Non, non, non, Monsieur ex-Premier Ministre, you got it the wrong way around

Starmer must not let Britain become like France

Montage © Facts4EU.Org 2025

If Sir Keir doesn’t act, the UK will descend into the financial and political chaos seen across the Channel

Yesterday in Paris, the inevitable came to pass as President Macron continued to break all records of the Fifth Republic by losing his sixth Prime Minister, François Bayrou.

Emmanuel Macron also holds the record for appointing the shortest-lived French Prime Minister in history, whom all Brexiteers will be delighted to hear was none other than the bête noire of the Brexit negotiations, Michel (“Ze clock eez teeking”) Barnier. The silver-haired Frenchman upset his parliamentary colleagues as much as he had done most British people who had voted Leave in the EU Referendum.

Yesterday evening yet another misfortune befell President Macron, when he received the vote count following the confidence debate called by his sixth Prime Minister. With the result going 364 against and 194 for – a majority of 170 against, it had never been in any doubt as we stated in previous articles.

France will soon be in serious trouble

Like the UK, France has massive debts to service. Fortunately for most readers, the UK is still in a little better shape financially as far as its debt to GDP ratio is concerned. If including France’s share of recent EU debt (which one should), the country’s percentage now stands close to 120%. The UK’s is currently just under 100%, although this looks set to rise by year end unless a miracle happens for Rachel Reeves.

Below we show the latest figures from the OECD for 2024. Please note that Japan's figure is for 2023 which is the last data available from them.

Brexit Facts4EU.Org Summary

OECD debt to GDP ratios for 2024

Accessed 09 Sept 2024

French PM couldn't even get lower Budget cuts approved than Reeves

The outgoing PM’s error was in presenting a budget to the Assemblée Nationale which involved cuts of a modest £33bn or so. This is, frankly, the barest minimum he could propose with any hope of keeping the world’s bond markets on side. Even that was too much for the fragmented majority of MPs’ and his additional proposal of a two day reduction in the generous number of French Bank Holidays was treated almost as an insult by some.

We predict that the deficit will exceed 6% by the end of the year, and bond yields will continue to rise as investors see no prospect of France putting its economy in order. It was only 18 months ago that Italy’s bond yields were running at 2% above those of France. Today, despite Italy continuing to have a higher debt to GDP ratio than France, the difference is virtually zero, as investors see Giorgia Meloni’s measures improving the state’s finances there.

One of the difficulties is that a clear majority of French people are so used to their entitlements from the State they see no reason to give them up and far too many politicians have told them they don’t have to. The added essential of increasing the retirement age from its current level of 62 is also seen as an outrage by most French people.

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A little treat for the francophones amongst our readership

Over the past 10 years it has frequently been useful that we have had linguists on the team. (Sadly there is now only one left, as a result of our donations becoming fewer and fewer.) Our ability to read and watch in several foreign langauges has meant we have had an insight on many stories which have not appeared elsewhere.

Whether readers understand French or not, we thought you might be interested to watch some of the proceedings of the French parliament, at least. You will see their Prime Minister, due to resign to President Macron today, as well as the leaders of several of the main political parties, including of course Marine Le Pen. You may be interested in contrasting the behaviours with those in the UK Parliament. Simply click on the picture below to take you to the official French site and watch the events unfold.

If not, then just ignore this and scroll down for more on this story, in English!

Credit: L'Assemblée Nationale TV 2025 - click to watch

What next for Macron?

All the President can now do is pick from another of those who will put themselves forward as a way of gaining more recognition, with a view to running in the Presidential race in 2027 to replace him. If the person concerned has any sense of right and wrong, he or she will propose a budget which contains major cuts in government expenditure. If they do so, however, they may then rival Michel Barnier as the PM with the shortest period in office of all.

Observations

In the last few years we have remarked on several occasions how France is becoming increasingly ungovernable. Recently it could be said that it has in fact reached the point where that term could be definitively used to describe the country.

According to opinion polls, the majority of Britons do not like the way the United Kingdom is being governed. One thing that can be said, however, is that it does have a government and that the government is able to enact its policies. People may not like those policies, but at least there is a functioning government, after a fashion....

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[ Sources: The OECD | French government websites ] Politicians and journalists can contact us for details, as ever.

Brexit Facts4EU.Org, Tues 09 Sept 2025

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Reader Comments 8

1. Old Albion , Tuesday, September 09, 2025, 07:42:

France in a politcal mess? I'm struggling to care ......

2. Sparky , Tuesday, September 09, 2025, 08:12:

A significant difference are Govt Bond rates. 10 yr for France around 3.4% for UK around 4.6%. Repaying UK debt is more expensive reflecting confidence in UK economy which hasn’t changed a great deal since Liz Truss mini budget.

3. NH , Tuesday, September 09, 2025, 09:02:

2. Sp.
France has a 10 yr Bond rate of 3.4% but inflation is 0.9% so markets are demanding a real return of 2.5%. The UK 10 yr Bond rate is 4.6% but inflation is presently 3.8% so markets are demanding a real return of 0.8%.
.
UK Debt costs are extremely high but the Government can quite easily control this by controlling spending to reduce inflation. Unfortunately the Labour party do not seem to have any desire to do this. The worst outcome will be if UK inflation comes down because we enter a recession. Unfortunately for France and the Eurozone they have no control of their economy until they have a functioning Government. The proposed 50% increase to EU membership fees will definitely not help their current situation !

4. Sparky , Tuesday, September 09, 2025, 09:09:

3 NH. That’s a good attempt to spin the bond yield difference, good try.

5. NH , Tuesday, September 09, 2025, 09:42:

4. Sp
Your acting like I am the only person stating that France has a huge debt problem. You need to get out a bit a bit more and leave your EU focussed delusional bubble.
.
The situation is far worse than what I have stated above. France is struggling with it's present debt payments but the structure of it's debt means that even if it controls spending the cost of it's debt is due to rise by over 60% by 2029. The UK is presently has very high debt costs but it's managing to pay current debt levels and if it chooses to control inflation the cost will come down substantially by 2029.
.
I know which position I would prefer to be in. However your response above demonstrates that you have no interest in factual information !

6. No Idea , Tuesday, September 09, 2025, 09:54:

Yeah, who's spinning? The rates have been climbing inexorably since the Covid splurge. Nothing to do with Liz Truss except for a brief spike.

7. KB , Tuesday, September 09, 2025, 18:25:

It all depends to whom the "debt" is owed. I notice no-one is concerned about Japan -it's all money owed to themselves.
Here in the UK much of the debt is owed from one office in the BoE to another office in the BoE.
These debts are nothing like a debt as most people would understand the term.
The government creates money out of thin air when it "borrows" money. The banking sector similarly creates money out of thin air when it "lends" money for business and property.
Bonds are bought by our pension schemes so that is money owed to ourselves.
The important thing to note is how much of the so-called debt is external debt, and I don't know how France compared on that measure.

8. AlwaysBlameSomeoneElse , Tuesday, September 09, 2025, 21:24:

The UK government’s annual debt interest payment is significantly more than France’s combined annual debt interest payment and their annual contribution to the EU.

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