Campaign to threaten MPs’ jobs starts to bite

25 Labour MPs in Leave seats write to Jeremy Corbyn

Montage: © Brexit Facts4EU.Org

Pressure builds on MPs representing Leave constituencies

Last Wednesday, 25 Labour MPs representing seats which voted to leave the EU wrote a joint letter to the leader of the Labour Party.

Brexit Facts4EU.org Summary

Labour MPs starting to feel vulnerable

These 25 MPs represent strong Leave constituencies
Only two of the MPs voted Leave in the Referendum
The average Leave vote in their constituencies was 65.6%
On average, almost two-thirds of their electorates voted to leave the EU
12 of these MPs require a swing of under 10% of the vote to unseat them

In their letter the Labour MPs wrote:

Whilst the letter goes on to describe a ‘No Deal Brexit’ as “the worst outcome”, the MPs nevertheless go on to urge Jeremy Corbyn “to put the national interest first, to back a deal before 31 October.”

The national interest or their own interests?

Brexit Facts4EU.Org has analysed the electoral prospects of these MPs. As can be seen in our table below, these 25 MPs represent strong Leave constituencies. Ranging from 55% to 71%, the average Leave vote percentage in their seats was 65.6% in the EU Referendum.

MP NAME

CONSTITUENCY

LEAVE %

MAJORITY

Ruth Smeeth

Stoke-on-Trent North

72.1%

2359

Melanie Onn

Great Grimsby

71.4%

2565

Stephanie Peacock

Barnsley East

71.0%

13283

Gloria De Piero

Ashfield

70.5%

441

Dennis Skinner

Bolsover

70.4%

5288

Jon Cruddas

Dagenham and Rainham

70.3%

4652

Mike Hill

Hartlepool

69.6%

7650

Caroline Flint

Don Valley

68.5%

5169

Sarah Champion

Rotherham

68.3%

11387

John Mann

Bassetlaw

68.3%

4852

Dan Jarvis

Barnsley Central

68.2%

15546

Kevin Barron

Rother Valley

66.7%

3882

Julie Cooper

Burnley

66.6%

6353

Grahame Morris

Easington

66.0%

14892

Yvonne Fovargue

Makerfield

64.9%

13542

Gareth Snell

Stoke-on-Trent Central

64.8%

3897

Jo Platt

Leigh

63.3%

9554

Lisa Nandy

Wigan

63.0%

16027

Emma Lewell-Buck

South Shields

62.1%

14508

Jim McMahon

Oldham West and Royton

61.3%

17198

Laura Smith

Crewe and Nantwich

60.3%

Stephen Kinnock

Aberavon

60.1%

16761

Mary Glindon

North Tyneside

59.5%

19284

Justin Madders

Ellesmere Port and Neston

58.3%

11390

Rosie Cooper

West Lancashire

55.0%

11689

Average constituency Leave vote % :

65.6%

Note: There was a 26th signatory to the letter whom we have not included as he represents a Remain consituency and we believe he was a token to deflect the analysis we have shown above.

Critically, when looking at their majorities in the 2017 General Election,
it would only take a swing of under 10% to unseat almost half of them.
Two of these MPs have majorities of less than 500 votes.

What happened the day before their letter?

This happened two days after Tom Watson, Deputy Leader, gave a speech in which he declared:

“The core values of the EU are internationalism, solidarity, freedom. They are British, Labour values. Our future doesn’t need to be Brexit. We can change our future, but only if Labour makes the case for it – and we must.”
“European is who we are and who we have always been. Our members are Remain. Our values are Remain. Our hearts are Remain. We need our Labour Party to be true to who we are and be loud and proud in support of Europe.”
“The only tool available to actually break this deadlock - we all know, even if we have not admitted it yet - is a public vote.”
- Labour Deputy Leader Tom Watson, 17 Jun 2019

We covered this in our article here.

Observations

This letter was reported in the national press. No-one else thought to analyse why these MPs might be starting to get so concerned that they felt they had to write to Jeremy Corbyn.

Why is this important?

Brexit Facts4EU.Org has been consistently advocating a mass public campaign of letters to MPs, warning them that they will be voted out at the next election if they don’t respect the Referendum vote and back a clean and full Brexit.

Thousands of people have responded to our own campaigns (the latest of which is here) and we are confident that the pressure is now starting to be felt by MPs representing Leave constituencies in particular.

Readers can rest assured that we are doing everything we can to persuade other pro-Brexit organisations to back our campaigns in full. We believe that if a concerted effort were made right now by ALL Brexit groups, we could influence and alter the result of any votes in Parliament to prevent Brexit.

If any readers are involved in any way with other Brexit groups, and if you believe that this approach is a sensible, essential and pragmatic way to stop undemocratic MPs from voting down Brexit, please email these groups and let them know.

Finally, if you value our work and can keep us going at this critical time, we're pretty desperate for funds. Quick and secure donation methods are below. We don't have corporate backers, only members of the public like you.

Brexit Facts4EU.Org, 25 Jun 2019

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Reader Comments 10

1. Butties , Tuesday, June 25, 2019, 06:17:

Don't see Yvette Coopers name in that list. But no surprise there then

2. barbara jell , Tuesday, June 25, 2019, 06:46:

I shall be sending this article to Jeremy Corbyn with a view to focusing his mind on the slippery slope down which Tom Watson and other complete hypocrites wish to send his Party.
Sightly off topic, do you have the NAMES of the 20 unspeakable Tory rebels who will allegedly try to topple the Govenrnment in the event of a 'no deal'? My (permanently) ex-Conservative son-in-law is of the opinion that these lunatics would conspire to bring in a Labour Government as a consequence because the latter would overturn Brexit and they are prepared to destroy their Party and their country to achieve this end.
What has the British public ever done to deserve such DROSS for politicians and Parliamentarians???

3. Lesley M , Tuesday, June 25, 2019, 06:56:

Wow, these MPs don't do many things in a hurry do they? The majority of them will always put their self interest ahead of everything else. I think you're right encouraging people to approach them from that angle. Most of our MPs are so ignorant that their selfisness overwrites the country's interest any day.

4. Sydney Ashurst , Tuesday, June 25, 2019, 07:28:

I only recognise four of the names from their activities in Parliament and the media.
The long serving MP and ex miner Dennis Skinner (Grammar School education in the 1940's) voted Leave.
He is a staunch brexiteer, unlike the federalist Clarke.

5. Chris , Tuesday, June 25, 2019, 10:12:

These Labour MPs could be crucial to stop a vote of no confidence. If the bastards such as Grieve, Letwin, Clarke, etc, go ahead with their threat to vote with Labour, we will be dependent on the Labour Leavers voting against.

6. Steven , Tuesday, June 25, 2019, 10:41:

Chris, such a scenario will REALLY put those Labour MPs into a tight corner then, won’t it? Do they vote alongside these Tory rebels to bring the Conservative Party government down and cause a general election that their party could possibly do very well in and maybe gain power or do they put their pro-Brexit convictions first by voting against thereby preserving Brexit but at the cost of the Tories continuing in office? It will be interesting not least for their party colleagues to see what way they would vote. I suspect that if they voted to preserve the Tory government they wouldn’t have many friends left in the House of Commons’s bar!

7. Chris , Tuesday, June 25, 2019, 11:37:

Steven, yes it is a dilemma for them.
If Corbyn gives in to the mounting pressure, and makes Labour a Remain party, then I think they will have few doubts about voting against their own party. Actually, many of them will probably defect to the Brexit Party.
If Boris loses the vote, and has to call an election, then all the Tory traitors will be deselected anyway. It seems highly likely that there would be a (perhaps unofficial) pact between the Tories and the Brexit Party, resulting in a Tory/BP coalition with a sizeable overall majority.

8. Sydney Ashurst , Tuesday, June 25, 2019, 13:40:

Remember Article 50 paragraph 3.
The Treaties shall cease to apply to the State in question from the date of entry into force of the withdrawal agreement or, failing that, two years after the notification referred to in paragraph 2, unless the European
Council, in agreement with the Member State concerned, unanimously decides to extend this period.
The two years expired on 29th March. We are currently on an extension to an extension ( which could be illegal) ending on 31st October. Legally we leave on that date with No Deal regardless of the Parliamentary numbers.
A no confidence vote followed by a GE does not change that but would create a Constitutional dilemma.

9. Adam Hiley , Tuesday, June 25, 2019, 17:26:

the only MP I have time for on there is John Mann don't get Me started on Stephen Kinnock son of windbag loads of Money Neil get rid of these Parasite troughers now

10. Jon, Wales , Tuesday, June 25, 2019, 22:13:

Time to call out EVERY anti-democratic ELECTED UK Member of Parliament with this simple statement by former Prime Minister Cameron that a primary school child can understand.
This is a straightforward no-nonsense reminder for MPs who still don't get it. Following this, a huge majority of MPs voted in favour of holding the referendum - so our 'wise' MPs knew it would go one way or the other.
NOTE TO MPs: THE ELECTORATE ARE NOT STUPID, SO GET ON WITH THE INSTRUCTION YOU WERE GIVEN?
https://www.youtube.com/wat...
(duration: 62 seconds).

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