What’s the point of a UK-EU trade deal, if only the EU benefits?

12 years of talks, and Canada’s EU deal resulted in its goods deficit worsening by 27%

Canadian PM Trudeau & EU Commission President Juncker sign trade deal, 2016

16 years after starting talks, Canada’s deal still hasn’t been ratified by half the EU’s countries

An EXCLUSIVE Brexit Facts4EU.Org update on Canada's woeful experience with the EU

The EU has so few serious trade deals with the rest of the world that it still trumpets one deal – the one with Canada - which only half the EU27 countries have signed. It’s a deal which has benefited the EU more than Canada. If the UK’s experience with the EU follows Canada’s, questions must be asked about whether the current UK-EU talks are worth the candle.

Back in the glory days of 2016 immediately after the British people had voted to leave the European Union, the EU Commission was desperate for any kind of positive news to present.

In October 2016 they duly invited the Prime Minister of Canada, Justin Trudeau, to Brussels to sign the long-awaited ‘Comprehensive Economic and Trade Agreement’ (CETA) which had notionally been agreed three years earlier, back in 2014.

Never one to pass up a photo opportunity Mr Trudeau accepted the EU’s invitation, and on 30 October 2016 CETA was signed by him amongst much pomp and circumstance in Brussels.

What has happened to Canada’s trade deficit with the EU since signing the trade deal?

Brexit Facts4EU.Org Summary

Canada’s trade deficit since signing the EU-Canada trade deal in 2016

Canada’s deficit in goods with the EU27 has worsened by 27%, to -€17.5bn
Canada’s deficit in services with the EU27 has not improved either and is now -€5.5bn
Canada's EU27 exports have risen, but the EU27's exports to Canada have risen far more
When the UK is removed, Canada's exports to the EU overall will have dropped dramatically

Four months before Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau flew to Brussels to sign the EU-Canada (CETA) deal, the British people had voted to leave the EU. At that moment the EU deal suddenly became much less sweet to Canada.

In 2016 Canadians sold goods worth $Canadian 41,880 million to the EU28
43% of this was actually sold to the UK
Without the UK, Canada's EU Trade Agreement is worth a whole lot less than it was

The tortured history of this trade deal which the EU is so proud of

The EU says the EU-Canada trade deal (CETA) took 7 years. No it didn’t. It started in 2004 in Ottawa. That’s 12 years before it was signed.

Brexit Facts4EU.Org Summary

Timeline of Canada-EU Trade Deal

2004 : Ottawa, deal framework was agreed, negotiations started
2009 : Prague, negotiations were rebranded as CETA trade deal
2014 : Toronto, a signed ‘in principle’ agreement was presented
2016 : Brussels, deal is vetoed by Belgian region of Wallonia
2016 : Brussels, deal is signed by Canadian PM Justin Trudeau
2017 : Brussels, parts of the deal are finally effected
2020 : Brussels, only 14 of the 27 EU member states have so far ratified the deal
None of the EU27’s top 3 economies have ratified: Germany, France, and Italy

12 years since negotiations started with the EU, and then the problems really started

If Mr Trudeau thought the CETA deal was done and dusted, he was in for a surprise. First up was the divided EU member state of Belgium, which still today only barely functions as a country. Belgium requested the ECJ to rule on whether the CETA deal was in fact lawful.

In the months leading up to Mr Trudeau’s visit, ‘the Walloons went up’. Wallonia is a French-speaking part of Belgium with its own parliament, and they refused to sign. In the end, a day before Justin Trudeau’s arrival in Brussels, pressure was brought to bear and Belgium agreed in principle to sign, although it still hasn’t ratified the deal.

The United Kingdom ratified the deal on 08 November 2018, while it was still a member of the EU.

Observations

How logical are the EU?

It would seem logical to try to do trade deals with the world’s largest economies, and to make these the key priorities. After all, if you compare just one deal with a country like the USA with a country like Canada, a US deal would be worth ten times what the Canadian deal is worth.

Unfortunately after more than 60 years of existence, the EEC/EU hasn’t managed to do a trade deal with the biggest and most powerful economy in the world.

What price an EU-UK trade deal?

After America the United Kingdom is the EU27’s second-largest market – far bigger than that of China.

Instead of working hard and in good faith to negotiate a new trading arrangement with the UK, the EU has placed every conceivable obstacle (and quite a few inconceivable ones) in the way of achieving a successful outcome. This started in 2016 when it refused to have any discussions with the UK – not even informal ones. In the intervening years the number of artificial obstructions it has thrown up has been legion.

Hope is now being placed in a last-minute compromise being forged, with Barnier being sidelined and the EU27 leaders (Angela Merkel in particular) becoming involved in the final months of this year.

What we should do with the EU

Our response to the EU is simple. No compromise. We would tell the EU27 politely: “Do a normal free trade deal now or we will hold you as acting in bad faith. The evidence for this is now unequivocal and overwhelming. As a result we will be legally entitled to repudiate the Withdrawal Agreement. No massive divorce bill. No nothing. Trade with us on WTO terms by all means, if you want to try to keep the €100bn+ trade surpluses you’ve been running with us each year.”

Our message to Prime Minister Johnson is equally simple : “Announce immediate and full-scale preparations for a WTO-terms exit. Publicise these daily, just like you did with the Coronavirus. And make sure Angela Merkel and Emmanuel Macron know that you mean business. Announce that you will also be repudiating the Withdrawal Agreement.”

Finally, Brexit Facts4EU.Org has been the most prolific researcher and publisher of Brexit facts for the past five years - since before the EU Referendum. Sadly we can't keep researching, publishing and campaigning without the support of you, dear reader. We have no corporate billionaire backers, unlike some Remain campaigners. If you haven't previously donated, could we ask you to consider this now? If all readers gave just £5 we could survive until Christmas. As it is, only a small proportion are able to donate, so whatever you can give would be very much appreciated. Quick, secure, and confidential donation methods are below. Thank you so much.

[ Sources: Statistics Canada | Eurostat | EU Commission ] Politicians and journalists can contact us for details, as ever.

Brexit Facts4EU.Org, Sat 29 Aug 2020

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Reader Comments 18

1. Jon, Wales , Saturday, August 29, 2020, 08:08:

I should think Canadian Prime Minister Trudeau is fed up to the back teeth with the EU and its failures, as outlined above. Indeed, when ordinary Canadian citizens understand their country is being used for the benefit of the EU, then Mr Trudeau may well find himself faced with angry Canadians, especially so when they realise the trade deficit has worsened, and more so when they realise how the EU Commission treats its second largest customer, just because we democratically voted to exit the political EU after over four decades supporting the rest of the EU instead of our own country.
Everyone now knows we in the UK were never told the truth and ACTUAL purpose of the construct decades ago - we were purposely lied to. Though many of us of a certain age [including the SNP, Plaid Cymru and Labour] realised what was happening at the outset.
Our politicians were not only selling out our country, they were transferring our British identity into the hands of a foreign power in peacetime [search FCO 30/1048] - which I regard as treason. I suggest those involved could have been prosecuted using Treason Laws decades ago.
-
I wish to endorse the above article, the 'observations'' in particular where: "what should we do with the EU".
The published words to respond to the EU, and what Prime Minister Johnson SHOULD be saying, are wholly in line with my own thoughts.
Given the fact the WA was rejected by the UK Parliament three times, it SHOULD have been ripped up as soon as Mr Johnson took the helm.

2. Phil the Dent , Saturday, August 29, 2020, 08:10:

Sombre reading i am praying that we just tell the eu WTO terms but i dont think boris has the balls and the judiciary will rule it illegal

3. James1 , Saturday, August 29, 2020, 08:49:

Four years after the referendum and the arguments continue. How predictable. Your ‘what we should do with the EU’ comments should have been implemented a long time ago.

4. Jon, Wales , Saturday, August 29, 2020, 09:06:

One has to wonder why the EU's top three economies (as above) - Germany, France and Italy, have failed to ratify CETA? Perhaps they know more than they say. Perhaps CETA is a bad deal and those countries are thinking again?
Will we ever know from a secretive EU who claim to be transparent? Just a thought to add to the mix.
The Commission constantly spouts its propaganda saying the EU is the best thing since sliced bread, yet it's not done the UK much good.
The EU27 need to understand the UK is a sovereign coastal nation state, and we'll do what is in the UK's best interests - we managed quite well for centuries.
We are a free people who refuse to be dictated to by Brussels bureaucrats.

5. Mike S , Saturday, August 29, 2020, 09:59:

If it's taken that long for a next to worthless,exploitative 'deal' with a country who didn't do the same as the UK has done,what else can you expect for us? The same as we have been having for the last 40+ year's,! Especially the last 4 year's. Contempt,setting as an example of what NOT to do as regard this 'world beating' & 'wonderfull' regime that is the EU,disrespect & disregard for democratic processes,unless it benefits the corrupt Eurocrats themselves & a select few here in the UK,a complete & utter disdain for a population that doesn't conform & won't be bullied by the unelected criminals of the so called super elite,not to mention the backstabbing of a great amount of UK politicians who would be quite happy to screw over the British people & sabotage the Brexit vote. If the EU & Remoaners in the UK wish for a poor deal to get one over on the UK,fine! We go over to WTO terms & we'll see who get's a better deal. We won't be as manipulated Canada has been. Leave the poor deal's to the EU,we can & will survive quite well doing our own deal's around the world that don't screw over other countries for our own inept single-minded end's.

6. Mike S , Saturday, August 29, 2020, 10:15:

Just a thought,though,is this maybe a case of Canada just showing how uninteresting & unimportant the EU is regarded by such sizeable economies?! Is it a possible case of Canada just going,"Yeah! Yeah! Whatever!" Just so they can end the talking to the EU so the Canadians can just get up & exit the room they were in together?! I suspect that there may well be a strong possibility of this. Honestly,who could blame them if this is the case. Not I,not the UK,that's including alot of us up here in Scotland too! UK for Brexit,Scot's for Brexit! One & the same!

7. Sydney Ashurst , Saturday, August 29, 2020, 11:14:

Canada as part of the Anglosphere is a very generous Country. It is little wonder it has been taken in by a Monnet led EU Brussels bureaucracy.
Working closely with their American and European colleagues, Canadian negotiators helped write the 14 articles of the North Atlantic Treaty. From the beginning, Canada emphasised that NATO needed to be more than just a military pact — it needed to promote political, economic and cultural bonds between its members.
Little wonder they sought a trade agreement with the EU.
In the 1950's as a pilot trainee in the RAF Canada trained me to Wings standard, as part of their contribution to NATO

8. Barry B , Saturday, August 29, 2020, 13:04:

Good reason to go WTO for us. NO DEAL.

9. Patrick F , Sunday, August 30, 2020, 05:19:

Off topic (apologies)
I was delighted and inspired to attend the Unite For Freedom demo in Trafalgar Square, as un widely reported by the MSM, yesterday.
The one BBC report I read said there were 100's in attendance. Go to You Tube and judge for yourselves.
There is hope this madness will end.

10. One eyed king , Sunday, August 30, 2020, 10:32:

Reinstate the treason laws, then clearing the institution of 5th column becomes simple. Tax rises at this time on those enterprises is death. Tax cuts for genuine small business is the way forward. Highstreet business rates suspended immediately. Small startup loans. Free ports. Innovation is our genetic code. You trade your way to success. You are never taxed to it. Britain was a great place. Make it better, or prove that the system we trust you to govern by is failed..

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