Why are we still gambling with the EU on Brexit?
Dicey games for Boris in the Last Chance Brexit Saloon
© Brexit Facts4EU.Org 2020
Brexit Facts4EU.Org Sunday editorial looking at Boris’s odds in the EU’s casino
Readers will be aware from news reports yesterday that the vaunted telephone call between the Prime Minister and the President of the EU Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, failed to change a thing. The two sides are still a long way apart, despite having had four-and-a-half years to sort out the arrangements for the UK’s departure from the European Union.
Has Brexit really come down to the 2.8% chance of throwing a double-six?
Last night a UK Government source said:
“This is the final throw of the dice. There is a fair deal to be done that works for both sides but
this will only happen if the EU is willing to respect the fundamental principles of sovereignty and control.”
Most of the media picked up on the soundbite of “the final throw of the dice” without questioning that this phrase suggests the last move in a 'dicey' game of chance. We believe that a great many voters would have hoped that the terms of the UK’s final exit from the EU would have involved rather more deliberation and certainty.
This is still about ‘fundamental principles’, not the details of cod quotas
The second question for the Prime Minister is this:
If the EU is still failing “to respect the fundamental principles of sovereignty and control,”
then how is it remotely possible that “There is a fair deal to be done”?
If the EU hasn’t understood the basic premise of Brexit in four-and-a-half years, what chance is there of it suddenly seeing the light in the final hours left before the EU Summit on Thursday? For “a fair deal to be done”, the EU would have to make a complete volte-face and then alter almost every aspect and detail of its unreasonable demands. This would have to happen on everything from cod quotas to complex ‘rules of origin’ percentages to the complete removal of the ECJ from any arbitration role in UK life. And a hundred other major issues on top.
In the words of the old song, “That ain’t going to happen”. This is not like trying to throw a double-six when the dice are loaded to land on ones, it’s more like trying to throw a double-six when the EU supplied the dice and finding that each face only contains a single black dot.
So what is going to happen tomorrow?
Tomorrow (Monday) evening, the Prime Minister is due to speak to the EU Commission President again, to review the state of play after the two sets of negotiators have spent a further two days talking. Quite what the point was of sending poor Lord Frost back to Brussels when the EU’s negotiating mandate hasn’t changed – and indeed has hardened thanks to the French and a few other countries – is beyond our understanding.
In essence there are two broad schools of thought amongst the community of major Brexit organisations. One school believes that the Prime Minister and his team will not compromise on sovereignty and that they have played a waiting game to force the EU into declaring an untenable position from which the UK can then walk away. This school argues that Mr Johnson must be seen to have ‘gone the extra mile’.
The second school of thought amongst Brexit organisations comes from a lack of trust in the Prime Minister. They believe that the moves for some time have been ‘choreographed’ and that a fudged deal will miraculously be announced this week, with a resounding “I said we’d get Brexit done and we have! We stood firm and against all the odds we’ve won a marvellous victory for the country!”
Where will Brexit Facts4EU.Org stand?
We will continue to maintain our independent stance and will review the outcomes next week in a dispassionate and factual manner. Our first question will always be:
“Does this outcome deliver a fully free, fully independent, and fully sovereign United Kingdom?”
Please do let us know your thoughts, using our comment facility below.
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Brexit Facts4EU.Org, Sun 06 Dec 2020
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