Is Brexit about to be blind-sided?

“And lo this Christmas, it shall come to pass…” (by a majority of MPs)

With no proper scrutiny and debate, the unpublished ‘Future Relations’ Bill will pass on Wednesday

Facts4EU.Org looks at how the Government’s EU ‘trade’ deal will sail into UK law
like a Dutch or Spanish super-trawler entering UK waters, unhindered

There is currently no business listed for the House of Commons or House of Lords this week. Nevertheless we know that Parliament is being recalled for Wednesday (30 Dec), when both Houses will be presented with an as yet unpublished ‘EU Future Relationship Bill’.

This Bill will have the effect of putting into legal effect the largest single trade deal the United Kingdom has ever agreed with a foreign power. The Government’s 1,246-page ‘UK-EU Trade and Cooperation Agreement’ (TCA) was published on Saturday, 26 Dec 2020, together with other associated documents. (Readers can access all documents here.) We continue to analyse these, but we know Wednesday's Bill will be passed.

Who’s going to vote for the biggest trade deal in UK history, most without reading or understanding it?

There are currently 639 voting MPs in the House of Commons. (There are 650 MPs but the 639 voting MPs exclude the seven Sinn Fein representatives who do not take up their seats, and the four non-voting MPs from the Speaker’s office.)

Here is a guess from the Brexit Facts4EU.Org team of how the votes will line up on Wednesday.

Brexit Facts4EU.Org Summary

Could the biggest UK 'trade and cooperation' treaty in UK history pass like this?

For: 536
Against: 80
Majority: 456

We must stress that the above is purely speculative. Much depends on the outcome – expected today – of the verdict of the ‘Star Chamber’ of legal experts from the ERG, who have been studying the proposed trade deal in secret.

The ERG has some 70 Conservative members who are all pro-Brexit. Unfortunately almost all the ERG voted for the disastrous Withdrawal Agreement in January, so we expect only a very small number to vote against the ‘trade deal’. A few more may abstain.

Which political parties are for or against the deal?

In broad party terms, the Conservatives, Labour, DUP and independents will vote for the deal
The SNP, LibDems, Plaid Cymru and Green will - or are most likely to - vote against
Some MPs from the major parties will abstain or vote against their party whip
The Bill will pass easily

On Christmas Eve, two days before the TCA was officially published, the leader of Her Majesty’s loyal opposition, Sir Keir Starmer, announced that:

“Labour accepts this deal and we will vote for it.”

We expect a small number of Labour rebels – possibly a dozen.

Yesterday Nicola Sturgeon of the SNP announced:

“Far better then for our MPs to cast a principled vote against Brexit, as we get on with winning the positive case for independence.”

We expect all SNP MPs to vote against.

Ed Davey, leader of the LibDems said on Saturday:

“So Liberal Democrats cannot support this dreadful deal.”

We expect 10 LibDem MPs to vote against, with one abstention.

Observations

As we continue our study of the proposed Trade and Cooperation Agreement, we find it incomprehensible that the vast majority of MPs will vote for this deal on Wednesday without having had time to read it, understand it, and debate it properly.

This is not only a trade deal. Like the Withdrawal Agreement that MPs passed in January, it ties the UK into international treaty commitments for years to come.

Despite this, the vast majority of MPs will apparently be content to troop through the lobbies on Wednesday evening, dutifully voting the way they have been told to. Now, of course everyone knows that this happens as a matter of routine for most votes in Parliament. This time, though, will be the second time in 12 months that MPs have been asked to vote on a momentous proposal for the future of the country.

We've been here before

No-one can say that a valuable lesson shouldn’t have been learnt from the first time a catastrophic error was made - in Dec 2019 and Jan 2020 - when legislation was rushed through the House to pass the Withdrawal Act. Over the course of many months thereafter, the true nature of this abominable treaty came to light. So bad was it that the Government even started to legislate to undo some of its clauses, only to drop its plans at the last minute after bullying from the EU.

Now it appears that history may well repeat itself.

Why not go provisional?

We continue to urge the Prime Minister to bring forward temporary legislation to apply the new ‘trade deal’ only provisionally, as the EU are doing. This would give everyone more time to study the proposals and ensure that any essential corrections could be made. If this isn’t done, we foresee many, many years of legal conflicts with the EU.

This might keep lawyers happy, but not many other people. This will not be “Getting Brexit Done”, rather “Getting Brexit Done Over, and Over, and Over”.

We know times are difficult for many people this Christmas. Covid has affected us all, and it has definitely affected the level of donations we receive from members of the public. With no other source of income, we rely on our readers to keep us going.

We are most grateful to readers who have donated in recent days, but we badly need more readers to do the same if we are to continue researching facts, scrutinising, publishing, and lobbying MPs. Quick, secure, and confidential donation links are below this article, or you can use our Donations page here. If you have never donated before, please, please, keep us going with a donation now. Thank you so much.

[ Sources: UK Parliament ] Politicians and journalists can contact us for details, as ever.

Brexit Facts4EU.Org, Mon 28 Dec 2020

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Reader Comments 17

1. Andrew Man , Monday, December 28, 2020, 08:59:

“This Bill will have the effect of putting into legal effect the largest single trade deal UK has agreed with a foreign power. ‘UK-EU Trade and Cooperation Agreement’ (TCA) was published on Saturday (26 Dec 2020), together with other associated documents”. @Facts4euOrg

2. A Leaver , Monday, December 28, 2020, 09:04:

The bigger picture is this enables us to rebuild our country with global partners. Of course the deal will fail in the future; however, at present we need to buy time with minimal disruption to existing arrangements whilst we quietly seek out better agreements with alternative partners. The more onerous trade with EU countries becomes, the quicker the EU will disintegrate due to infighting and the more our UK companies will look for alternative countries with which to trade. In good time, we will go WTO and walk away because the economy and the existing trade deals will mean we will be positioned to do so.

3. Ashley Great Britain , Monday, December 28, 2020, 09:35:

I believe even the snp will vote for this. Isn't wto the default if this doesn't pass?
For our mp's to have no time to read this Tca,And then one day to debate and vote is disastrous.
This whole fiasco is diabolical.
It looks very likely that this isn't a true Brexit.
This is not leaving the Eu whole and entire to be independent.
I told you so from remainers is just around the corner.
We all want to put this to bed,But the fight goes on.
Reform party here we come.

4. Not4EU, London , Monday, December 28, 2020, 10:21:

2. A.Leaver.
A rather optimistic outlook, & one no doubt similar to that sold to MPs to persuade them to vote for the appalling WA/PD for 'the sake of the parteh'. Except that what was promised didn't happen & we can already see the effects of EU annexation in something as simple as taking a pet on holiday to NI. Always jam tomorrow, but it doesn't happen as it is the EU that we are dealing with, with many complicit EUlings here doing their work for them.
You can see that the intention was to never leave & keep us under the influence & control by how they are reacting. An 'intending to be' independent country would be putting its ducks in a row, setting up for growth, repatriating jobs & businesses & putting in place our security. We saw the direction of travel a couple of years ago, with the contract (including security protections) for British passports given to an EU company. The contract for monitoring fishing in our sovereign waters has just been given to the French. Are these the actions of a Govt that intends to 'take back control'? Boros the Bottler was always for a deal at any cost. It will not save him nor his Party.
With Boros doing his 'Moses' act, he is just following the EU's instructions. It worked for the WA/PD, & is working for the current Govt by Ministerial diktat, so why not an intentionally hobbling Treaty? Most MPs have never had to do more than rubberstamp EU diktats in their entire career & this will be no different. The red-tied part of our Potemkin Govt will vote for it as that's what the EU wants. It will allow for a swift engineered re-entry. Only a (too) few brave MPs, who understand independence, will stand against it.

5. Not4EU, London , Monday, December 28, 2020, 10:22:

We do need a law to make MPs personally accountable & liable for the decisions that they make. We've seen the deliberate trashing of our economy & now re-tying the strings that we voted to cut with the malevolent EU. Who in their right mind wants an agreement with a controlling organisation that hates us? Answers why on a postage stamp.
Our only hope is that MPs have the gumption to insist that it is a provisional agreement, allowing time to properly consider it & identify & undo the damage that this does. After all, it's what the EU is doing.

6. Ashley Great Britain , Monday, December 28, 2020, 10:45:

What status do we have after 1st jan if the Eu say this is provisional.
Its yet another enforced extension for two months.
Its not right in any way that Eu countries or agencies play any part in the running of our country.why on gods earth are the french going to monitor our fishing grounds. That will work out nicely.
Its beginning to look a lot like bojo didn't have any guts after all.
I can't wait for our great pro Brexit minds to go through the Tcp.will we need it to wash our mouths out.
We need to see a list of pros and cons side by side for this.

7. A Leaver , Monday, December 28, 2020, 11:08:

It is not optimistic any more than it is realistic. We are, almost inextricably, integrated with the EU and so is our economy. Only a fool would sever ties completely at this juncture. We are not ready to do so and the economic fall-out would have been severe...negative interest rates, more QE and at a point in the economic cycle where inflation is poised to take the headlines in 2021/22. As for your other points on passport printing or fishing surveillance, they are cherry picked and somewhat ironically portray the protectionist mentality that you voted to leave.
This deal does, indeed, offer the opportunity for the UK to prosper outside of the single market and customs union...that was the intention and that has been delivered. Will the British people seize the opportunities that have been made available? History tells us that they will.

8. Chimera , Monday, December 28, 2020, 11:10:

We need an alternative party who actually have the nerve and commitment to rescind the agreement in 2026 and take us forward on WTO terms. This Bill will pass and it has to in the short term; if we are to restructure our trade to move into the future as a Global Trading Nation then we need to buy time. If we can successfully sideline the EU into irrelevancy as a trading partner it will give heart to the ‘Timorous Tories’ and who knows what 2025 will bring.

9. SicSemperTyrannis , Monday, December 28, 2020, 12:54:

In my view, Conservative MPs should vote against, and let the UK exit on WTO rules this Friday.
By doing so, Tory MPs (especially those in the red wall constituencies) defend UK fishermen's interests, which will increase their chances of winning their seat at the next GE.

10. Roger Cannon , Monday, December 28, 2020, 13:21:

It will pass because it is actually a very thin heads of terms agreement not an FTA. The real business will be decided by a Partnership Council (see Article INST.1)

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