German trade figures are tacit admission of responsibility for Trump’s EU tariff attack

Facts4EU’s analysis of Germany’s latest trade figures will not please President Trump

Montage © Facts4EU.Org 2025

For Germany, the UK remains its ‘Treasure Island’, selling us nearly twice as much as we sell them

Germany has recorded an export surplus in trade with the United States each year for over three decades.

Facts4EU’s analysis of the latest figures just published in the database of the German Federal Statistical Office (Destatis) have produced some interesting results which go a long way to explaining why President Trump has his eyes set very firmly on the EU when it comes to his policy objective of reducing the trade deficit of the United States.

Whilst the President talks of trade with the EU as a whole – and has been doing do in ever-more disparaging terms - a significant part of the trade deficit with the bloc is caused by just one country: Germany. For that country alone, last year (2024) this surplus with the US hit $75.6bn.

It becomes clear from the latest figures that despite Germany’s overall economic woes, as evidenced by it being in recession for the last two years, the problem is not getting better for President Trump.

Brexit Facts4EU.Org Summary

1. Germany’s trade surplus with the US - Jan-Mar 2025 (Q1)

The latest trade data out of Germany will not please the US President

In the first quarter of this year - and therefore before the entry into force of higher tariffs on exports from the EU to the United States – Germany once again recorded a considerable export surplus with the US.

From Jan-Mar this year, Germany exported goods to the value of $43.5bn to the US and imported goods to the value of $24.8bn from it. The trade balance in goods in Q1 therefore records a trade surplus in goods of $24.8bn. As the German Federal Statistical Office points out, exports from Germany exceeded imports from the US by almost 75%.

So far this year, at $24.8bn Germany's export surplus in the trade of goods with the US was the highest among all its trading partners in the World. It was 38% higher than the surplus with France, its neighbour and the country with which Germany has the second largest export surplus.

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And how is Germany doing with its ‘Treasure Island’? (The UK)

In the first three months of this year Germany exported $21.1bn of goods to the United Kingdom and bought a mere $11.1bn of British goods in return.

Brexit Facts4EU.Org Summary 2

2. Germany’s trade surplus with the UK – Jan-Mar 2025 (Q1)

In very round numbers, Germany exported not far off twice as much to the UK as the UK exported to them.

Observations

With its exports to the US under severe threat from President Trump's threats of a 50% tariff if the EU will not negotiate reasonably, Germany is very worried. As our figures show, the US is Germany's most important export market by a wide margin. As Germany's economy relies on exports far more than does the UK's, any hit to exports to the US will be noticeable in its overall GDP, large though that is.

With regard to Germany's trade with the UK, Chancellor Merz and his colleagues must be rubbing their hands with glee at the thought of sucking the UK back in ever closer, under all its countless laws and restictions on trade which the Prime Minister seems very keen to commit us to. This time it's even better for them, as the UK will not even have a vote on any of the laws which control what we can and cannot do. These laws will of course be subject to 'dynamic alignment', meaning that the moment the EU changes a law, that law must automatically apply in the UK also.

This is the madness we are now embarked upon under this Prime Minister. Facts4EU will be publishing a great deal more about this in the coming days and weeks.

Returning to US matters, it remains to be seen whether Trump will be able to secure the kinds of concessions he is seeking from the EU. It would overturn years of the EU's dictatorial stance negotiating with much less powerful economies, where it could impose all manner of restrictions and regulations. In fact, for a deal to be done it may be nothing less than a complete sea-change in the thinking processes of the Commission.

And talking of the sea, we are currently working on an exciting new article about the EU and the UK's fishing industry, in collaboration with our colleagues at the UK Fishing Campaign. We hope to be able to publish this tomorrow. Don't miss it!

Please, please help us to carry on our vital work in defence of independence, sovereignty, democracy and freedom by donating today. Thank you.

[ Sources: The German Federal Statistical Office, May 2025 ] Politicians and journalists can contact us for details, as ever.

Brexit Facts4EU.Org, Tues 27 May 2025

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Reader Comments 8

1. LuxuryBalloon , Tuesday, May 27, 2025, 07:17:

I am sure the weak EU will soon cave in to Trump’s demands. The USA hold all the cards as the weak EU needs Trump more than he needs them. And Trump will be able to tell the American people that he negotiated the ‘most beautiful deal in the world’.

2. Sparky , Tuesday, May 27, 2025, 08:16:

The UK trade deficit with Germany is smaller when services are included, £14.2 billion for the whole of 2024. (figures above are for the first Q 2025).
.
Trumps threat of tariffs for the EU has already been pushed back. A deal will be done just as it has with China and the UK etc. The world has become dependant on China being the manufacturer for the world whilst manufacturing in the UK and Europe has declined.
.
German car exports are a significant part of the economy, German cars have been the status symbol for UK car owners for the last few decades, but their industry faces a much bigger threat from the Far East with the move toward electric vehicles. It is surprising how many BYD and KIA cars are now on UK roads.
.
Whist in the UK we have been squabbling over Brexit and Fish, the Far East have continued to grow and are overtaking the west.

3. NH , Tuesday, May 27, 2025, 10:10:

2. Sp
You say "the Far East has continued to grow". Are they in a political Union ?
.
Germany's largest export sector is Automotive. Here's some recent results for Q1 2025 (Before USA Tariffs). The following are Operating Results Q12025 compared with Q12024
.
Volkswagen -37%
BMW -25%
Mercedes Benz -43% ( -29% after exceptional items)
Porsche - 40%
.
Germany's second largest export sector is pharmaceutical products. All of the EU's major pharmaceutical companies have more than 50% of their sales in the USA. Since Trump's tariffs threat EU Pharma companies (including Switzerland) have committed to spend an additional $110 Billion in USA production.
.
The bigger threat for the EU is Trump's insistence on "equivalent pricing", although it's short on details at the moment. Most pharma companies admit that it's the USA market that funds R&D on new medicines. This is a big threat as it's estimated that the EU pays between 80% and 30% of USA prices via the "EU reference pricing model". The USA claim the EU is "freeloading" off the USA and they are determined to change this. This will also effect the UK but to a smaller extent.

4. LuxuryBalloon , Tuesday, May 27, 2025, 12:31:

‘Make an announcement. Wait for the the fallout. Reverse the announcement. Say something about Biden. Repeat.’
Process check: where are we currently in the process?

5. gazzablack , Tuesday, May 27, 2025, 17:21:

In March 2022, with the Russo / Ukraine war well underway, and sanctions on Russia in place, EU car sales to Kazakhstan jumped from approx. 20mn Euros to approx. 180mn Euros.
.
Sales to Kazakhs? No - Sales to Russians
And Brussels has turned a blind eye to it, for over THREE years
.
2, Sparkless
Pay attention Hiroo
.
In the shadow of Trump tariffs and the recent UK-US agreement, Toyota is expanding at its UK Burnaston plant, adding production of the GR Corolla to export to the US - and investing $56 Million in refit.
.
This wouldn't be happening without Brexit.
.
.
European companies should urgently ramp up manufacturing capacity in Britain to avoid the worst effects of Donald Trump’s tariff regime, a top accountancy firm has said.
According to Alex Altmann, head of the German desk at Lubbock Fine, the 10 per cent US import tariff agreed as part of newly inked UK-US trade pact has left Britain “well placed to act as a bridge between the US and EU”, and should spark EU-based manufacturers to prepare relocation plans.

6. LuxuryBalloon , Tuesday, May 27, 2025, 17:44:

5 Gazza … would it not make more sense for EU based manufacturers to relocate some of their production to the USA … instead of to the UK?

7. Gazzablack , Tuesday, May 27, 2025, 18:37:

6, LB
.
Well, why don't you ask then?

8. LuxuryBalloon , Tuesday, May 27, 2025, 21:31:

7 Gazza … We currently export about 100,000 cars a year to the USA. I asked Trump why he is hammering our potential to grow by introducing a whopping 27.5% tariff on any car exported above that quota.
He said: America First … What is concerning is that many Brits are supporting Trump on this.
How is this trade deal, that Trump negotiated with us, helping us to grow our car industry? Especially now we have these great opportunities post-Brexit to leverage our Brexit freedoms.
How has Trump improved the opportunities for our car industry to grow its export to the USA? … when compared to the hardly-any tariffs we had under Biden?
Trump has made it worse!

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