The moment Boris showed he hasn't yet recovered
“Half a million deaths” - Seriously, Prime Minister?
© No.10 Downing Street (see below for full video)
Boris still believes the totally discredited “science” from the amorous Prof Lockdown
The Ferguson/Imperial College model on which the Govt’s Covid policies were based has now been discredited everywhere, except at Imperial College London.
The Government based its Coronavirus strategy on the report by the team at Imperial College London led by Professor Ferguson. This was published on 16 March and it changed the course of history in the United Kingdom.
It was Imperial's prediction of 510,000 deaths which caused the Government to reverse its strategy and within days put the entire country into lockdown and put the United Kingdom population under effective house arrest.
Over and again Government Ministers have told the public: “We must follow the science”
© Brexit Facts4EU.Org
The week before last, the team at Imperial finally published their computer model after being asked repeatedly for many, many weeks by other scientists and researchers to do so.
The concept of “peer review” is essential in science but the Imperial model had never been subject to such scruitiny, before it caused the biggest impact on society and the economy ever in peacetime.
The Government’s “science” turns out to be an Imperial turkey
The Imperial team were highly reluctant to publish, because the code behind their model was many years out of date, poorly constructed, and contained catastrophic bugs. They then spent weeks with a team from Microsoft, rewriting the code before they published it almost two weeks ago. (In other words it wasn’t even the mess on which the Government’s lockdown was based – it had been vastly ‘improved’ compared to the first version on which the Government's strategy was decided.)
And STILL Imperial’s model turned out to be so bad that it has left the professional mathematical modelling community stunned.
As many of us suspected, the model is to all intents and purposes useless. (Mathemeticians, coders, modellers, and scientists might prefer the term “unreliable”.)
Can Boris REALLY still be “following the science” from this discredited Imperial model?
Unfortunately it seems that he is. In his televised speech to the nation yesterday evening he said the following:-
Brexit Facts4EU.Org Summary
Key excerpt from the PM's speech to the nation yesterday
“It is a fact that by adopting those measures we prevented this country from being engulfed by what could have been a catastrophe in which the reasonable worst case scenario was half a million fatalities.”
- Statement by Rt Hon Boris Johnson MP, Prime Minister, Sun 10 May 2020
It was the Imperial model’s predictions of over half a million deaths from Coronavirus which persuaded the Government to change course and impose a severe lockdown on the country.
Brexit Facts4EU.Org has asked a prominent political figure to write an article on the lockdown and on what should happen next. We hope that this important article will be ready for readers in the next day or two.
We suspect that this will be a powerful piece and you do not want to miss this.
In the interim we simply had to draw readers’ attention to what the PM said yesterday. That one sentence which we have quoted above reveals that Boris Johnson still seems to be following the disastrous and discredited modelling from Imperial College.
We have been unable to find any reference to this sentence in the articles from the BBC and mainstream media, so we felt compelled to draw it to readers’ attention. In our view it is profoundly worrying.
Should the Govt now recognise this officially and publicly?
Is it time for a radical (and very, very fast) rethink of the data-gathering, data-analysis, and decision-making process? And should the Government now spell out in black and white how much the lockdown is costing each day, how many jobs will be lost forever, how many lives are being lost to non-Covid deaths which are being caused by the Covid measures, etc?
In other words, is it time for honesty from the Government and will the public respect it if the Government fronts up about the poor quality of “the science”?
Please donate something today if you can, to keep us going. We have an excellent Brexit article almost ready for tomorrow, and we hope to publish a very important piece by a polician and major businessman in the next 48 hours. If you believe in free speech and a fully free and independent United Kingdom, we would love to have your support. Thank you so much.
[ Sources: No.10 | Github (where model is posted) | Imperial Report on COVID-19 mortality and healthcare demand ] Politicians and journalists can contact us for details, as ever.
Brexit Facts4EU.Org, Mon 11 May 2020
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