“Tears before bedtime? We don’t need the UK for that.”

EU leaders, faced with post-Brexit €75bn black hole, can’t fund their way out of the crisis

Credit: EU Council

Early night for Merkel, as first EU Council Summit without UK descended into farce & fudge

Last night the first EU Summit of 27 leaders without the UK as a member country broke up with no agreement at all. Not only was the main topic of the two-day summit – the EU’s €1 TRILLION new budget - not agreed, it appears that most member countries are farther apart now than before the summit started.

“We don't need Great Britain in order to show disunity.”

- President Macron of France, at his press conference in Brussels last night, 21 Feb 2020

Suddenly the EU are facing life without British money

Brexit Facts4EU.Org Summary

The new EU budget will start the moment the UK finally leaves the EU, at 11pm, 31 Dec 2020
The 27 EU countries, the EU Commission, and the EU Parliament are arguing over how big it should be
One thing is certain – the EU’s budget will total more than €1 TRILLION Euros
This time, thanks to Brexit, the UK will not be one of the minority of countries paying for it

“Unfortunately, today we have observed that it was not possible to reach an agreement. We have observed that we need more time. We know that this European budget is a very difficult topic, it's a very difficult negotiation, especially after Brexit and the gap between 60 and 75 billion euro.”

- EU Council President Charles Michel, Brussels, 21 Feb 2020

How much will the EU Commission lose following Brexit?

Projecting any macroeconomic figures over a seven year period is fraught with risk. That said, there is over 45 years of accumulated data to look at whilst the UK was a member of the EU, and we also know the minimum and maximum positions of the various EU bodies and member countries in respect of the new budget.

The Brexit Facts4EU.Org team’s conservative estimate of the UK’s net contribution to the EU’s likely new budget – if the UK were still a member – is €90 billion. In this we are including the various ‘off-budget’ funds which the EU has used and continues to set up for various purposes.

Just how bad is the disunity in the EU now?

The simple answer is that there is no consensus forming around any EU budgetary proposal, from any EU leader, from any EU country. The mainstream media are attempting to simplify matters by referring to blocs of countries (the “Frugal Four”, the “Cohesion Countries”, etc) but the reality is that the picture is more fragmented.

The new EU Council President is Belgian Charles Michel, who has taken over from Donald Tusk. Sadly Monsieur Michel is not considered to have covered himself in glory in the last couple of days. Indeed Chancellor Merkel made some very disparaging remarks about the lack of a detailed ‘Plan B’ when it was clear that President Michel’s initial proposal had no wings at all.

Angela Merkel saw it all coming and went to bed early on the first day

Things looked so bad before the Summit even started that Dutch Prime Minister Marc Rutte turned up with a book to read, to while away the time.

Images credit: EU Council, montage by Brexit Facts4EU.Org

After the first day of this EU Summit on Thursday the German Chancellor, Angela Merkel, clearly read the runes correctly. Frau Merkel is a veteran of dozens of EU Council budget discussions over the years. She knew, as we did, that nothing will be resolved for months.

Observations

In direct terms, the forthcoming EU budget is not supposed to affect the UK. In reality it will, because the EU will be seeking every penny it can from the UK in unlawful claims, in order to try to offset the billions which the other EU countries are now fighting over.

These things will matter this year – BBC take note

Before the UK’s EU Referendum, the summits of the 28 leaders of the EU member countries were barely reported on by the UK media. Indeed this was also true of the proceedings of the EU Parliament and the statements of the EU Commission President and his Commissioners. “Nothing to see here,” seemed to be the stance of most of the media.

With the announcement of the EU Referendum however, some reporting increased – mostly from a pro-EU, Remainer perspective. This latter point was true even of Eurosceptic newspapers like the Daily Telegraph, whose Europe Editor was inexplicably allowed to continue his pro-EU bias.

His output paled into insignificance, of course, compared to the massed pro-EU onslaught from the extremist Remainer-Orcs who still dominate the News and Current Affairs Department of the BBC.

Macron to claim compensation for not being allowed to take our fish

Yesterday the French President gave an interview to local French newspapers. So far it has gone unreported by the BBC, but we have read it in full.

It’s punchy stuff, eg “I will not let our fishermen be affected by the British vote, about which they can do nothing.”

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[ Sources: EU Council | EU Commission | French regional papers | ] Politicians and journalists can contact us for details, as ever.

Brexit Facts4EU.Org, Sat 22 Feb 2020

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Reader Comments 9

1. William Pentelow , Saturday, February 22, 2020, 07:28:

Chuckle.

2. David Cressey , Saturday, February 22, 2020, 08:30:

We should start offering individual deals to countries that have the most to lose under the new arrangements. That should test the cohesion!

3. Sydney Ashurst , Saturday, February 22, 2020, 09:15:

Who will fill that financial black hole?
Will Chancellor Merkel or President Macron step forward. Not Macron - “We don't need Great Britain in order to show disunity.”
Is Jean Monnet's dream coming to an end, with more takers than givers. Grandiose schemes gobble up the money.
Ursula's green deal has yet to be taken seriously. Can the 27 commit to it and find the money.

4. James Bertram , Saturday, February 22, 2020, 09:46:

'In direct terms, the forthcoming EU budget is not supposed to affect the UK. In reality it will, because the EU will be seeking every penny it can from the UK in unlawful claims, in order to try to offset the billions which the other EU countries are now fighting over.'
-
Agreed.
But, too, it should make the EU keener to give us a good trade deal - that's if the Tory Party doesn't, once again, weakly give in to EU demands; and if the EU, for once, can put trade benefits ahead of egos/political union - both a big 'if'.

5. Zerren Yeoville , Saturday, February 22, 2020, 22:28:

Why can't Macron just arrange for French fishermen to be paid some minimal compensation in return for smashing up their boats and quitting the fishing industry altogether, just as British fishermen were forced to do to make room for the Continental fishermen hoovering up the fish stocks in UK waters?

6. Barbara Jell , Sunday, February 23, 2020, 01:02:

At a meeting yesterday, one member asked why is the Government not commissioning the building of boats/ships from our idle boatyards who could do with the work, to protect our fishing waters post exit? He's right - we are going to need them.

7. Jon, Wales , Sunday, February 23, 2020, 03:41:

As I have pointed out many times here, that if the EU want to continue THEIR political construct - they pay for it themselves (which is not unreasonable), and if the remaining EU27 wish to adopt federalism in all its forms, it is a matter for them.
The world has now witnessed their first meeting without the UK where they can't even agree their own budget, let alone their fantasy expenditure which they expect all EU27 citizens to pay.
I agree with many comments over the months and years, where the UK from its position of trading may simply offer individual EU27 sovereign nations bilateral deals which exclude the EU commission - It will be their decision, whilst proving you don't need to be a member of the EU in order to trade.
I suspect the UK will not be the last sovereign country to exit the EU construct.

8. Adam Hiley , Sunday, February 23, 2020, 16:55:

ignore Bankers puppet Macron

9. Joanna lee , Monday, February 24, 2020, 21:11:

Excellent website. Have donated. Keep up the good work.

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