'The EU won't let us trade normally - either with a deal or on Aussie terms'

‘We won’t even be able to trade like Australia unless we ditch or amend Withdrawal Agreement,’ says Brexit think tank

© Brexit Facts4EU.Org 2020

Government set to break manifesto promises if Boris doesn’t call out EU on its breaches of WA

Major new paper should strike alarm in No.10 – Brexit Facts4EU.Org summary

On Sunday a major new paper was issued by the new Brexit think tank, the CBP, which states that the UK will not even be able to trade like Australia unless it rescinds the EU’s dictatorial Withdrawal Agreement.

Co-written by former Conservative leader the Rt Hon Sir Iain Duncan Smith MP, Chairman of Lawyers for Britain Martin Howe QC, Professor of International Economic Law David Collins, and senior economist Edgar Miller, this new paper presents a chilling picture for the UK unless the Government acts now.

The Rt Hon Sir Iain Duncan Smith MP, talking exclusively to Brexit Facts4EU.Org, said:

“The ability for the UK to trade normally around the world after Brexit like, for example, Australia, must surely be a minimum expectation of the British public come the end of this year.

“Our analysis shows that this can only happen if we deal with the serious deficiencies in the Withdrawal Agreement, if necessary rescinding it. Such action would be entirely reasonable on the grounds of the EU's bad faith and breaches of it since January. We will then truly be able to benefit from the tremendous opportunites ahead for a free, independent, and sovereign United Kingdom.”

Entitled “The ‘Australian Deal’ - Another Impossible Dream”, this new paper follows the successful paper “The EU Deal Unmasked: Twelve Reasons Why the UK Will Fail to Get a Canada-Style Deal”. Readers can view our summary of the last paper and others on this subject here.

Brexit Facts4EU.Org Summary

“The ‘Australian Deal’ - Another Impossible Dream” – by the Centre for Brexit Policy

Unless specific steps are taken to rescind the EU’s Withdrawal Agreement (WA), it will continue to apply to the UK for the long term with debilitating effects on our laws, freedom of action, and sovereignty – with or without a trade deal.

  • The UK will not even be able to trade “on Australian terms” unless the WA is rescinded or amended
  • The Conservatives’ manifesto commitments on Brexit will not be able to be honoured
  • Rescinding the WA must be done before 31 December 2020, or it will be too late

Given the conclusions of this paper, the Government is left with only a single viable option - rejecting the Withdrawal Agreement (WA) and Northern Ireland Protocol (NIP) before 31 December.

You can read the full paper from the CBP here. We thoroughly recommend it.

Is Boris about to tear up the manifesto commitments he made only 11 months ago?

© Conservative Party - General Election Manifesto Dec 2019

As the Centre for Brexit Policy say, “in the absence of an agreement between the UK and the EU, an ongoing presence of the Withdrawal Agreement and Northern Ireland Protocol would make it impossible for the Government to deliver its Manifesto Brexit commitments.”

Page five of the Conservative Party’s 2019 Election Manifesto describes the commitments the Government undertook with regard to Brexit. Here’s what the now Government promised:-

  • Take the whole country out of the EU as one United Kingdom
  • Take us out of the EU's Customs Union, allowing us to set our own tariffs and do our own trade deals
  • Will be a new relationship based on free trade and friendly cooperation, not on the EU’s treaties or EU law
  • There will be no political alignment with the EU
  • End the role of the European Court of Justice

This future relationship will be one that allows us to:

  • Take back control of our laws, our money, our own trade policy
  • And ensure we are in full control of our fishing waters

So what’s the problem?

Unfortunately, as we, the CBP, and others have pointed out, with the WA and NIP (Northern Ireland Protocol) in place it would be impossible to have a normal World Trade Organisation (WTO) relationship with the EU, such as Australia enjoys.

The simple reason is because the WA/NIP imposes EU state aid rules (which supersede WTO subsidies rules) and also imposes special customs/tariff procedures on part of the United Kingdom (Northern Ireland) which the WTO arrangement does not do. The EU’s Withdrawal Agreement also expressly excludes WTO dispute settlement procedures for these issues.

The CBP say that: “The Government is ‘boxed in’ with no viable attractive options, as long as the WA/NIP remains in force. In addition to leaving the UK in a colonial-type relationship with the EU and being unable to realise many of the economic benefits afforded by a true Brexit, the Government could likely experience a strong backlash in the next election from those who provided its current 80 seat majority.”

In other words if you don’t ditch the Withdrawal Agreement, Prime Minister, you’ll be breaking your manifesto promises on which you were elected.

Deal or no deal – revealing the truth

As we have reported many times, most members of the public and most MPs believe that whether the UK leaves the Transition Period at the end of this year with an EU trade deal or not, the UK will be free from the jurisdiction of the European Court of Justice (ECJ) and other EU controls on our laws and sovereignty. This is simply not the case.

What is perhaps even worse is that the sovereignty of the United Kingdom will have been violated by the European Union in Brussels.

The EU has divided the United Kingdom using the Withdrawal Agreement

It seems quite extraordinary, but the EU has succeeded in using Brexit to divide the sovereign territory of the United Kingdom and to assume control of the laws of a significant part of it. Northern Ireland has been part of the UK since 1801, and had in fact been mostly under British control since the 16th century. With the EU’s Withdrawal Act, the EU has effectively split Northern Ireland off from the rest of the UK and taken control of much of its laws and regulations.

Here’s what the CBP paper has to say:-

  • “NI must apply internally all EU single market laws on goods as they now stand and as they are changed by the EU in future; all laws will be under the direct jurisdiction of the EU Commission and ECJ
  • “There are consequent requirements for EU mandated regulatory controls on goods imported into NI from GB to ensure conformity with EU single market rules, even where the goods are not at risk of moving on into EU”
  • “NI will be subject to EU customs control procedures and to EU VAT rules”
  • “NI will be subject to direct EU State aid control by the EU Commission”
  • “aid to businesses in the whole of the UK [will be] subject to [EU] State aid control”

How on earth did we let the EU take our territory without firing a shot in defence?

This has happened because of the disastrous tenure of No.10 by Theresa May from 2016-2019, who led a Remainer, EU-appeaser UK Government backed by a Remainer House of Commons of MPs from the Conservative, Labour, SNP, LibDem, Plaid Cymru and Green parties.

With the backing of MPs who were opposed to the will of the British people expressed in the largest vote in UK history, Mrs May and her Remainer civil servants willingly went along with the EU in its efforts to punish the British people.

We believe that the unelected eurocrats in Brussels never thought they would actually sever Northern Ireland as they have. It is our belief that they saw the N.I. Protocol as being such an appalling instrument that the UK Parliament would somehow ensure that the EU Referendum result would be overturned.

It was only the obstinacy, politicking, and poor strategy of the Remainer MPs which led to May’s version of the Withdrawal Agreement being voted down three times in the House of Commons. This then led to a Conservative leadership election and the ultimate election of Boris Johnson as Prime Minister in December 2019.


The CBP has written another compelling document which defines the EU's imposed, subservient, colony status of the United Kingdom from 31 December 2020, as the UK attempts to spread its wings in the world again.

It really is now time for the Prime Minister and the Government to realise that the British people are not going to be fooled by a fudged trade deal and a Withdrawal Agreement which siphons off part of the sovereign territory of the UK, and imposes EU law on the rest of the UK for generations to come.

We have continuously argued since before the EU Referendum, from deep research of official facts, that the EU has been determined to punish the British people from the moment the EU Referendum result was announced. We further argued that the United Kingdom would never end up with any kind of reasonable deal because the EU would not offer one.

This latest report from the new ‘Centre for Brexit Policy’ is yet another proof that our work and our conclusions over the years were not wrong.

Well over 99% of our readers have never donated to our work. We know that there is a vast amount of Brexit material out there which is free, but most of it is derived from elsewhere (often from us) or is pure opinion. Where do you go to get authoritative, original, and facts-based information? Our mission since before the EU Referendum has been to provide this, resulting in a large readership and a significant following on social media.

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[ Sources: The Centre for Brexit Policy | The Rt Hon Sir Iain Duncan Smith MP ] Politicians and journalists can contact us for details, as ever.

Brexit Facts4EU.Org, Tues 27 Oct 2020

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