No new Brexit treaty can be prepared and agreed this fast

Tomorrow morning at 9am in tiny Luxembourg, it all kicks off

Credit: EU Commission

Barnier to present outcome of Brexit negotiations tomorrow

This is the Brexit deadline which has hardly been mentioned. It gives the UK’s negotiators just 24 more hours.

Brexit Facts4EU.Org Summary

No chance of a new Brexit Treaty

Here’s the current timeline

Thurs 10 Oct – Boris Johnson meets the Irish Taoiseach and makes a compromise on his offer of 02 Oct
Fri 11 Oct – Breakfast meeting between Brexit Secretary Stephen Barclay and Commission negotiator Michel Barnier
Fri 11 Oct – Barnier briefs EU ambassadors, and serious ‘tunnel’ negotiations start
Sat-Mon 12-14 Oct – Secret negotiations continue between both sides
Tues 15 Oct – Barnier presents outcome to ‘Europe’ ministers of the EU27
Thurs-Fri 17-18 Oct – EU Summit of EU27 leaders where this outcome will be discussed

Four days of intense negotations cannot produce a NEW Withdrawal Agreement

At 9am tomorrow morning in the European Convention Center Luxembourg, the EU’s General Affairs Council (Art. 50) will meet. The European affairs ministers of the EU27 will be given a presentation by Michel Barnier, the EU Commission’s Chief Negotiator, on “the state of play of Brexit”.

Between 9am and 11am these ‘Europe’ (EU) ministers will discuss Brexit and come to conclusions. The EU says “On that basis, the Council will prepare the October European Council (Article 50) meeting.”

It is the role of the General Affairs Council of the EU to prepare the information for the meetings of the European (EU) Council, which involve the heads of state or government of the EU member states. These are the meetings usually referred to as “EU Council Summits”, which normally take place quarterly.

Why does this meeting tomorrow matter?

Boris Johnson’s new offer to the EU was published just 12 days ago, on 02 October 2019. Serious ‘tunnel’ negotiations only started on Friday, three days ago, following an apparent climbdown by the PM during his meeting with Leo Varadkar the previous day.

Including today, this means that serious negotiations will have lasted just four days, before Monsieur Barnier presents the results to the EU’s General Affairs Council (Art. 50).

This ‘sub-Council’ will then present its conclusions to the main EU Council, so that the EU27 can consider these BEFORE the EU Council Summit on Thursday.

This makes the effective deadline for substantive talks to be the close of play today.

Observations

Mrs May’s Surrender Treaty was a disaster – constitutionally, democratically, economically, and in almost every other way. Even the current Prime Minister described it as “dead”.

Now it seems that it is far from dead.

We have consistently maintained that it was impossible to believe that a new Treaty could be negotiated with the EU in the few months since Boris Johnson became Prime Minister. The thing is just far too long and covers far too many subjects. We know, sadly, as we had to read it.

So what will happen?

Faced with a Prime Minister whose negotiating position has been deliberately torpedoed by the Remain majority in the House of Commons, the EU may choose to bend very slightly, but most certainly will not buckle. Why should they? The worst that can happen is that they end up agreeing yet another extension.

Naturally the EU27 will not be contemplating the continuation of monthly payments from the UK of almost £1 billion per month, while all this drags on…..

One thing is clear, and always has been. If the PM should succeed in bringing back ‘a deal’, it will barely tinker with the unacceptable mire that is contained in the current Withdrawal Agreement. There may be changes in respect of Northern Ireland, but this is just one issue among many.

Will the pro-Brexit MPs in the ERG (plus the few pro-Brexit Labour MPs) feel they must accept whatever is produced? Will the DUP?

All we can do is continue to stiffen sinews.

IMPORTANT : We have a further five ‘Brexit Fightback Initiative’ factsheets in preparation, in addition to the five we have already published. We are planning even more, but time is running out. Can you please help with a donation towards this vital work? The new ones will cover the Customs Union, Defence, Fishing, Free Movement, and many other areas.

Please see our Fightback Initiative page for easy details on donating and becoming a Sponsor of this work.

[ Sources: EU Council ] Politicians and journalists can contact us for details, as ever.

Brexit Facts4EU.Org, 14 Oct 2019

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Reader Comments 9

1. Sydney Ashurst , Monday, October 14, 2019, 07:01:

Polish those crystal balls.
Be not afeared ,with the Scottish tail wagging the dog no agreement will pass through Parliament.
Marr's interview with Nicola Sturgeon on Sunday was the pointer, her MP' will not vote for it.

2. tarien , Monday, October 14, 2019, 08:25:

It almost beggars belief that we the UK are paying nigh on £ billion per month-I suppose it would not be possible to stop those payments forthwith until such an agreement is reached with the EU (highly unlikely)-why do we have to care as to what the EU would or might do against such action? In its present very tenuous situation concerning its 27 member states (ex UK) who themselves are not that happy with the socialistic behaviour of Brussels, one would have thought they would bend over backwards to accommodate the UK in any way possible. But as we all now know full well, very disconcertingly the majority of our Westminster Parliament has shown itself fully subservient to Brussels. The march of communism with the help of the EU moves itself across. I used to have the Union Jack flying outside my house, but sometime ago as it was begining to look sad I took it down.
Quote-A moth eaten rag on a worm eaten pole-it does not look likely to stir a man's soul, tis the deeds that were done neath the moth eaten rag when the pole was a staff, and the rag was a flag.

3. Barbara Jell , Monday, October 14, 2019, 08:49:

It is the ultimate irony, is it not, that British politicians are STUPID enough to pay around £1 billion a month to the EU to facilitate our destruction! It beggars belief.

4. Barbara Jell , Monday, October 14, 2019, 09:47:

Have just emailed Jacob ~Rees-Mogg cautioning him that event the tenuous link to May's deal, any suggestion that we will remain in the Customs Union and even one more day of transition is totally unacceptable and will result in two more people supporting and voting for the Brexit Party!

5. andynuneaton , Monday, October 14, 2019, 10:10:

On a different matter....
We should ask the EU what its going to do with Spain after its violent suppression of the Catalan people and now the ridiculous imprisonment of its politicians as it apparently is the guardian of human rights in the UK and the rest of its members?

6. M. Harford , Monday, October 14, 2019, 17:24:

The UK Will soon be leaving the EUROPEAN UNION ANYWAY. WE WERE TAKEN INTO THE EU ILLEGALLY AND UNLAWFULLY BY EDWARD HEATH !!! THE CAT IS OUT OF THE BAG NOW THAT ALL PM’s and Politicians since have used Skullduggery to Keep the UK in the EU and customs unions. We were Taken into the EU on many lies and Falsehoods. Therefore every penny the UK Taxpayers have paid in was paid Illegally by politicians. So I believe their Riches should be taken from them in repayment of the monies they Illegally gave to Foreign Powers !!!

7. B. Annoyed , Tuesday, October 15, 2019, 05:13:

Comment 6, M. Harford, first time I have ever heard anyone suggest this and what a wonderful suggestion. If there is any justice left in the UK, that is exactly what should happen. I am completely with you on that.

8. Concerned , Wednesday, October 16, 2019, 15:36:

Today we see that Remainers David Lammy, Vince Cable and Dominic Grieve go to secret EU talks. Still today, but of course later in the afternoon, the Express carries another article saying dear Boris has been given 7 hours by Tusk. I wonder who that motley crew had their talks with and who paid for their trip?
Also equally grave is Benn chairing that committee and also introducing and trying to enforce his Act.
These are indeed desperate times!
I fear that England is lost. First the Lisbon treaty and now look at the mess. No one in Government has the balls to say enough of this claptrap we have left the EU as of now.

9. Diane , Wednesday, October 23, 2019, 20:01:

From the EU: ‘Brexit, a waste of time and a waste of energy’… No Mr Juncker and others, it’s our future and we have the right to leave without ‘permission’ and leave in a way that is carefully considered and acceptable to our country at the same time respectful of the EU. Nobody wishes anyone any harm, just a basis of friendly cooperation. However, the degree of control sought under these WAs is excessive to say the least and paranoid to a degree. Another headline today ‘EU will veto Brexit deal (treaty !) rather than risk another Windrush vows G.Verhofstadt’ I find that rather an insult to be honest. From the off, it was made clear repeatedly even by T.May that rights of EU citizens to remain would be supported. If people are working & settled or supporting themselves and abiding by the laws of the country in which they are living then surely that is not in question. One of the basics of any exit arrangement surely. And as far as finding a place in hell ( wished upon our then ‘Leave’ politicians a while back by Mr Tusk ) I too am happy to find my own when the time comes. ‘No more Brexit delay’ was the prompt on the 16th October in the press, from 5 named individuals and from a broad range of 274 other businesses small and large and I could not agree more with the final sentiment: Quote: “Britain is the centre of world finance & a leader in the industries of the future. We are an immense global power. It’s time we started to act like one” Unquote: Indeed !!

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