Is the Canada goose worth chasing? Trade figures suggest not

Official trade data shows EU has benefited from Canada trade deal, not Canada

Over 15 years for EU to do trade deal with Canada, and Canadians are asking if it was worth it

A row has broken out between the EU and the UK over the demands being imposed from Brussels on the framework for a trade deal to apply between the UK and the 27 EU countries after 31 Dec 2020. The EU’s trade deal with Canada is at the centre of this row.

Brexit Facts4EU.Org decided to investigate the much-discussed ‘CETA’ (the EU-Canada free trade agreement) to see how much it has benefited either side since it was introduced after 15 years of wrangling and dithering by the EU.

The results of our research of Canadian Government and WTO statistics are shocking

IMPORTANT BACKGROUND : The bulk of Canada’s exports go to the US – something the Canadian Government is keen to change. As a result, the Government and its official statistics agency report much of its output in terms of ‘US’ and ‘non-US’. We have followed their methodology as it makes sense for comparison purposes.

Brexit Facts4EU.Org Summary

Is this Canadian trade deal a goose with a rotten egg?

In 2018, Canada’s good exports to the world grew by 6.5%
Excluding the U.S., exports to non-U.S. destinations grew by 9.8% to $153 billion
Despite its CETA trade deal with the EU, Canada’s exports to the EU only grew by 5.9%
That’s a far lower growth rate than to all other non-U.S. countries
It’s even lower than Canada’s average export growth rate to the entire World

In 2018, Canada’s goods imports from the world grew by 5.8% to $607 billion
Canada found its imports from the EU grew by double this rate, at 11.8%

Overview – Canada’s trade with EU after they did the trade deal.

Canada’s exports to the EU are growing almost half as fast as they are to the rest of the world
The EU’s exports to Canada are growing twice as fast as Canada is seeing from the rest of the world

A final comparison – with the United Kingdom

The average of all global goods exports from all countries around the world grew by 9.8% in 2018. UK global goods exports grew by 10.1% in the same year.

Despite 15 years of tortuous negotiations with the EU, and finally securing a trade deal (which is still not legally ratified), Canada only managed to grow its exports to the EU by 5.9% in the latest year for which statistics are available.

Observations

The mainstream media is full of the personality politics of the trade battle between the EU and the UK, as usual.

We most definitely welcome the more robust arguments which are finally coming out of No.10, after four years of us pleading with them to act tough with the EU.

That said, as far as we can see no major news organisation – and certainly not our national broadcaster the BBC – has bothered to do any research to see if the much talked about Canada deal is worth having in the first place.

If you would like to see an independent, non-partisan, and influential group like ours continue to publish during this important year, we’re afraid you have to vote with your bank cards. We rely 100% on public donations, and quick and secure methods are below. Thank you so much for whatever you can do to keep us going.

[ Sources: Canadian Government Global Affairs Dept | Statistics Canada | WTO | EU Commission ] Politicians and journalists can contact us for details, as ever.

Brexit Facts4EU.Org, 20 Feb 2020

Click here to go to our news headlines

And please scroll down to COMMENT on the above article.

Something to say about this? Scroll down for reader comments

Since before the EU Referendum, Brexit Facts4EU.Org
has been the most prolific researcher and publisher of Brexit facts in the world.

Supported by MPs, MEPs, & other groups, our work has impact.

We think facts matter. Please donate today, so that we can continue to ensure a clean Brexit is finally delivered.

Any credit card user

Quick One-off

From £5 - £1,000

Monthly

From £3 per month

Paypal Users Only - Choose amount first

Quick One-off

Monthly

PLEASE NOTE IF YOU WOULD LIKE TO COMMENT : You can write your comment under any existing comments below. After you have clicked to preview your comment, you MUST then click on the CAPTCHA system and send you comment, for it to be published. Thank you!

Reader Comments 10

1. Martin, (ex-pat Canadian in UK) , Thursday, February 20, 2020, 08:25:

So Canada has yet to see any real benefit from its trade deal with the EU? Now there's a surprise.
Thanks to you guys we get to have a perspective on these things but if we relied on the BBC we wouldn't have a clue. Thank god we have you and all the research you do. And yes, I donated last year and have just made another £25 donation. Please keep going, we need you.

2. Sydney Ashurst , Thursday, February 20, 2020, 08:54:

More evidence, if it was needed that the UK will do much better by walking away on WTO terms.
Why have all the aggro with Barnier and the French. No claim on our fish, no arguments over level playing field rules. Spurious arguments about the UK being only 21 miles from Calais does not change the situation that in their eyes we become a third Country like the rest of the World outside of the EU.
The BBC stick to the line no good will come of our leaving the EU.

3. Keith H , Thursday, February 20, 2020, 09:32:

Thank you again for digging down & getting the facts. It is hard to see how anyone can still think staying in the EU was a better option when the way the EU treats us is an absolute disgrace. I wonder when the rose-tinted glasses will fall off the eyes of the MSM. I have stopped watching the BBC news because of the relentlessly negative approach. The new points-based immigration system is a recent example. As usual, the BBC presented it as a disaster & found people to comment negatively about it.
The sooner the license fee is abolished the better. What is the matter with our MSM that they do not support the UK & seem to talk & write us down at any opportunity.
I sincerely hope that the PM has the guts & backbone to simply walk away rather than waste months on a fruitless negotiation. If we don't have the outline of a fair deal by the end of May, we should walk away on June 30th, paying nothing & trade on WTO terms. Remember " Nothing is agreed until everything is agreed."

4. Brexiter Braintree Essex , Thursday, February 20, 2020, 10:07:

I think the UK Government negotiator Frost, knows this Canada style free trade deal the UK is after, is not on offer to the UK.The EU is a protectionist racket,the economies inside are insulated from competition from companies in the rest of the world by tariffs.
The citizens of the EU are paying a high price for this,they pay over the odds for goods and services that could be sourced cheaper outside the EU.They also pay high taxes to maintain the elite lifestyles of the
bureaucrats and administrators at the European Commission,but the end is coming.
There will be no deal between the UK and the EU,the EU don't want one,they are terrified of a major Western economy on their doorstep in competition to them.The only deal Boris Johnson and the UK Government will be offered is the Australian model,trade on WTO terms.

5. Martyn, Co. Durham , Thursday, February 20, 2020, 10:15:

Another example of the EU acting in bad faith. Whereas they expect all treaties and agreements to be respected to the absolute letter when it benefits the EU, they themselves are happy to bend the rules whenever it suits them and engage in pettifogging rather than robust action on agreed commitments. This is what the Canadian Agri-Food Trade Alliance have complained about.
CETA eliminated 95% of tariffs but the problems lie in the remaining non-tariff barriers. For example, Italy have raised issues with country of origin labeling on Durum wheat resulting in a 50% drop in Canadian exports. France (past opponents of CETA, in part because of the threat to the French beef industry) have unreasonably insisted that only veterinarians can approve beef export audits when other methods are perfectly good and fit for purpose.
While the EU might argue that it's simply upholding standards, all these difficulties and roadblocks are adding delays and costs that have conveniently resulted in a €3.5 billion trade deficit in Agri-Food alone in favour of the EU.
Rather than invigorating trade, Canadian Agri-Food businesses are being increasingly put off exporting to the EU because of the EU's constant and unflagging efforts to make exporting there as difficult as possible.

6. Catherine, Worcestershire , Thursday, February 20, 2020, 14:08:

It will be interesting to obtain similar data regarding the effect on their deal with Japan.

7. Adam Hiley , Thursday, February 20, 2020, 18:13:

Trade deals are a bad idea it always entails job losses in the participating Countries involved, Trump for example withdrew America from Obama's TTIP idea, and I cannot stand Barnier or His Country

8. Jon, Wales , Friday, February 21, 2020, 03:43:

Off-Topic.
Irish PM Leo Varadkar has tendered his resignation :-) ...(source: Sky News).
Yet another one down, so will the next casualty be Mr Macron? We live in hope.
We already know Mrs Merkel is stepping aside.
In my opinion, we're witnessing the fall of EU arrogance, and hopefully EU demise?
Let peoples across the continent be proud of their country and cultures before EU institutions take it all away?
We can then remain friendly without the annoyance and interference of the unwanted [unaccountable] EU institutions, and the EU should remember one extremely important factor - British people do not put up with threatening behaviour from others.
I challenge the EU to promote Brexit-styled referendums across the remaining EU27, if they have the guts?

9. Concerned , Friday, February 21, 2020, 06:52:

8. Jon - fully agreed it is almost worth having a whisky to celebrate the resignation of Leo - I am so happy at that roundly deserving of resignation for failure. Maybe Sturgie can be next.......
Not a case of guts "I challenge the EU to promote Brexit-styled referendums across the remaining EU27, if they have the guts?" - we all know what the answer would be! Instant death of the utopian dream. Follow the money too, all those fat salaries, expenses and other benefits........ what a farce it has all been for the best part of 47 years of membership.

10. GeorgeP , Friday, February 21, 2020, 13:04:

Australian deal. What a laugh! Why cant't they just say it how it is and tell the people that if a deal cannot be reached the UK will be trading with the EU on WTO terms and that is how our successful trading relationships with countries like Australia, New Zealand, China, India and the USA are managed! The WTO provides a basic level playing field and the rules stipulate that friction at borders must be kept to a minimum. Even the mighty EU has to comply! They should start selling this outcome to the British people now before Project Fear Mk XXVI swings into action again. A good start would be to point out that there are no fleets of container ships from the Far East waiting to get into the big ports like Southampton and Felixstowe because of holdups caused by customs checks.

Add comment:

Please note: Your email address is never published unless you choose to enter it.