52,000 reasons to be relieved Yvette Cooper has been deported to the Foreign Office

But several more reasons to be worried about her “one in, one out” replacement

Montage © Facts4EU.Org 2025

Starmer has “smashed the gangs” at the Home and Foreign Offices – What can we now expect?

Perfectly timed to disrupt the opening day of the Reform UK Conference and reduce the TV airtime it received, Angela Rayner did her duty by the Labour Party and made her long-awaited resignation announcement on Friday morning (05 August 2025). This finally gave Sir Keir Starmer the opportunity to deliver on his promise to “smash the gangs”, except that the gangs in question were the government’s own teams of ministers at the Home Office and Foreign Office.

This report looks briefly at the legacy of Yvette Cooper’s tenure as Home Secretary and the potential implications of the reshuffle.

52,245 reasons to be glad to see Yvette Cooper no longer in charge of immigration

Before her deportation to the FCDO, the Home Secretary had been in post since Labour took power on 05 July 2024. Prior to this, as Sir John Redwood points out in his article this morning, she had had many years of Home Office experience as the Shadow minister and as a result of her chairmanship of the Home Affairs Committee. In those 14 months in power she presided over the fastest rise in history in the number of illegal migrants arriving on the UK’s southern shores. William the Conqueror’s army was somewhat smaller, at around 8,000.

Below we present a comparison of the 14-month period of Yvette Cooper’s tenure with the same 14-month period starting a year earlier. We have used the same calendar period even though it overlaps by two months (and by two governments), because the migrant numbers are very weather dependent and so this is the fairest way.

The jump in illegal boat migrants this year (2025)

As readers can see, during Yvette Cooper’s time as Home Secretary, 52,245 illegal boat migrants arrived, significantly more than the same period starting a year earlier.

To show the increase without any overlaps, we are also providing the figures for last year from 01 Jan - 04 Jul 2024 (up to the general election) compared to the same period this year (01 Jan – 04 Jul 2025). These figures directly compare the difference between the Conservative Home Secretary (James Cleverly) and the new Labour appointment (Yvette Cooper).

Then of course there is the famous ‘one in, one out’ deal with the French

As the pressure built on the Home Secretary with the rapidly increasing numbers on her watch, her answer was to do a deal with the French to return the illegal migrants whence they had come, but then to accept an equal number in return.

The French deal entered into force on 06 August, exactly one month before Yvette Cooper was substituted by Sir Keir Starmer for Shabana Mahmood. We might therefore describe it as a month-long penalty shoot-out, and here are the scores.

Not one illegal boat migrant has been taken back by France. We should also add that for 18 days of the 30 of its existence – more than half the total period – the unseasonal weather made it impossible for any boats to set off. If the weather had been more representative, well over 5,000 would have arrived in that period.

Facts4EU published the first analysis of the text of this embarrassingly egregious treaty here. The entire premise of the deal – effectively akin to a prisoner-swap – was bizarre to begin with, as it will make no difference to net immigration whatsoever, but when the details are studied it turns from the bizarre into the ridiculous.

Sir Keir’s ‘one in, one out’ deal - Yvette Cooper’s replacement and her elevation to Foreign Secretary

Yvette Cooper’s replacement is Shabana Mahmood, previously the Justice Secretary. The early signs are that not only is this a personnel replacement, but that it will be accompanied by a complete U-turn on previous policies by the Prime Minister. The first indications of this are his announcement that army barracks are to be used to house migrants and we await a full statement of this and any other new policies. It would appear that these will all be taken from Reform UK and the Conservatives.

There are, however, certain concerns regarding the fundamental beliefs of the new Home Secretary. We cite just two examples below.

Shabana Mahmood is of the view that withdrawing from the ECHR would put the UK in the same club as Russia and Belarus. Perhaps she is unaware of all the other countries in the world who are not members of the Convention, such as the US, Canada, and Australia. These are hardly what could be described as pariah states.

Blocking deportations

The new Home Secretary’s background is that of someone who has always taken a very liberal view on immigration. For example in 2020 she was one of those who signed a letter to the then Prime Minister, urging him to stop the deportation of convicted Jamaican illegal migrants, one of whom subsequently went on to commit murder by machete attack in the UK. Here is what she said in Parliament in the successful fight to stop the deportation flight.

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To what degree do Ms Mahmood’s religious beliefs trump all?

We would simply observe that if she meant what she said in the second sentence, we would like to have asked her more about what this might mean in practice in the political world she inhabits.

Gaza, a Palestinian state, Israel, and UK protests

Further important thoughts on the reshuffle, from the Rt Hon Sir John Redwood

There are many other aspects to this reshuffle which it is not possible to cover in one report such as this. For example, there is the question as to the experience of Yvette Cooper in Home Affairs contrasted with her absence of the same in respect of the UK’s relations with the rest of the world. She will have a complex brief to master as the new Foreign Secretary and there is almost no time to bring her up to speed on certain pressing issues.

We can, however, recommend an article by someone who has seen more reshuffles than most. Published early this morning, we found the thoughts of the Rt Hon Sir John Redwood to be very thought-provoking. He raises a great many questions which are very troubling and does so concisely and powerfully.

[ Sources: Hansard | Government press statements | Labour Party website | Home Office | X.com | Instagram | YouTube | House of Commons Library | Muslim TV ] Politicians and journalists can contact us for details, as ever.

Brexit Facts4EU.Org, Mon 08 Sept 2025

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