Without the UK, the EU would have suffered a £580bn global goods trade deficit since Brexit

Where’s the gratitude? And Sir Keir wants to be nice to them with his ‘EU re-set?

Montage © Facts4EU.Org 2025

Revealed: The EU has made a goods trade surplus of over €3/4 trillion (£670 bn) with the UK since Brexit

An investigation by the Brexit Facts4EU.Org think-tank and research team has revealed that from Brexit in February 2020 until the latest month’s figures for June 2025, the EU’s external goods trade would have resulted in a €670 bn (approx £580 bn GBP) deficit, without the United Kingdom to trade with.

The Prime Minister entered office vowing to ‘re-set’ relations with the EU. This is certainly a promise he has kept, with consequences which penetrate far and wide across all manner of activities, as well as impacting deeply on the fundamental issue of sovereignty of the British people as represented in a sovereign parliament following Brexit.

In this report we contrast the astonishing reliance the EU has on retaining the UK as its ‘Treasure Island’ – the country which is its largest market – with Sir Keir Starmer’s apparently oblivious attitude to the fact that he holds some very major cards in any negotiations and instead has entered negotiations played the weak supplicant.

1. Sir Keir’s ‘upper hand’ – the EU’s absolute reliance on the UK’s market for its goods

Below we show the results for the EU, comparing two scenarios: the EU trading with a world including Brexit Britain, and trading with one without.

Brexit Facts4EU.Org Summary

EU’s global goods trade surplus/deficit, with and without the UK to trade goods with

Feb 2020 – Jun 2025 (first month after UK left EU until latest month with figures available)

EU’s world trade balance Including UK : €102.3 bn (approx 90 bn)
EU’s world trade balance Excluding UK : -€670.3 bn (approx -£580 bn)

Who cares about trade surpluses and deficits? The EU, that’s who

Every month the EU reports on whether it has experienced a goods trade surplus or deficit with the rest of the World, which includes the UK as it is no longer part of the EU. The component of the EU’s global goods trade balance represented by the UK has been 100% reliable, producing a trade surplus every month without fail.

Facts4EU have done another great service pointing out that the UK is the EU's treasure island. When it comes to goods and food the UK is the customer and the EU the supplier. So why does the government always give in to outrageous EU demands on fish, money and laws? Customers do not have to take dictation from suppliers. We can always go elsewhere to buy if the EU demands too much.
The whole EU re-set is game set and match to the EU. The government should listen to Facts4EU to have the facts to stand up for the UK and get a deal fitting for the EU's best customer.
- The Rt Hon Sir John Redwood, former Secretary of State, commenting to Facts4EU.Org and GB News, 02 Sept 2025

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Brexit Facts4EU.Org Summary

EU’s monthly trade surplus with the UK

Feb 2020 – Jun 2025 (first month after UK left EU until latest month with figures available)

This all adds up

This becomes even more significant when looking at the EU’s cumulative goods trade balance with the UK over the period in question, from when the UK left the EU: Feb 2020 – Jun 2025 (latest month’s data).

Brexit Facts4EU.Org Summary

EU’s cumulative monthly trade surplus with the UK

Feb 2020 – Jun 2025 (first month after UK left EU until latest month with figures available)

2. The reason this isn’t purely hypothetical is because of Sir Keir Starmer

The reaction of Rejoiners like Sir Keir Starmer, who led ‘the People’s Vote’ campaign to overturn the British people’s democratic decision in the EU Referendum, will doubtless be to call all of the above irrelevant and hypothetical. After all, the UK and the EU are hardly likely to stop trading with each other, regardless of anything that happens in the relationship. The reason it is definitely not irrelevant is because of Sir Keir himself.

Thus far in his negotiations with the EU he has secured not one single quantifiable benefit for the UK. Instead he has surrendered more sovereignty and given away actual quantifiable concessions of shocking proportions, such as giving access to UK waters to the EU for a further 12 years. In return for this gift affecting the livelihoods of fishermen across the country, as well as the economic wellbeing of our coastal communities which are badly in need of a boost, he asked for (and was given) NOTHING in return.

Observations

No-one should ever go into a negotiation wanting to make friends. Yet all the emphasis from Sir Keir in the run-up to the start of negotiations with the EU was about just that. He stressed this over and over and talked of 'the relationship'.

The simple fact is that it has always been the EU that has defined hostility in its dealings with the UK, from the very first moment. Who can forget EU Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker's first statement on the morning of the EU Referendum result: "This will not be an amicable divorce."

He was right, it has not been, but who's fault is that? The EU started the talks like the worst kind of scorned lover and have continued in that vein ever since.

Unfortunately it seems the Prime Minister is so besotted with the EU he thinks they can do no wrong. He certainly would not consider our report today relevant, showing as it does just what a powerful position we are in. As a result, the EU will continue to walk all over him, as they have been doing from the start.

Please, please help us to carry on our vital work in defence of independence, sovereignty, democracy and freedom by donating today. Thank you.

[ Sources: EU Commission | EU official statistics agency Eurostat ] Politicians and journalists can contact us for details, as ever.

Brexit Facts4EU.Org, Tues 02 Sept 2025

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Reader Comments 17

1. Sparky , Tuesday, September 02, 2025, 07:36:

All this shows is how reliant and connected the UK Is to the EU. The deficit has grown because UK exports of goods and food have fallen because we are now outside the EU.
.
Brexitears didn’t get what they wanted so they had a tantrum called Brexit.

2. Sparky , Tuesday, September 02, 2025, 07:59:

And what would be funny if it wasn’t so serious, is that we left because of immigration (see you gov tracker issues facing the country)

3. MajorGWL MC OBE , Tuesday, September 02, 2025, 08:16:

1. Sparky. The persistent shortcomings in the UK's current leadership remain evident, especially in tackling critical challenges such as economic stability, healthcare reform, and environmental policies. Nonetheless, there is reason for optimism—significant transformations are projected after 2029, with notable shifts expected in governance strategies, public policy priorities, and international relations. These changes will redefine the nation’s trajectory, and those who prioritise external organisations over their own country may find themselves increasingly isolated.

4. Mr Sceptic , Tuesday, September 02, 2025, 08:24:

Catherine McBride had been advocating that Brexit would result in trade diversification away from the EU.
But in Dec 2024, she had to admit that ‘Unfortunately, there has been little change in UK import supply chains despite Brexit’.
It seems that the UK has failed to put Catherine McBride’s economic theory into practice. Either Catherine McBride’s has underestimated the difficulties in applying her economic theories to the real world. Or Catherine McBride’s economic theories have some fundamental flaws.

5. NH , Tuesday, September 02, 2025, 09:19:

4. Sceptic, 1.Sp
You seem to be very confused about what Catherine McBride's work is !
She is not proposing "new economic theories" she is analysing trade in detail and producing specific reports showing trade codes to see where any changes to trade have actually occurred. This allows anybody who disagrees to show where her analysis is incorrect, which so far nobody has !
.
What her work clearly shows is since Brexit re-exports of clothing, footwear and many foodstuffs were redirected so they no longer qualify as UK exports, this has very little effect on the UK companies involved. The other main area of change is exports of energy products and products that need large amounts of energy to be produced. These declined not just to the EU but also to the rest of the world, which obviously isn't because of Brexit. Since Brexit Government policies have reduced UK energy production and increased energy prices to uncompetitive levels. The very positive news is since Brexit high value service exports to the rest of the world have boomed.
.
The other main factor is the EU is running out of markets it can trade with. It has major trade tensions with China and the USA and the result is it's desperate to sell to any market it can. The result is many of the EU exporters to the UK are not making profits. The German Auto Industry has lost over 50,000 jobs in the last year alone and this has wider implications for the rest of the German economy. The French Government is likely to collapse next week and Le Penn may force a general election which would probably kill Macron. All of this is because of it's economic problems.
.
Mario Draghi has recently stated that the EU is failing to compete and it need to increase it's budget to between 750 and 800 Billion Euros a year for many years just to
survive. The EU is presently not a very attractive market !

6. AlwaysBlameSomeoneElse , Tuesday, September 02, 2025, 12:39:

What if a majority of UK businesses and customers prefer less red tape with EU-countries instead of more ‘sovereignty’?

7. Gazzablack , Tuesday, September 02, 2025, 13:59:

6, A
What if they don't?

8. AlwaysBlameSomeoneElse , Tuesday, September 02, 2025, 14:53:

7 Gazzablack … ‘what if they don’t’ … then more people would have voted for Reform UK than Labour in the 2024 election?

9. AlwaysBlameSomeoneElse , Tuesday, September 02, 2025, 15:16:

7 Gazzablack … ‘what if they don’t’ … then UK customers and businesses would not import 51% of all UK imports from the EU?

10. AlwaysBlameSomeoneElse , Tuesday, September 02, 2025, 15:28:

9 Gazzablack … ‘what if they don’t’ … then UK customers and businesses would not import more than 70% of the total UK food/agricultural imports from the EU?

17 comments, page 1 of 2

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