If today’s election results end up with a PM or Chancellor Ed Miliband, what then?

An exclusive report looking at what might happen to us all under new leadership

Montage © Facts4EU.Org 2026

Specifically, here are some scary facts of what might happen under a Net Zero Chancellor

If today’s elections do indeed produce the decimation of the Labour vote across vast swathes of the country, with rapid moves to replace the leadership, then are we really going to see the economy run by a PM or Chancellor Miliband?

If so, what will a Net Zero Chancellor do? Are the rumours in any way true? Will we have roaring inflation, super-high mortgages, rents, taxes and business rates? Mass plant closures, entire industries gone, more people shirking than working?

Facts4EU, in collaboration with The Campaign for an Independent Britain (CIBUK.Org), and Stand for Our Sovereignty, attempts to benchmark some of the realities which could be facing us all, in a special report shared exclusively with GB News.

1. Oil and gas leaks: Our energy security, falls in tax revenues and job losses

We know from regular leaks that the current Chancellor has fallen out in Cabinet with the current Net Zero Secretary. Amongst the disagreements has been the use of the UK’s massive North Sea energy reserves.

Likely impacts: Thousands of jobs gone (Jackdaw alone would have employed 1,000+) and large tax revenues wiped out. More companies likely to leave the UK.

2. No plans to secure UK’s future outside ‘renewables’ – our next energy bills uncertain

Suggestions of the tax burden being eased for oil and gas companies will certainly be given no consideration, and any prospect of ‘de-linking’ world prices with UK prices would seem to be off the agenda.

Likely impacts: Households will continue to be at the mercy of the Iran War when it comes to bills. The lack of major tax revenues from home-grown oil and gas exploration will impact the Chancellor’s ability to pay for his rising bills.

Typical household energy bill predicted to jump by over £200 for the Quarter

The ‘price cap’ is a limit on what suppliers can charge domestic consumers per kilowatt hour of energy used, and on the standing charge. Under the Ofgen definition, a customer with a Typical Domestic Consumption Value uses 2,700kWh p.a. for electricity and 11,500kWh p.a. for gas. We thank the widely-used Cornwall Insight for the media exemption in using their forecast below.

3. Falling tax revenues, rising bills, will the cost of borrowing soar?

The cost of government borrowing has been much dearer all last year and this year so far, than it was under the brief period of Liz Truss, when she was castigated by the current Government.

Likely impacts: With a Chancellor generally to the left of Labour thinking, it seems improbable he will reduce benefit spending or any public expenditure. Bond markets will then react fast and the already-high levels of payments on the country’s debt will increase at the same time as the debt itself increases.

Below we show spending on interest payments to date, with the OBR’s 5-year prediction.

4. Will a Chancellor Miliband take any action over the pool of 1.3m inactive young Brits?

The increase in those receiving benefits has been simply staggering. Will Chancellor Miliband act on ‘sick notes for life’? If not, this bill is simply unsustainable. Firstly we show the problem with the younger generation, then with the benefits bill as a whole.

5. The soaring welfare bill

Facts4EU has looked at data from the Department for Work & Pensions as well as from the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) although we have yet to see an accurate OBR forecast. These are the figures in real terms, after we accounted for inflation.

The OBR forecast that this will rise further, based on the Government’s current policies, to more than £400bn in 2030/31, just five years from now. The OBR often underestimates the debt build-up near to an election so we expect this to increase.

Likely impacts: Ed Miliband’s political beliefs suggest he is unlikely to take the drastic action required on the welfare budget. This will be unsustainable based on the current poor economic growth and will have to be borrowed, at ever-increasing rates, further adding to the annual bill. If taxes don't rise the markets will respond even more strongly.

Finally, whatever happens today, change looks likely

Next week the People’s Channel will be publishing a second report from Facts4EU, featuring additional, significant areas affecting readers such as inflation and other key factors impacting our daily lives.

If you are not already a Member and you want to be ‘ahead of the game’, now is the time to join!

[ Sources: ] Politicians and journalists can contact us for details, as ever.

Brexit Facts4EU.Org, Thurs 07 May 2026

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