.
The two issues that have been in the news recently involve the Northern Ireland protocol and the UK seafood industry's challenges as they try to continue to access EU markets.
In the US our agriculture has support prices that prevent the farmers from going broke. The government will buy products at this support price and the farmers can at least remain in business. The dairy industry is a good example. Excess milk is made into cheese that is distributed to schools and other government and non profit institutions.
The UK should do the same with seafood until such time as other markets can be developed. This seafood can be distributed to schools, the NHS, and other organizations that assist people in need. Constructing purification facilities and other processing facilities will assist in developing export markets for UK seafood.
The NI protocol seems to be a much more complicated issue. If the EU continues to refuse to collaborate to develop solutions to the problems created by the NI protocol, the government must notify the EU of its intention to withdraw from the UK / EU Brexit agreement and trade with the EU on WTO terms.
The Union must come first. If the current issues that inhibit trade between the UK and NI can not be solved, WTO may be the only solution.

12. Richard Wotsit , Wednesday, June 02, 2021, 18:46:

We never buy anything that knowingly comes from the EU.
OK, maybe we have to go without a few things but the rest of the world will soon fill up the gaps.
Supermarkets, and all other shops will have to source supplies from non EU producers, otherwise, they will have ever increasing mounds of un-saleable goods.
If more and more UK citizens adopt this stance, then the populations of the EU will soon realise we are not going to cow tow to the Bullies of Brussels.

13. Peter Clements , Saturday, June 05, 2021, 20:05:

I and my family actively AVOID any EU products. I am of German descent and it pains me to say that the way Merkel and the German government have strong armed Brussels during this debacle has made me feel ashamed of my heritage.
As for shoe horning Ursula Von De Leyen into her position after she was 'made left' from her ministerial position in the Bund - the German Government - well words fail me.
Then of course you have a convicted criminal in charge of the European Central Bank - Christine Lagarde - judges found her guilty in dodgy business dealings - excellent choice - put a potential fraudster in charge of a bank - who elects these people? Do they have no morals?
As for the survey - most definitely.

13 comments, page 2 of 2

Add comment:

Please note: Your email address is never published unless you choose to enter it.